CFHC Talkback For News Story #105:
Newest Talkback: 02:17 AM 09-13 EDT

More Info on Floyd
09:00 PM EDT - 12 September 1999

Update 11PMLast update for tonght. No change in thinking. No watches yet, but they are expected tomorrow morning (5AM). Tomorrow will be the big decision day. Frankly, it doesn't look all that great. Some models give hope for a turn, but right now the storm is STILL moving West at 14MPH. Good night and pray for better news tomorrow.

Pressure down to 931mb

Reposted from RobertS723@aol.com with apologies in advance. Normally I don't repost but this situation will be the exception.

HURRICANE FLOYD SIGNIFICANTLY STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND IS NOW A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE CAPABLE OF CAUSING EXTENSIVE DAMAGE.

THE SYNOPTIC REASONING BEHIND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME AS 48 HRS AGO.....WITH AN APPROACHING TROF WHICH IS FORECAST TO PINCH OFF THE EASTERN RIDGE RESULTING IN A WEAKNESS TO FORM NORTH OF FLOYD AND TURN THE HURRICANE TOWARDS THE NORTH. HOWEVER....IT IS UNCERTAIN AS TO WHERE AND WHEN THIS NORTHWARD TURN WILL OCCUR.

THE OFFICIAL TPC FORECAST TAKES FLOYD TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WITHIN 72 HRS. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FACT.....THE FLORIDA STATE EOC IS AT LEVEL 2 ACTIVATION STATUS IN PREPARATION FOR A POTENTIAL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE LANDFALL. AS OF 5:00 PM EDT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES ARE ACTIVATED AND REPORT THE FOLLOWING:

NASSAU, DUVAL COUNTIES: EOC MONITORING PROGRESS OF FLOYD....WILL MAKE PREPARATION DECISIONS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

ST JOHNS, FLAGLER COUNTIES: SPECIAL NEEDS EVACUATIONS ANTICIPATED MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VOLUSA COUNTY: EOC ACTIVE....SPECIAL NEEDS EVAC MAY BE REQUIRED MONDAY. FULL EVACUATION PROJECTED FOR TUESDAY.

BREVARD COUNTY: EOC ACTIVE....WILL ENTER LEVEL 2 ACTIVATION 8:00 AM MONDAY. CONFERENCE CALL SCHEDULED FOR 8:00 AM MONDAY. SPECIAL NEEDS EVAC MAY BE REQUIRED MONDAY AFTERNOON.

INDIAN RIVER COUNTY: EOC ACTIVE....ALL PREPARATION DECISIONS WILL BE MADE BY 8:00 AM MONDAY.

ST. LUCIE COUNTY: EOC ACTIVE....CONFERENCE CALL SCHEDULED FOR 8:00 AM MONDAY. SPECIAL NEEDS EVAC ANTICIPATED MONDAY AFTERNOON.

MARTIN COUNTY: EOC ACTIVE....CONFERENCE CALL SCHEDULED 8:00 AM MONDAY. DEPENDING UPON WATCHES/WARNINGS....SPECIAL NEEDS EVAC MAY BEGIN MONDAY AFTERNOON....WITH VOLUNTEER EVAC REQUIRED TUESDAY MORNING.

PALM BEACH COUNTY: EOC ACTIVE.....ALL PROTECTIVE ACTION DECISIONS WILL BE MADE BY 8:00 AM MONDAY.

BROWARD COUNTY: EOC ACTIVE....ALL DECISIONS WILL BE MADE BY 8:00 AM MONDAY. WILL GO TO LEVEL 2 STATUS NOON MONDAY.

DADE COUNTY: EOC ACTIVE....CONFERENCE CALL SCHEDULED FOR 7:00 AM MONDAY. SPECIAL NEEDS AND VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY.

MONROE COUNTY: EOC ACTIVE....CONFERENCE CALL SCHEDULED FOR 8:00 AM MONDAY....WILL MAKE PREPARATION DECISIONS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

**** ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE EAST COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OFHURRICANE FLOYD. FOLLOW ALL RECOMMENDATIONS FROM LOCAL AUTHORITIES. BELOW ARE SOME TIPS ON HOW TO PREPARE FOR A HURRICANE:

Preparation for a Power Outage - - Check the working condition of flashlights, batteries and battery-powered radios. Should power go out in your area, a working battery-powered radio may be your only way to get outside information. Also, in the event of a power failure, flashlights may be your only source of light.

