CFHC Talkback For News Story #104:
Newest Talkback: 05:21 PM 09-20 EDT

TD#12 Reforms South of Cuba
08:04 PM EDT - 19 September 2000

And I just got back from a trip that took me longer than expected (not by choice).

We'll be tracking it, and more information will come soon...]

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for TD#12. From Michael Bryson.

Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports
Satellite images at: [Visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [Infrared] (infrared), and [Water Vapor] (water vapor)
Loops: Visible Loop - Infrared Loop - Water Vapor Loop
A nice animated Water Vapor Image
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)
StormCarib.com has reports from folks in the Caribbean islands themselves and is worth checking out when storms approach the Caribbean.
Ouragans.com Français -- L'information sur des ouragans comprenant beaucoup de liens.
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

Show All Comments | Show Next 21 Comments | Show Previous 23 Comments
Displaying Talkbacks #6 - #26 (of 47 total)
Double up? (#6)
Posted by: mike Location: Clearwater Beach
Posted On 09:08PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVQNRTPNQTY*)

Looks alot like Gordon. How weird would that be for this system to affect West Florida. Have 2 systems ever affected the same area and in such a short span of time before?
Camille (#7)
Posted by: Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 09:13PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNQVS*)

A few facts on Camille since I was in the middle of it back in 69. My house on the beach in Biloxi is 20 feet above sea level, the storm surge at my house was 22 feet. The storm actually was supposed to go to Florida, we were told it would take a turn to the Northeast all day Sunday the night it hit... WRONG... Depending on who you talk to the winds were sustained at 175 mph+ with gusts to 200+.... This thing will not be no Camille.... period... Although its possible for it to take a similar track... botton line, Camille was noooo lady...have a nice night yall
"From-the-hip" prediction (#8)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 09:15PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (QRYNQQUNUSNQPY*)

Now that we have TD 12 again, with a forecast probability of becoming a named storm, I'm going to go out on a limb for once and say that the Gulf disturbance probably won't develop, for the following reasons:

1.) It seems to be moving north, into a region of higher westerly shear.

2.) I don't *think* there have ever been two TCs or named storms in the Gulf of Mexico at once. That being said, if one develops and makes it into the Gulf (12), the other system *probably* won't develop. I'll have to give a cursory check of this stat sometime, though.

I would have added "weaker convection" to the cons, but I couldn't rule out that the low just might be going through the regular alternating pattern of tropical convection.
Intrigueing Times no matter What Develops (#9)
Posted by: Mary Location: Lakeland
Posted On 09:21PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (QRNWWNQVSNQPX*)

These are intrigueing times in the tropics no matter what develops. The scientists are having a field day with new information. My only concern is how much rain to expect this weekend. Last weekend was a nice wash out. I think I would like to see another one. I have another good book to read.
GDFL (#10)
Posted by: John C (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Cocoa, FL ( Currently in San Antonio, Texas)
Posted On 09:23PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RQVNVRNWXNSU*)

THe GDFL model has TD#12 a cat 2 hitting the same area as Gordon. Could it be? With the way this season has been going, it will not suprise me if there are TWO tropical systems in the Gulf at the same time. I guess we will find out.
sorry richie (#11)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER)
Posted On 09:24PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (VSNSYNSVNWT*)

sorry richie,,,the weather you are experiencing there is not associated with td12,, maybe by later tomorrow night ,,,maybe.
GDFL? GFDL (#12)
Posted by: John C (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Cocoa, FL ( Currently in San Antonio, Texas)
Posted On 09:27PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RQVNVRNWXNSU*)

Sorry Guess I am tired or somthing!
SAME AREA? (#13)
Posted by: mike Location: Clearwater Beach
Posted On 09:41PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVQNRTPNQTY*)

I read the same thing John. Looks to be alot like Gordon. Have 2 storm ever hit in the same are this closely or if this happens would it be a first?
38knt. flight level (#14)
Posted by: Jim F. (http://flhurricane.com/jfaul/) Location: Ft. Lauderdale
Posted On 09:53PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPXNVQNQQVNQXY*)

This sytem is getting its act together..http://www.intellicast.com/LocalWeather/World/UnitedStates/Southeast/Florida/Miami/RadarLoop/

I can tell you we have an 80 degree dewpoint in Fort Lauderdale, that is really high even for SoFla and it feels oppressive, tons of lightning in the south and west coming our way.
Back To Back (#15)
Posted by: clyde w. Location: orlando
Posted On 09:55PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (VSNWSNRQSNU*)

In reference to an earlier question about storms hitting the same location-

1954- Hurricane Carol and Hurricane Edna hit NC within 12 days of each other. A 3rd and much more powerful storm hit the same general area later that year.

1955- Hurricane Connie and Hurricane Diane hit NC only 5 days apart!!

