CFHC Talkback For News Story #104:
Newest Talkback: 05:21 PM 09-20 EDT

TD#12 Reforms South of Cuba
08:04 PM EDT - 19 September 2000

And I just got back from a trip that took me longer than expected (not by choice).

We'll be tracking it, and more information will come soon...]

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for TD#12. From Michael Bryson.

Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports
Satellite images at: [Visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [Infrared] (infrared), and [Water Vapor] (water vapor)
Loops: Visible Loop - Infrared Loop - Water Vapor Loop
A nice animated Water Vapor Image
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)
StormCarib.com has reports from folks in the Caribbean islands themselves and is worth checking out when storms approach the Caribbean.
Ouragans.com Français -- L'information sur des ouragans comprenant beaucoup de liens.
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

Show All Comments | Show Previous 39 Comments
Displaying Talkbacks #27 - #47 (of 47 total)
Weakend (#27)
Posted by: Darcy Location: Ontario, Canada
Posted On 06:44AM 20-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNTXNQRSNTV*)

its dieing!
THIS IS ONE WEIRD BIRD (#28)
Posted by: Mary Location: Lakeland
Posted On 06:57AM 20-Sep-2000 with id (QRNWWNQVRNRR*)

The TD#12 is looking extremely sickly this morning. I would not be surprised to see it bite the dust by noon. But hey ! surprise me!
TD #12 (#29)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 07:28AM 20-Sep-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

After looking like it was dying during the night, the subject system is re-firing convection this morning and may keep TD ststus at 11 am. Things change so quickly, and I was surprised by the lack of stengthening over night. This may surprise us again though, as convection is quickly firing up around (near) the "center". We'll see how it goes this morning. The area in the western GOM still may have a chance of developing, albeit slim. Systems have just had a tough time deveoping this year. Conditions seem ideal then POOF! We're probably lucky for this. We'll see if out luck holds out. But there's still lots of time left in the Hurricane season. It only takes one storm to bring destruction so keep on guard. cheers!!
Why?? (#30)
Posted by: Alex K
Posted On 08:18AM 20-Sep-2000 with id (VSNTRNQTQNQXV*)

I just don't understand. The environment where td12 is seems favorable for developement. The only reason I can think of is that possibly it has no closed circulation, and if that was the case it wouldn't be strengthening.
This hurricane season (#31)
Posted by: Bruce Location: Palm Bay Florida
Posted On 08:39AM 20-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNRQS*)

Does anyone have any feedback on what is going on this hurricane season. For all the activity that we had this year, Alberto seems to be the only one that has had its act together. So far this hurricane season has been strange, and I quess it will stay that way for the rest of the season.
Hey Guys, Listen Up!! (#32)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 08:41AM 20-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNRPR*)

First of all, this system may appear to be "dying out" on sat imagery; however, it's early morning and lots of things could happen during the day. Let's look at what Dr. Lyons said yesterday (I forgot who posted it) that the easterlies would kill it. Apparantly, it DID not kill it. Also, Dr. Lyons retracted that earlier statement later on (about 8:50pm) and said that the easterlies would stay behind it, improving its chance for development. Also, if I am reading the latest advisory right, this system is over land and that would weaken it. Another thing that I don't know the answer to is this: would the name it, unname it, rename it and unname it again and again? Perhaps. Could the fact that our NOAA aircraft are restricted to certain air space (at the risk of being shot down by Cuba) affect what they find in the next recon flight? Perhaps. All points to ponder. I would definitely watch it today and see what happens. If it looks the same way in 12 hours (or even 6, for that matter) then I would say "bye-bye birdie". For now, though, just keep watching.
MJO (#33)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 08:46AM 20-Sep-2000 with id (QYYNRRWNQSQNSQ*)

Madem Jula Ocilation i think that speld right who knows. Any ways it is wierd atmospheric disturbance that usaly sits over the indian ocean but is now over the atlantic this year it is being blamed for all this. I dont know what it does but its doing it good
good bye #12 (#34)
Posted by: nick
Posted On 08:48AM 20-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNXR*)

it's dead
Nick (#35)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 09:03AM 20-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNQYQ*)

Seen the latest infrared picture? It doesn't look dead to me.
dead (#36)
Posted by: nick
Posted On 09:19AM 20-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYVNRX*)

only time will tell...it's dead
TO THE OTHER NICK (#37)
Posted by: NICK Location: ORLANDO FL
Posted On 09:35AM 20-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNQXX*)