NOAA Weather Radio - - Make sure the radio you buy is both electric and battery powered in case you lose electricity.

Adequate Supply of Food and Water - - Make sure you have enough non-perishable food and water on hand for one to two weeks. In the event of a catastrophic storm, you could be without power for at least that long. It is recommended that you have one gallon of water per person, per day.

Supplies to Protect Your Home - - Buy and store materials, such as plywood and plastic, to secure your home in the event of a storm.

Inspection of Your Home’s Exterior - - Check the area around your home for potential problems. Make sure rain gutters and spouts are secure and not clogged. Inspect the roof for loose tiles, shingles, or debris. Keep trees and shrubbery well trimmed and remove any dead or dying branches. Make sure any loose items, such as garbage cans, lawn furniture, or plants, are taken inside or tied down.

Making Plans for Your Boat - - If you own a boat, make sure you know where you will move it in the event of an approaching storm.

Securing Important Documents - - Gather insurance policies and other important documents and store in a safe, dry place. It is also recommended that you inventory your property, on video tape if possible, and store it with these documents. You may also want to send copies to a relative out of the area.

Having Quick Access to Emergency Numbers - - Post emergency telephone numbers near your phone. Remember, do not call 911 unless you have a real emergency. Also, teach children how to make long-distance phone calls and how and when to call 911.

Preparation for Possible Evacuation - - Anyone who lives in a coastal storm surge area, in low-lying flood-prone areas or in a mobile home should be prepared to evacuate if instructed to do so by local officials. If you are in an area that is likely to be evacuated, contact friends or family members who live inland and make plans to stay with them. Know the evacuation routes, plan to leave with plenty of time to get to a safe place, and review these plans with your family. You should also know where public shelters are located in your area. Public shelters do not allow pets, so make alternate arrangements if necessary. In addition, anyone who is at risk for medical reasons could be forced to evacuate. At-risk people should register now with their county emergency management office.

Weather enthusiasts who have access to a shortwave radio may want to tune to 14.325 Mhz USB. (upper sideband)

This is the network frequency for the Hurricane Watch Network, a Nationwide Network of Volunteer Amateur radio Operators who provide information to the National Hurricane Center in Florida.

This emergency information network is now active for Hurricane Floyd.

Homepage http://www.hwn.org

For East Central Florida residents and guests looking for more information such as Evacuation Routes and Planning tips see the following pages: [Brevard] [Volusia] [Flagler] [Indian River] [Inland] [News Media]
These have links to the county sites which gives evacuation information and shelter locations.

Also our links page has links to other areas in Florida -- look for the Emergency Management County pages.

For more information on Hurricane Floyd see the Current Storm Spotlight for Hurricane Floyd.
For more information on Gert see the Current Storm Spotlight for Gert.
NRL Monterey Tracking Site (Navy) -- Very nice forecast track graphics for Floyd.
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
GFDL Model & Plot for Floyd and for Gert
Multiple Model Forecast Composite from Michael Bryson

Weather Channel Caribbean Sat Image
Intellicast Caribbean IR Loop
Intellicast Atlantic IR Loop

More Sat images: Floyd Centered imagery.

[N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.


- [jc]

Show All Comments
Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #20 (of 20 total)
Very well said (#1)
Posted by: Joe Location: brevard, Fl
Posted On 09:20PM 12-Sep-1999 with id (RPXNQTNSXNUU*)

Except the evacuation of coastal areas. I belive if a cat 4 or 5 is going to directly hit brevard or any county, everyone in the county should evacuate not just the coast line. Did you see what Andrew did miles inland
FLOYD MODELS (#2)
Posted by: JAMES Location: MOBILE
Posted On 09:27PM 12-Sep-1999 with id (RPYNQRNRSXNRRR*)

I JUST RECIEVED THE OOUTC RUNS FROM THE NHC
MODELS. TWO OF THEM ARE STILL TAKING THIS MASSIVE
STORM INLAND IN CENTRAL FLORIDA. IN FACT, ONE HAS IT ALMOST EXITING THE WEST COAST IN 72 HOURS. ALSO THE LBAR NOW TAKES IT DUE NORTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS. PEOPLE IN FLORIDA PLEASE TAKE THE STEPS THAT NEED TO BE TAKEN.