Must have been a very rough couple of years for the Outer Bankers! The link below can provide more details for those who are interested.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/index.html
SORRY SCOTT (#16)
Posted by: Richie Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Posted On 10:20PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNVY*)

SCOTTS VB ... YOU NEED TO LOOK AT THE SATTELITE PICTURES AND SEE THAT S. FLORIDA'S WEATHER TONIGHT IS BEING AFFECTED BY THE OUTER FRINGES OF TD 12. IF YOU CAN'T SEE THAT I DON'T KNOW WHAT TO TELL YOU.
Camile (#17)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 10:26PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (QYYNRRWNQWSNRQR*)

Officaly Camile was said by recon about an hour before landfall they repoted ""190mph"" sustained
and a pressure around 900 millibars. I can not imagine going through something like that the wind must have been the most awfull thing to hear.
Camile (#18)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 10:26PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (QYYNRRWNQWSNRQR*)

Officaly Camile was said by recon about an hour before landfall they repoted ""190mph"" sustained
and a pressure around 900 millibars. I can not imagine going through something like that the wind must have been the most awfull thing to hear.
SCOTT PART 2 (#19)
Posted by: Richie Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Posted On 10:34PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNVT*)

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
930 PM EDT TUE SEP 19 2000


FARTHER S...SHOWERS ASSOCD WITH OUTER BANDS FROM TD 12 CONTINUE TO
IMPINGE ON THE SW CORNER OF THE CWFA.

TD #12 (#20)
Posted by: Scott J. Cummings Location: Tampa
Posted On 10:45PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRXNTPNS*)

Mother nature is awesome.....I live in Tampa Florida, and in a strange way I am hoping for a Hurricane to hit Tampa...I know you think this guy is nuts...but I think I feed on this power....it is awesome, and I own a home, so I do not know what is wroung with me!
Careful what you wish for... (#21)
Posted by: Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 10:58PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNQUV*)

Well Scott you better be careful what you wish for... Oh they certainly generate a tremendous amount of excitement and all... but when these storms get to a Cat 3 or above, and now you are facing a tremendous potential for personal injury and properly damage...and you just might loose everything you own.. you might just change your mind, I know because I'm speaking from experience....

Ask anyone who has been through the eye wall of a Cat 3 or above if they'd like to do it again... I don't think so.. I love tracking the storms... but I love em more when they go somewhere else.... and funny, I do know what you are feeling because a long time ago I had such feelings... not any more...
Scott (#22)
Posted by: Bruce Location: Palm Bay Florida
Posted On 11:00PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNSY*)

I feel the same way, I quess we are both nuts!
Aw Nuts.... (#23)
Posted by: Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 11:10PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNQUV*)

Hey, I'm definitely crazy... I still ride out all the storms in my beach front house... they are truly spectular events of nature...... but I don't let my family stay.. they gotta go... just me and my two hurricane basset hounds...

c ya
Crazy (#24)
Posted by: Rita (http://www.hurricanewatchers.com) Location: Coastal GA
Posted On 11:54PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (VTNQRNQPUNQWT*)

We all are crazy for living near the coast. But what a beautiful place it can be.
1971 (#25)
Posted by: Frank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 12:17AM 20-Sep-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)

hey jj, forgive the trivia, but i can think of one instance when there were two in the gulf.. edith and fern in sep '71. needless to say it doesnt happen very often, as close and personal tropical cyclones are a cannibalistic breed. the one on the left right now isnt looking too hot anyway (td 12 w/o its convection still looks halfway decent), so chances of getting a pair arent all that great. gotta go with ya there, the west gulf system is a flash in the pan. the current forecast track on this td 12, amusing. gordon was pretty pathetic here, but theyre sending us another one to make up for the weak performance. the models are less divergent than with gordon, and would-be helene (huh-leen or huh-lena? anybody know the enunciation?) is supposed to be here friday, but i dont have any classes then, so bah. gotta come on a monday or wednesday to really make me happy. these fsu hurricane parties can get pretty wild i hear. ah well, im not advising any keg purchases just yet. this thing gets a name tomorrow and i'll be a bit more prospective...
by the way, the latest african wave has a nice signature. its predecessor is already on the way out, but this one has a bit more ridge to scamper under before meeting the shear monster.. maybe.
well, anyhow, you folks have a good one.
Just a gut feeling....... (#26)
Posted by: Teresa Location: Mobile, AL
Posted On 12:47AM 20-Sep-2000 with id (RTNTNRUSNXY*)

but the projected path as of now is west of Cedar Keys, closer to Appalachicola, but my gut feeling is the path and landfall is going to be alittle further west. This TD has a track similar to Hurricane Federick in 1979. Frederick reached Cat. 4 but weakened before landfall.
Weakend (#27)
Posted by: Darcy Location: Ontario, Canada
Posted On 06:44AM 20-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNTXNQRSNTV*)

its dieing!
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