CFHC Talkback For News Story #115:
Newest Talkback: 03:48 AM 10-11 EDT

TD#11 No More, TD#12 Moving Slowly
06:01 PM EDT - 06 October 1999

TD #11 is no longer, but the Gulf of Mexico is still brewing clouds and rain over Floirda.

TD #12 is moving slowly through the Atlantic with a WNW motion, if it remains weak a more westerly movement may begin. We will be watching this one and a few other lows in the region.

- [jc]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #14 (of 14 total)
Gulf lows, TD 12, and incipient #13 (#1)
Posted by: Bill
Posted On 06:37PM 06-Oct-1999 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNUQ*)

That low swirl south of La is very impressive, and is beginning to develop some convection. However, the atmosphere is very dry there.

What is more interesting is what is happening west of Florida. Does anyone else see a low developing there with impressive convection? Is this a surface low, or the reflection of an upper feature?

TD 11 is still trying for a comeback, not a writeoff yet.

What a mess!

Meantime..TD 12 is getting considerably sheared. is that an upper low shearing it just to the NE?

Finally, looks like td 13 is about to debut just s of the Cape Verdes.

Remember, in La Nina years, the late season can be anomalously active.

Thoughts on any/all of the above?
Depression(s) (#2)
Posted by: Steve H Location: Palm Bay FL
Posted On 07:51PM 06-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNQVT*)

Yes Bill, it seems that there are suspicious areas still in the Gulf of Mexico, and TD #11 is down , but not out. TD # 12 seems to be getting sheared from an upper low to its NE (I've also noticed this during the day), but it should begin moving west again and being somewhat weak it will be interesting to see if it goes north or south of the islands (Puerto Rico). The system south of the Cape Verdes is still looking healthy, and is further south than TD #12. This is late in the season for this to develop that far east, but this is LaNina and it could become a powerful system if it survives through the central atlantic. Yes, the area west of Florida looks quite suspicious also, not sure what to make of it, but there is ridging to its north. Anyone out there got a clue on that?
The Gulf and TD 12 (#3)
Posted by: Ronn Raszetnik, Jr. Location: Largo, Florida
Posted On 08:49PM 06-Oct-1999 with id (RPWNVYNTSNQQP*)

The low pressure center south of Louisiana is certainly very well-defined at low levels; however, a very dry, prevailing air mass over the region will repress development. The low pressure system over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is a frontal low. As the main emphasis of the associated trough moves east, the low pressure center could develop into a barotropic system, but this scenario is doubtful.

God Bless You,
Ronn Raszetnik, Jr.
future storms (#4)
Posted by: scottsvb
Posted On 10:05PM 06-Oct-1999 with id (VSNRSNQXWNTP*)

Hello all,,,,, I'm only back briefly to quickly
inform you all to the happenings in the tropics.
First off, the depression in the Gulf is gone, but will produce heavy rain up to the texas coast by late in the week. The low level swirl in the gulf is a cut off low from an old front,,,no
worries on that,,,,, a low south of the Cape Verdy
islands should develop, but be slow to gain a tropical storm status,but should be a depression soon. The depressipon thats out there now is undergoing alot of share and it should continue to move west and north, but not affect the islands,,development there will be slow,,,,,so basicly there's nothing to write home about folks,,,,but if you do want to know about a threat then get ready for the middle of next week,,,,,,,I have inpoints on a fairly strong
tropical sytem forming in the carribean,,and moving north towards cuba,by early next week,,,,coming close to florida by Weds,,,,,stay tuned all,,,,and as you know,,,,my forcasts are very accurate in the sytems that I use to forcast these,,,,,I will write more on this later.scottsvb
I Need Your Help!!!! (#5)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 11:08AM 07-Oct-1999 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNVR*)

As you can see, I have a new screen name due to a GLITCH with my home computer. I had to cancel my OLD account and start a new one blah blah blah. What I need if you guys can help me is the website address to Mike Anderson's new weather page. I can't seem to pull it up on search, if any of you have it, would you be so kind as to pass it along? Oh, and Steve, as far as that system for next Wednesday
Next week (#6)
Posted by: Bill
Posted On 01:04PM 07-Oct-1999 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNUQ*)

Hi all..

