CFHC Talkback For News Story #111:
Newest Talkback: 05:26 PM 09-23 EDT

Helene Landfalls. Future of Isaac
06:49 AM EDT - 23 September 2000

Tropical Storm Helene made landfall yesterday, and weakened as it approached. Most of the strong storms were to the east of where it made landfall (Pensacola area). It has since dissipated into a mass of rain heading up the southeast. Very similar to what occured with Gordon.

Tropical Storm Isaac is still tracking west, although still not in Shear now, the future holds problems for Issac, as it must go through an area of possible developing shear. This will probably keep it relatively weak for the time being. Most models suggest that it will stay north of the islands. Do to climatology and other factors, I don't expect Issac to do much. The most likely path for this is for it to become a fish spinner, and never threaten land. We'll still watch it, though -- this season is full of abnormalities. But climatology is on my side.

Outside of this there is an area somewhat north of Puerto Rico that has a small chance of becoming something. (I'd bet against it) But otherwise, nothing else going on at the moment.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

Joseph Johnston's Mobile Alabama Webcam (Hosted on CFHC)

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for Isaac. From Michael Bryson.
Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports
Satellite images at: [Visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [Infrared] (infrared), and [Water Vapor] (water vapor)
Loops: Visible Loop - Infrared Loop - Water Vapor Loop
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
[NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]


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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #7 (of 7 total)

Isaac (#1)
Posted by:
Steve H. Location: Palm Bay FL
Posted On 08:50AM 23-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNUQ*)


I don't think that shear will be a big problem for Isaac, but I do feel if he doesn't pick up forwward speed he will not make it across the pond. He will lose the upper level support that is building to the north and west. In order to make it across the atlantic, he must stay in tandem with this support. His current forward motion has slowed during the past 12 hours, which could be due in part to his developing. But some models have him picking up speed again. This is too be seen. I'm also interessted in a wavw in the central caribbean, per the NCEP discussion. Shower and T'storm activity has increased in this area and heights are expected to fall in this area. But's that's a wild card at this time. Cheers!!

eye-aac (#2)
Posted by: Alex K
Posted On 10:54AM 23-Sep-2000 with id (VSNTRNQTQNQYW*)


On the latest visibles it looke like Isaac has developed a nice eye structure.

Isaac (#3)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.petersburg, Fl
Posted On 12:08PM 23-Sep-2000 with id (RQVNSNQXRNQPY*)


Yes,It does look like an Eye is starting to form this may mean he is a Hurricane now or will be very soon.Looks like every thing is there for him to get stronger.The Nhc says he may be at 90mph an hour in 72hrs.I think it will be a bit stronger than that.Maybe near 100mph just my thinking. Joe

Isaac (#4)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.petersburg, Fl
Posted On 12:09PM 23-Sep-2000 with id (RQVNSNQXRNQPY*)


Yes,It does look like an Eye is starting to form this may mean he is a Hurricane now or will be very soon.Looks like every thing is there for him to get stronger.The Nhc says he may be at 90mph an hour in 72hrs.I think it will be a bit stronger than that.Maybe near 100mph just my thinking. Joe

Yes, Eye! (#5)
Posted by:
Darcy Location: Ontario, Canada
Posted On 01:18PM 23-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNTXNQRSNSY*)


She seems to be a well-compact hurricane with an eye.
I tend to agree with Joe, since the upper-level trough may not get in the way.

Any thoughts on the Arr. and north of Antill. systems?


Yes, Eye! (#6)
Posted by:
Darcy Location: Ontario, Canada
Posted On 01:18PM 23-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNTXNQRSNSY*)


She seems to be a well-compact hurricane with an eye.
I tend to agree with Joe, since the upper-level trough may not get in the way.

Any thoughts on the CArr. and north of Antill. systems?


Isaac (#7)
Posted by:
Richard Byett (http://www.stormwarn2000.com) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 01:26PM 23-Sep-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNSRNQUX*)


The eye looks like a little pin prick on satellite imagery, and isaac appears to be a compact storm overall. I too feel the upper level trough may have little effect on this system. If it can get reaslly going and crank up like Andrew did then it will mould its environment like he did, and he was a compact storm too! As for threat to land, well i think it is an outside chance that he will affect the Lesser Antilles, but the Bahamas may be more at risk in a few days time.
Incidentally if anyone has linked to, or bookmarked my site please not ethe url has changed from www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk to www.stormwarn2000.com
thanks :)



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