CFHC Talkback For News Story #107:
Newest Talkback: 11:11 AM 09-22 EDT

Tropical Storm Helene Forms In Gulf
09:14 AM EDT - 21 September 2000

A special update from the National Hurricane Center indicates that Tropical Storm Helene has formed in the Gulf. They will be issuing Tropical Storm watches and Warnings at 11AM EDT (10AM CDT) as well as new coordinates at that time. Helene has slowed forward motion just a bit this morning, but should still arrive on the coast as a Tropical Storm..

We'll keep watching...

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

Joseph Johnston's Mobile Alabama Webcam (Hosted on CFHC)

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for TD#12. From Michael Bryson.
Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports
Satellite images at: [Visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [Infrared] (infrared), and [Water Vapor] (water vapor)
Loops: Visible Loop - Infrared Loop - Water Vapor Loop
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
[NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #15 (of 15 total)
Helene could be a Hurricane if she stalls (#1)
Posted by: Rick Shade Location: Mobile, Al
Posted On 09:28AM 21-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNQRNVYNRSV*)

About the worst scenario would be if she slows down enough to build up to a hurricane. I anticipate that that will happen. Wouldn't it be something if she stalled...built up...and then fired into the coast as a cat 3 or better. This kind of thing can catch people unawares. I keep thinking back to other storms...that stalled. The Gulf is a perfect environment for warm water. Anyone have any predictions based on good meteorology? If there is such a thing....
Opal 1995 (#2)
Posted by: Bruce Location: Palm Bay Florida
Posted On 09:35AM 21-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNQWR*)

Opal in 1995, went from TS to Cat3 In less than 36 hours in the Gulf. I just expect a strong TS out of this one, but you never know, strange season.
TS Helene (#3)
Posted by: Bruce Location: Palm Bay Florida
Posted On 09:46AM 21-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNQWR*)

Check out this site, it is a good interactive site.http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/
T.S. Helene (#4)
Posted by: Tony P. Location: Panama City
Posted On 09:50AM 21-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRQTNTVNQVR*)

I recently found this site and think it's great!!! I agree with Bruce and Rick, this storm has to be carefully watched just in case there is rapid development. I was here for Opal and it went from Cat 1 to Cat 4 (150 mph) in less than 12 hours!!! I do not know the chances of that happening again, but will be watching for updates with great interest. Once again, thanks for a great site. Here's a couple of sites someone might be interested in that also have good graphics: www.hurricanealley.net/natl.htm and www.floridadisater.org
TD# 13 is born (#5)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 10:11AM 21-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNTNTSNQUR*)




NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN (AL1300) ON 20000921 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...

000921 1200 000922 0000 000922 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 11.5N 23.0W 11.9N 25.8W 11.9N 28.2W

BAMM 11.5N 23.0W 11.9N 26.0W 11.8N 28.3W

A90E 11.5N 23.0W 12.3N 25.9W 12.4N 29.1W

LBAR 11.5N 23.0W 12.4N 25.7W 13.1N 28.5W

SHIP 30KTS 40KTS 50KTS



...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...

000923 0000 000923 1200 000924 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 11.7N 30.1W 11.2N 32.0W 10.0N 36.0W

BAMM 11.4N 30.1W 11.0N 31.7W 10.0N 35.2W

A90E 12.2N 32.1W 11.9N 34.6W 12.5N 38.6W

LBAR 13.9N 31.4W 14.5N 34.0W 14.8N 38.3W

SHIP 60KTS 69KTS 80KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LAT0 = 11.5N LON0 = 23.0W DIR0 = 290DEG SPD0 = 15KT

LATM12 = 10.2N LONM12 = 19.5W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 = 15KT

LATM24 = 9.4N LONM24 = 15.5W

WND0 = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = -9NM RD34SE = -9NM RD34SW = -9NM RD34NW =
Yikes!! (#6)
Posted by: L.T. (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/SAB/TROP/DATA/img/GMEXIR4.html) Location: Pensacola, FL
Posted On 10:12AM 21-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNTV*)