POST YOUR LOCATION SO PEOPLE DONT THINK IM THE IDIOT POSTING / THANKS/ AND TWO IT LOOKS LIKE IT IS FLARING UP / NO OFFENSE TO THE TERM IDIOT, GREAT SITE AS ALWAYS
Re 1971 (#38)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 09:42AM 20-Sep-2000 with id (QRYNQQUNRSUNQYP*)

Hi, Frank. Actually, I checked 1971. Fern was already well inland by the time Edith made it into the Gulf. I admit that it was very close, though.
dead (#39)
Posted by: Doug Spangler Location: sarasota
Posted On 09:54AM 20-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQTTNQNTR*)

Watching a long continuous IR enhanced loop leads me to the conclusion that there is no definite llcc, and what there was(is?) of one passed over land, the western portion of Cuba, and is now over water...a large convection flare is over the land area, south of this point and a dot of convection now beginning on the east...not much there, in any event ...the main feeder band is deepening and pulling closer to the point I think the center may be...there is serious doubt this survived over night enough to merit continued status as a cyclone, IMO...
THIS IS WEIRD (#40)
Posted by: L.T. Location: Pensacola, FL
Posted On 10:05AM 20-Sep-2000 with id (VTNQRNQPUNQWQ*)

WHAT A JOKE OF A SEASON THIS HAS BEEN!

IT ONLY TAKES ONE THOUGH!!!
Come Back #3 for Dep 12 (#41)
Posted by: Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 10:31AM 20-Sep-2000 with id (QRNQSNRTXNS*)

Looking at the latest IR and vis loop, Dep 12 circulation is still there, and convection better than it was last night and closer to the center. IMO this thing still has a chance to do something, say get to a Cat 1 maybe.... Best chance for impact would be northern Gulf Coast area, say between NO and Panama City... Then again maybe not, what the hell do I know... not much... have a great day yall
NWS MIAMI SAYS IT'S ALIVE (#42)
Posted by: Richie Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Posted On 10:36AM 20-Sep-2000 with id (QVUNQVQNSNQT*)

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
950 AM EDT WED SEP 20 2000

TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA ACCORDING
TO SAT PIX AND LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION FIRING UP AGAIN. GFDL
STRENGTHENS IT A BIT TODAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
Yes IT is (#43)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 11:06AM 20-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNTNTPNRTP*)


TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL

11 AM EDT WED SEP 20 2000



THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE IS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN

POORLY-DEFINED AND NON-EXISTENT. THE BEST ESTIMATE...BASED ON A

LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST WIND AT CABO SAN ANTONIO CUBA AT 12Z...IS THAT

IT IS CROSSING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NOAA

HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTED 35 KT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS EAST OF THE

CENTER AND CONVECTION IS INCREASING NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THUS...IT WILL NOT BE DECLARED DISSIPATED YET.




Watch This (#44)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 12:14PM 20-Sep-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

Don't give up on this system yet. It has been re-firing convection all morning and has closed off the center again. If shear doesn't impact (her) she could be Helene later today. Not at all sure where she's going, but has the POTENTIAL to intensify into a Hurricane before landfall. WHere is highly dependent on the High pressure to the NE in the bahamas and how fast that moves out, as well as the front coming in from the Lower Great lakes. This front is stronger than initially thought, and will bring the first low elevation snows to Montana. Check back later. CHeers!!
TD #12 Regrouping (#45)
Posted by: Gary Location: Los Angeles, CA
Posted On 01:04PM 20-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRUUNUVNQSQ*)

From the latest visual image TD #12 is getting it's act together again. My bet is that it will become Tropical Storm Helena later this afternoon.
I agreed with Steve and Gary (#46)
Posted by: Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 01:12PM 20-Sep-2000 with id (QRNQSNRTXNQT*)

Over the past two to three hours the TD has shown a slow but steady growth of convection near and around the center.... and still looks to be moving off to the NW. If this trend continues I think its got a chance of becoming a TS either this afternoon or tonight....
'71 (#47)
Posted by: Frank Location: Tally
Posted On 01:21PM 20-Sep-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNRS*)

yah, jj, youre right. inland doesnt count. my bad. i wanted a storm to visit (not crazy, this thing doesnt have the time to get its act together), but our td 12 is accelerating into its right turn rather than slowing like they usually do.. until it puts the brakes on it'll have a tough time getting a stacked circulation (what they all seem to be missing this year). interesting how the convection broke apart last night when they made it a depression, after holding down pretty solid convection for days as a wave. thats how it goes, convection and llcs just dont go hand in hand this year. it's come back just a bit however..
anyhow, take it easy folks.
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