CFHC Talkback For News Story #113:
Newest Talkback: 02:15 PM 09-25 EDT

Cat 3 Isaac
05:06 PM EDT - 24 September 2000

Isaac has strengthened, weakened, and strengthened back into a major hurricane. It's future path, by all accounts, should make it a fish spinner. Isaac is an impressive storm, but all indications are that it will not affect land. We'll continue to watch it, however.

Otherwise, not much is going on. The only somewhat interesting system is the one southeast of Isaac.

We have a new webcam in St. Petersburg now, from Richard there. Thanks for the support, as always, and check it out.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.


NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for Isaac. From Michael Bryson.
Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports
Satellite images at: [Visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [Infrared] (infrared), and [Water Vapor] (water vapor)
Loops: Visible Loop - Infrared Loop - Water Vapor Loop
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
[NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #11 (of 11 total)
OPINIONS (#1)
Posted by: LONNY Location: HOLLYWOOD,FL
Posted On 05:26PM 24-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNQXW*)

I don't agree 100% that Isaac will turn harmlessly away. It is too early to tell if that is the truth.Most likely your right and most definitly climatology would agree. But with the models changing(not that I put much reliability on them)I think will have to wait and see. Will the trough along the East coast move out and have little effect on Isacc? Will the next trough heading off the east coast move far enough South to pick up Isacc or will a Upper High take control later in the period? I don't know and I don't think anyone knows for sure yet.
Besides Isaac! (#2)
Posted by: Richard Byett (http://www.stormwarn2000.com) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 06:02PM 24-Sep-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNQWWNXU*)

I know all eyes are on Major Hurricane Isaac right now, but dont forget there is more in the Atlantic Basin than just him! For example, as i posted yesterday, Helene may be on the return, with NHC saying the low that is the remnants of Helene, re-acquiring tropical characteristics. And it has taken a more easterly turn now too, keep eyes open for a recurvature back towards the US coast maybe!
And also the developing area in the Southwest Caribbean that is a threat to Nicaragua and Honduras (echoes of Mitch).
I am not saying we should forget Isaac, but just pointing out a couple of other interesting areas.
sw caribean (#3)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER)
Posted On 10:46PM 24-Sep-2000 with id (VSNQQNQVUNUU*)

The sw carribean is the only intrest in the tropics,,,,,,Issac might not even make it to 60w...sorry all,,,its way too far n to move w,,and a nw path should slowly start,,,,otherwise
tomorrow lets start talking more on the w carribean,,i feel as of now,,a recon will check out the system forming down there on Tuesday and it will be a TD by tuesday evn.
The Next TD (#4)
Posted by: Ed Dunham Location: Melbourne, FL
Posted On 12:14AM 25-Sep-2000 with id (VSNQVRNRRVNSQ*)

The Caribbean system still has a long way to go if it makes it at all - its very disorganized. However the system southeast of Issac is likely to become Joyce before any TD forms in the Caribbean. This system, south of the Cape Verde Islands, is already showing signs of structural organization - strong convection and a developing outflow.
Cheers,
ED
ISSAC (#5)
Posted by: mark
Posted On 04:34AM 25-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRVNWTNRQ*)

just listening to twc update, and as Richard and I said the other day, and as mike bono just said issac seems to be creating its own path and enviroment. he also pointed out that tho Issac may miss the islands, a track back to more westerly toward usa, could be down the road. This is what also occured with Andrew he went even farther nw than Issac will. High pressure turned Andrew west, but also its strength built its own high pressure. I lived in south fla. then and i recall tracking it that it was the most direct path i can remember.At one time in its path it only moved maybe one degree or two north of exactly due west over 3 to 4 days. John Hope pointed this out then and Bob Sheets has also since then. That the ridge was there, but also a powerful hurricane can produce its own high pressure along with the other high above it.They also said this doesnt happen alot, but just with powerful hurricanes in the past as i said yesterday. Looking at satt. photos this morning Issac looks to be strengthining more. and disturbance trof west of it is weakining.
Andrew created it's own Steering ? (#6)
Posted by: ORLANDODUDE Location: O-TOWN, FLORIDA
Posted On 07:41AM 25-Sep-2000 with id (RQVNWXNRSPNRPX*)

I lived in South Florida During the time of Andrew, and you are correct his path was a fairly straight line West. However, it should be noted that Andrew wobbled quite a bit and in the end the storm hit further South than was thought.