Some of the models are showing the rumored development in the gulf next week. That is where this is coming from. Time will tell!

Sorry, don't have the address for MA site. Would like it myself.

Still a pretty impressive ball of convection in the gulf off the Yucatan, moving around the high to the N. Thoughts?

Will td 12 survuive, will td 13 form soon? Stay tuned!

IHS,

Bill
mike's page (#7)
Posted by: alan byrd
Posted On 02:34PM 07-Oct-1999 with id (RPVNRVNRTYNSR*)

Here's the address.
http://www.fortunecity.com/greenfield/tigris/622/weather/ectwf.htm
The other thing is, where are you guys seeing this hurricane. The Nogaps 144 hour model still has it south of cuba by next Wednesday. Of course, with that path, the storm would be very near Florida, but I'll wait until I see it. Since NOGAPS correctly called the formation of Harvey, they have shown several tropical systems forming, but they never did. This could be similar.

Mike's site address (#8)
Posted by: Bill
Posted On 02:48PM 07-Oct-1999 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNUQ*)

Tried the address for Mike and it doesn't work..says there is no such site. Any better address?

U are right..all the models have over forcast formation of tropical cyclones,also the storm, if it were to form, would be very late in the week at the earliest.

In the meantime, it appears a circulation is forming N of the Yucatan, but is still mixed up in the larger circulation throughout the area. Also, looks like 11 might be making a comeback attempt.

TD 12 is ragged, but may be reforming further south..if not, it is outta here I think.

TD 13 at 5pm..looks pretty promising right now. South of Cape Verdes.

And there is even a swirl in the south central carib! Lots of vorticity around.

Prety busy for early October, but the seasonal trend of being reluctant to form quickly, or intensify quickly, seesm to be in place.

Bill
Mike's Site Address (#9)
Posted by: kathy
Posted On 03:16PM 07-Oct-1999 with id (QYXNQXTNQTRNQQY*)

The address for Mike's site is:

http://www.fortunecity.com/greenfield/tigris/622/weather/ectwp.htm

The address posted earlier had a one-letter typo.

Hope this helps.
address (#10)
Posted by: alan byrd
Posted On 03:36PM 07-Oct-1999 with id (RPVNRVNRTYNSR*)

sorry. The last "f" should have been a "p"
Thanks!!! (#11)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland
Posted On 04:55PM 07-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNRX*)

Thank you everyone!!! I did get it, but I will some info along to you too--- you can get a direct link to Mike's website by going to Storm Links on this site, and keep going down until you see Mike's. Just click on it and it will take you right there. Thanks again for all your help. Keep your eyes peeled!!!!! Colleen
Tropics dying again (#12)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: Palm Bay Fl
Posted On 05:35PM 08-Oct-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNUR*)

Looks like the hostility in the atlantic has got the best of TD#12, as well as the system behind it, which may still have a chance to develop, but its not looking as healthy as it did last night. Another system further east also looks impressive, but may encounter the same unfavorable conditions. It is late in the season for cape verde systems. Area of convection looks interesting east of the bahamas on the sagging front, but no low associated with it. Also build up of convection in the caribbean again, but still no sign of Irene soon. Anything more on the projected caribbean system lately? Nogaps shows the same scenario as yesterday, MRF is taking it into the western gulf day 9.
Tropical Activity (#13)
Posted by: Ronn Raszetnik, Jr. Location: Largo, Florida
Posted On 06:04PM 08-Oct-1999 with id (RPWNVYNTVNYT*)

I do not understand why the NOGAPS and MRF models portend tropical cyclogenesis in the Caribbean Sea. In my opinion, development anytime soon is equivocal.

God Bless You,
Ronn Raszetnik, Jr.
site (#14)
Posted by: scottsvb
Posted On 11:48PM 10-Oct-1999 with id (VSNQSNSVNRRS*)

why don't they update this site.....scottsvb
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