FLOYD (#3)
Posted by: Mike Anderson
Posted On 10:17PM 12-Sep-1999 with id (QURNQVSNQXYNQYU*)

Good evening folks i have some information on this systen and it loks very bad, FLOYD is responding to the ridge north of the system, as for the trough i now think it will not be the player most think, what im seeing is a system that has control of its own motion, as for the track well im thinking that the system could come in along the coast of HOBE SOUND, i than see the system slowley heading and i mean slowley up the coast, the system will be very close to Stuart, at that time im expecting a major hurricane at CAT 5 or a very high 4,I will extend myself and break the code , we should see a hurricane watch posted by late tonight or very early tomorrow, This is the time to get id done, please dont wait till late monday night, i will be on line all night, my web site will be going and you can now post a comment on it as well, as for the live storm chat that will be going as well so join me in the room later tonight if you like , im happy to chat about the system, Mike Anderson Florida WX.
FLOYD (#4)
Posted by: Mike Anderson
Posted On 10:20PM 12-Sep-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRPQNQWW*)

Good evening folks i have some information on this systen and it loks very bad, FLOYD is responding to the ridge north of the system, as for the trough i now think it will not be the player most think, what im seeing is a system that has control of its own motion, as for the track well im thinking that the system could come in along the coast of HOBE SOUND, i than see the system slowley heading and i mean slowley up the coast, the system will be very close to Stuart, at that time im expecting a major hurricane at CAT 5 or a very high 4,I will extend myself and break the code , we should see a hurricane watch posted by late tonight or very early tomorrow, This is the time to get id done, please dont wait till late monday night, i will be on line all night, my web site will be going and you can now post a comment on it as well, as for the live storm chat that will be going as well so join me in the room later tonight if you like , im happy to chat about the system, Mike Anderson Florida WX.
Hurricane Floyd (#5)
Posted by: CHLOE
Posted On 11:11PM 12-Sep-1999 with id (RPYNQUVNRQSNSQ*)

Hey everyone! Very nervous about this hurricane, since I live a block in from the atlantic ocean on the coast of florida, in a brand new house. Today the seas were up to about eight foot, with the surge or height up dramatically from just two days ago. I've seen our pier taken out, sections of it, from waves of twenty feet or more from past hurricanes, or should i say winds from the outer bands. Can't imagine what a cat 4 or 5 would do to my tiny town. We'll see, but i will be leaving the area if need be. wish me luck.
mikes site url (#6)
Posted by: troy
Posted On 11:27PM 12-Sep-1999 with id (RPUNQURNVRNXV*)

Mike can you please post or send your sites url to me? Thanks! :)

floyd (#7)
Posted by: greg
Posted On 11:38PM 12-Sep-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRPQNRPW*)

mike...please post your site url..thanks
FORCAST strength (#8)
Posted by: ROB Location: STUART FLORIDA
Posted On 11:40PM 12-Sep-1999 with id (QYYNRRWNRPNRPW*)

i just loooked at the forcast strength for the next 48 hours and floyd is suposed to attain
{ CAT 5 } strength in 24 hours
WEB SITE ADDRESS (#9)
Posted by: Mike Anderson
Posted On 11:42PM 12-Sep-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRPQNQWV*)

Sorry for not having the address posted but here it is http://www.fortunecity.com/greenfield/tigris/622/weather/ectwp.htm
floyd (#10)
Posted by: scottsvb
Posted On 11:46PM 12-Sep-1999 with id (VSNRSNQXXNRSS*)

Hello all that read my forcasting over time,,,as
you all know and have looked back on my forcasts,
Ive been right on with Floyd since depression
stage in strength and direction,,,,now is the hard
part....

A hurrican Watch should go into affect for the
east coast of Florida from guessly Hollywood
north to Daytona maybe up more,,,,, warnings
will go into affect for the northern Bahamas
during the day here on Monday.

Floyd is a Cat 4 of 145 at this time and should
remain around here for the forcast period. He
has the chanse to get up to 155,but it won't
matter really....

His direction has been just N of west. and a
small series of wobbles should continue during the day today with a more west-northwest motion
late mon into Tues,,,,,

Now lets look at what should happen....currently
a the upper ridge is centerd at 71w north of
him,,,,,so after he passes that he should turn
slightly like indicated above,,,,,,,I see direct
impact on the central Bahamas on late tonight and
moving thru on Tues,,,,,,my indications are him
moving thru Eluthrua island late tonight and
betwwen Nassua and Freeport on Tuesday morning.
He should be heading west-northwest to almost northwest,,,,,,by 11pm tuesday he should be
just 50 miles east of West Palm heading northwest.
He should then hug the coast...... Now note
if he stays west long enough he could move just into land, but note also that past West Palm the
land mass turns North-northwest....thats why he will hug it. The trough coming down is the major
playewr in all this and note Floyd can still
move more west if he stays this strong,,,,or
if he does a double wobble to the west on tuesday before his turn North of North-northwest,,,,,
people on the west coast of florida need to watch this tack today and tuesday especially form Naples
north,,,,,,I will update this all later today.
scottsvb