Regarding steering of Andrew, Andrew rode the edge of the high pressure system to the north of it. Andrew did not create that high pressure system north of it, it already existed. As far as climatology is concerned, Andrew was born the middle of August with landfall near the end of August and this system was a mid-late September storm, that will not make landfall (if it occurs) until October.. Looking back, you will find that it is extremely rare for hurricanes to make it to US from off the coast of Africa. While, Isaac is something to watch, we will see a much more Northward and then eventually a North Eastern component in up comming days.

Just my opinion..







91L -J (#7)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 08:07AM 25-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRQVNXUNTS*)

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP HURRICANE MODEL..GFDL MMM...FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION NAMELESS 91L



INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 25



FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 10.9 27.8

6 10.9 28.9 268./10.7

12 10.9 29.4 279./ 4.9

18 10.9 29.5 270./ 1.6

24 10.9 30.5 265./ 9.5

30 10.7 31.3 258./ 8.2

36 10.6 31.7 255./ 4.3

42 10.4 32.6 262./ 8.2

48 10.1 32.9 228./ 4.4

54 10.2 33.7 276./ 8.0

60 10.4 34.7 283./10.3

66 10.6 35.9 277./11.7

72 10.8 37.1 279./11.9

78 10.9 38.3 274./11.4





An Answer about Hurricanes Creating Their Own Environments (#8)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 08:42AM 25-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNSV*)

Well, with all the debate on whether or not hurricanes can create their own environments, I decided to ask one of our local forecasters, Mike Clay from Bay News 9 to answer the question. Here was his answer:

Colleen,

We now know that a strong hurricane can change the weather around it. But its like the old question, "which came first the chicken or the egg?" If a hurricane becomes very strong, it probably because of the lack of strong
upper level winds. If those winds existed in the first place, the hurricane probably wouldn't have gotten very strong. However, we've seen strong
hurricanes create their own upper level patterns in the past. One example that comes to mind was powerful Hurricane Gilbert in 1988. It continued to move on a WNW track for its entire life, even though upper level winds would have turned it to the north. However, in 1980 Hurricane Allen was a
category 5 when it moved into an unfavorable wind pattern just off the Texas coast and weakened rapidly to a category 3.



----------------------- Headers --------------------------------
Return-Path:

So you see, it's not etched in stone whether or not they can or cannot...and it's also not etched in stone that Isaac will turn to the north either. It's just a game of wait and see for now.

Colleen
Isaac, and a new TD? (#9)
Posted by: Richard Byett (http://www.stormwarn2000.com) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 08:44AM 25-Sep-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNSSNQVQ*)

The system to the southeast of Isaac continues to develop, and in my opinion may already be a TD. If it does develop into a named storm, and being so close to Isaac, it will be interesting to see if we end up with a Fujiwhara Effect. If that occurs then where Isaac, or the new system, goes will be any bodys guess!
Incidentally i still think the area in the southwest Caribbean has some potential. There is areas of good convection, and cloud top temps are very cold in many areas, some as low as -82'! A Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert is in effect for this area from my site today, but i think development will slowly occur.
The tropics are very interesting at this time, and we will be kept busy over the next few days i feel!

Thanks Colleen (#10)
Posted by: OrlandoDude (http://†) Location: O-Town
Posted On 09:37AM 25-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRQYNRPYNVX*)

Thanks for your update. Its great to see everyone participate in this discussion....

I think FL should watch out this comming week, for the SW Caribbean.. Just a hunch !!!



Your Welcome! (#11)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 10:15AM 25-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNSV*)

I will DEFINITELY be watching the Caribbean this week!!! No doubt about it!!!

Colleen
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