I woke up to a TS coming my way and Warnings up soon!! I'll stay posted on this GREAT site!!!
projected path for Helene (#7)
Posted by: Doug Spangler Location: sarasota
Posted On 10:18AM 21-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQTTNQNTQ*)

Just based on current sattelite imagery it appears the storm will make land fall to the East of Appilachicola, but West of Cedar Key, near Steinhatchee is my guess. EDS.
projected path for Helene (#8)
Posted by: Doug Spangler Location: sarasota
Posted On 10:18AM 21-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQTTNQNTQ*)

Just based on current sattelite imagery it appears the storm will make land fall to the East of Appilachicola, but West of Cedar Key, near Steinhatchee is my guess. EDS.
ts and landfall (#9)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER)
Posted On 10:21AM 21-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRSNQXTNSP*)

Well as i predicted TS has formed and pressure
has droped,the system slowed,,,and a n motion is
indicated with a turn to the NE later this afternoon and evening. winds are 45mph,but maybe
50mph in area.
I expect slightly more intensification as she
makes landfall tonight,,,as a moderate to strong
TS. Lanfall should be from Mobile to Tampa even.
Almost another cedar key landfall except it cutting that way from a different direction,,,
Gorden came in NNE to NE..while Heyelne should
come in NE to ENE. scottsvb slight chance for hurricane warnings at 5pm for this area,,20%
Projected Path (#10)
Posted by: Tony P. (http://€©@ˆë) Location: Panama City
Posted On 10:29AM 21-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRQTNTVNQVR*)

If you want to see the latest (3 hrs ago)computer "projected paths" with CLIPER,BAMB,BAMM,A90E, and LBAR graphis, go to www.hurricanealley.net/natl.htm, scroll down and click on "Tropical Model Graphics" You can see most of latest guess will be between Ft Walton and Panama City. Hope you enjoy it!! Also www.dca.state.fl.us/eoc is another good site which should have some good updated graphics soon.
good chance,,postition update (#11)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER)
Posted On 10:31AM 21-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRSNQXTNSP*)

looks like recon found the system moving N now at 26.2N and 87W moving n near 13.
Projected Path (#12)
Posted by: Tony P. (http://€©@ˆë) Location: Panama City
Posted On 10:31AM 21-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRQTNTVNQVR*)

If you want to see the latest (3 hrs ago)computer "projected paths" with CLIPER,BAMB,BAMM,A90E, and LBAR graphis, go to www.hurricanealley.net/natl.htm, scroll down and click on "Tropical Model Graphics" You can see most of latest guess will be between Ft Walton and Panama City. Hope you enjoy it!! Also www.dca.state.fl.us/eoc is another good site which should have some good updated graphics soon.
central carribean? (#13)
Posted by: Doug Spangler Location: sarasota
Posted On 10:32AM 21-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQTTNQNTQ*)

what is the nature of the cyclonic feature now looking more prominent in the central carribean?
central carribean (#14)
Posted by: Doug Spangler Location: sarasota
Posted On 10:39AM 21-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQTTNQNTQ*)

answering my own question, apparently it is a tropical wave interacting with an upper level low, but looking more tropical all the time IMO
Florida Storms are we ready? (#15)
Posted by: Nick Location: Central Florida
Posted On 07:11AM 22-Sep-2000 with id (QYXNQYPNQUQNQXP*)

Enjoy the site along with everyone else. Sometimes amused by those that want to make monster storms out of weak tropical systems. Are we that hungry for the action? I am thankful for the shearing winds that have kept the storms weak this season thus far. I am also fearful that if a major storm stikes a populated Florida coast, we are in for more than we bargined for. Houses are built on what used to be wetlands and evacuation routes will be water covered as well. After years and years of less than normal rainfall, what appears to be dry land just might not be. Welcome to the swamp!!
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