LIVE STORM CHAT (#11)
Posted by: Mike Anderson
Posted On 12:01AM 13-Sep-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRPQNRPW*)

A short post ill be in the live storm chat at 1:00 if any of you want to chat and burn the oil than you are welcome to come on in and fire away, Mike
WINDS (#12)
Posted by: ROBERT
Posted On 12:16AM 13-Sep-1999 with id (QYYNRRWNRPNRPW*)

this to mike and scott mainly but anyone else is free to comment is well.

How Strong do you think the winds could get in Stuart Area

Please awnser back
RE scottsvb (#13)
Posted by: Mike Anderson
Posted On 12:19AM 13-Sep-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRPQNRPW*)

Scott you are almost right on, but you as so many others are talking about this trough, Lets chat trough first, it is moving liks a snail tonight , and many models tend to over due every trough that comes down from the north, but most important we have to talk about FLOYD, as strong as the boy is and will get he is starting to create an environment of his own here tonight, Lets take GILBERT, he entered the gulf and was forecasted to move to the north toward Brownsville texas in responce to a deep trough, guess what , he did not and Tampico wore the catchers mit on that one, just thought id add a bit to what you are saying tonight , keep up the good work, Mike Anderson florida wx.
RE Robert / Winds (#14)
Posted by: Mike Anderson
Posted On 12:36AM 13-Sep-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRPQNQXQ*)

Robert if you are in Stuart than you need to be ready for Hurricane force winds, they should arrive in your area on tue night, you should have tropical storm force before that, as far a damage goes , well you could have a bit of that as well , Good luck my friend Mike.
Stuart,fl floyd (#15)
Posted by: scottsvb
Posted On 01:49AM 13-Sep-1999 with id (VSNQSNSVNQQ*)

Stuart Fl should get hurricane force winds unless
it takes a dramatic turn to the north,,which I
don't see that happening until late tuesday or
wednsday afternoon,,,,, scottsvb
floyd (#16)
Posted by: scottsvb
Posted On 02:11AM 13-Sep-1999 with id (VSNQSNSVNQQ*)



Note as of 2am Floyd pessure droped again
now at 923mbars,,,,,,,,,winds should be uped
to 150mph,,,,but still waiting on the hurricane
hunters final statement.......scottsvb
FLOYD GETTING BIGGER (#17)
Posted by: Mike Anderson
Posted On 02:27AM 13-Sep-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYVNRV*)

FLOYD has sustained wind of 150 now and is still heading west, the system is getting deeper now at 923 milibars, this is going to add to it's ridge to the north and im really thinking FLOYD just might push the trough west on it;s southern end, some signs are sugesting that now on the WV loop, if you do not have your plans ready then get them done ,Mike Anderson Florida WX.
Conditions For this area and how soon??? (#18)
Posted by: Patrick Location: New Smyrna Beach
Posted On 04:47AM 13-Sep-1999 with id (RQVNWVNRQVNU*)

Can someone tell me what we should expect here and when condtions might start changing. I live one block from the Atlantic Ocean Any info PLEASE
Orlando conditions? (#19)
Posted by: Howard Scherzer Location: NY NY
Posted On 05:12AM 13-Sep-1999 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNRPS*)

What will the conditions be inland at orlando for the next several days. I have a business trade show occuring there and I am wondering if I should bother to attend. I picture Tuesday/Wed to be complete washouts- no attendees.
Pls give me a sense of Floyds effect this far inland if it actually stays off the coast and heads north
THanks in advance
rgds
Howard
Ok Experts We are not getting good media coverage here! (#20)
Posted by: Mary Location: Lakeland
Posted On 05:17AM 13-Sep-1999 with id (QRNWWNQVRNTU*)

We still have local forecasters telling people not to worry about evacuations yet knowing that mobile homes are not safe in 55 mph winds. We will need you guys more than ever. Especially inland where it is assumed by ignorant people that we are "safe". Please can anyone one make sense of the 5:00 am report? That watch how far inland does it extend? This is important to people whose jobs will not allow sudden departures to go buy hurricane supplies before they are all gone.
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