CFHC Talkback For News Story #105:
Newest Talkback: 03:58 AM 09-21 EDT

TD#12 Nearly Gone
01:21 PM EDT - 20 September 2000

Still barely holding on (and arguably at that), Tropical Depression #12 is moving into the Southeast Gulf of Mexico. This time the Northern Gulf coast looks like the likely place. If it strengthens, I don't expect much more than a tropical storm. If not, it'll break apart and still cause a good deal of rain.

Outside of TD#12, nothing imminent is out there.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for TD#12. From Michael Bryson.

Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports
Satellite images at: [Visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [Infrared] (infrared), and [Water Vapor] (water vapor)
Loops: Visible Loop - Infrared Loop - Water Vapor Loop
A nice animated Water Vapor Image
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)
StormCarib.com has reports from folks in the Caribbean islands themselves and is worth checking out when storms approach the Caribbean.
Ouragans.com Français -- L'information sur des ouragans comprenant beaucoup de liens.
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.

Satellite images at: [NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #4 (of 25 total)
nearly gone (#1)
Posted by: Doug Spangler Location: sarasota
Posted On 01:32PM 20-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQTTNQNTR*)

yes it is nearly gone, but the moisture is returning around whatever center is there.
The HP ridge seemed to sink rapidly to the south and the easterlies nearly finished it off. But today that will not be the problem, as it is now in the return flow around the high, and UL winds should taper off..it will probably regain some semblance today of a cyclone..
Future movement, as of now will follow the flow around the high...a big arch out into the Central Gulf and a swing back to the ene across the northern peninsula of Florida. The high is apparently fairly vigorous and that plus a trough digging down across Kansas toward Oklahoma to Arkansas could steer the system more sharply back to the ene rather than a leisurly drift into the northern Gulf Coast...all subject to change however...and besides if it does not really bounce back today, it won't make much of a difference...EDS.
avn model run (#2)
Posted by: Doug Spangler Location: sarasota
Posted On 01:48PM 20-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQTTNQNTR*)

The AVN model and the GFDL both show minimal development and deployment of the system into the central panhandle of Fla... The AVN also shows a vigouous cyclone midway between the Cape Verde and the Antilles at the 72 hour mark...latest satellite shows large cyclonic cloud mass exiting Africa...
It might be dead but.... (#3)
Posted by: Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 03:07PM 20-Sep-2000 with id (QRNQSNRTXNT*)

somebody forgot to tell old TD12 that it was dead.... Looking at the latest IR sat loop, it continues to slowly but steadily build convection near and south of the center...


IT IS NOT NEARLY DEAD (#4)
Posted by: L.T. Location: Pensacola, FL
Posted On 03:34PM 20-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNUV*)

CHECK OUT THE LATEST SATELLITE PICS!!!!! IT WILL BE A TS BY TOMORROW.
TD and NEW circulation (#5)
Posted by: Steve h.
Posted On 04:03PM 20-Sep-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

Agree Frank and L.T. Looks like deep convection firing up. No reason, at least for the next 36 hours, why this shouldn't crank up a bit....but who knows. Direction is not clear cut either. Should development occur and it's northward motion slow, as it appears to have in the last few frames, than it could threaten the FLorida west coast as a front approaches and stalls at the FL/GA border. Everyone from Mobile to Ft. Myers should check on it. Anyone see the circulaiton developing at about 38W/15N? Looks like it could be trouble for the islands if what i'm seeing is correct...must be leftovers stirring up from the old wave. Cheer!!
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