CFHC Talkback For News Story #117:
Newest Talkback: 04:07 AM 10-14 EDT

Tropical Storm Irene
01:24 PM EDT - 13 October 1999

Tropical Storm Irene forms. Could Florida be the target?
Please excuse the "Storm Spotlight" and a lot of other stuff on the site that is not working due to our cgi hosting problems. At least the COMMENT area is working. Our extensive LINKS area will help you in your reserch of Irene.
It seems you all are doing a great job in the comment (discussion) area, so keep it up. And thank you for supporting CFHC through all our troubles.

For more information on Irene, NRL Monterey Tracking Site (Navy) -- Very nice forecast track graphics.
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
GFDL Model & Plot for Irene and for BAMB,BAMM, LBAR & A90E Models Irene
Irene Multiple Model Forecast Composite from Michael Bryson

Weather Channel Caribbean Sat Image
Intellicast Caribbean IR Loop
Intellicast Atlantic IR Loop

More Sat images: Storm Centered imagery.

[N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.


- [jc]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #11 (of 11 total)
IRENE (#1)
Posted by: MARK Location: FT MYERS
Posted On 01:37PM 13-Oct-1999 with id (QRNWWNQUPNQYX*)

Irene continues to strengthen this afternoon with satelite pictures showing good banding and outflow. Forecasts continue to move Irene northward and then northeastward over the next 72 hours to a position aprox. 100 miles w-sw of
Ft Myers Florida. Winds are projected to be 85mph at that time. Recon flight is on its way to Irene as I write so this afternoon we should have a better idea on what Irene is going to do. The forcast track is based on a trough moving into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend which should move Irene northeastward and increase its forward speed. Bands of rain are already visible on radar heading towards the Florida Keys.
SST (#2)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 01:50PM 13-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNUV*)

Looking at the current SST's, it looks like it's a good breeding ground for a modestly strong storm. The Tampa Bay Egglet Key is reporting 81*, but offshore it looks like it is a little bit warmer. What effect will this have on the strength? Is this pretty warm? Normal?
Irene (#3)
Posted by: scottsvb
Posted On 02:07PM 13-Oct-1999 with id (VSNRSNQXWNRS*)

Folks,,,,good comment by Mark in Ft. Myers,,he is
pretty much on with this,,,,,,

Well anyways......first of the recon reports show
Irene as a weak tropical storm,,,,,western edge is
ragged,,but getting better defined,,,,,,note
people that this will be alot easier to forcast
than Harvey,cause he was a weak storm.

First off,,Irene should be no stronger than 50mph
by this evening,,,,but will intensify slowly
tonight into tomorrow,,and alot more Thursday
night,,,,,. Thursday evening Irene should be
classified as a hurricane as she passes just west
of the northern tip of Cuba,,,,heading north.

By Friday morning she should feel the trough and
begin to move more northeastward,,,,,winds should
be around 100mph,,maybe more. By evening she
should be and stay around 110mph as she feels the
affect of the trough and not get too much stronger
and due to the decrease in water temps also. At
that evening period she should be west of Ft.Myers
heading towards west-centralflorida. Landfall is
that hardest part folks,,,betwwen Sarasota,,and
Cedar Key,,,,,things could change.....! Also
just to note:: watch the water vapor people over
the next 2 day also,,,,to see if there is alot of
moisture to the west of her,,,,if so she will be
a stronger hurricane,,,,if dry air moves in then
in might be a minimal one,,,,,>. But I told ya
what will happen,,,,,I will write more later..
scottsvb
TS Irene (#4)
Posted by: Tom Coc Location: Miami
Posted On 03:40PM 13-Oct-1999 with id (VSNQUNYSNQSP*)

Watching on sat this afternoon Irene is heading more northward then early reported. This could pose a larger threat to the keys and south Fl. if the through moves in a little sooner. We will know alot by tomorrow morning.
Irene (#5)
Posted by: Mark Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 04:06PM 13-Oct-1999 with id (QRNWWNQUPNQTX*)

Irene continues to look beter organized this afternoon and the recon flight found the center much further north than first thought. Winds are still 40mph and a slow strengthening trend should continue tonight as it becomes better organized on the western half of the storm. Because of Irene's position more north Cuba will not have too much time to get ready fore this one. As for the U.S. the southwest Florida area including the Keys need to stay close contact on the latest advisories. Some models are strengthening Irene as much as a weak Cat.#3 storm in 72 hours off the southwest coast of Florida. For now Irene should produce heavy rains for western Cuba over the next 24 hours. Beyond 24 hours I am a little worried on the exact path but if I had to guess right now Irene will continue moving north thru 48 hours and then depending on the approaching trough and the forward speed of Irene will determine the possible landfall. I am going out on a limb here and say landfall will be between Everglades City and Sarasota Florida but don't hold me too it yet..
Irene (#6)
Posted by: Mark Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 04:37PM 13-Oct-1999 with id (QRNWWNQUPNQXW*)

The latest visible satelite is now showing over the last 2 hours thunderstorms now developing on the western side of the center. If this continues strengthening will be a little faster than I first thought. We could be looking at a hurricane in the next 18 hours..
Steady development (#7)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: Palm Bay Fl
Posted On 09:38PM 13-Oct-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRPQNWW*)

Looks like Irene is slowly but steadily getting better organized. Last satellite loops show the strong band of thunderstorms ready to close off around the circulation center. Movement still is to the north and this is expected to continue for the next day or so. Don't see any reason why this shoudn't become a hurricane by early tomorrow, with further intensification after passing through Cuba. Don't know the latest reliable guidance as to track beyond that, but with a trough coming in later in the period, Sarasota to St Pete then across the state to the Cape is as good a guess as any. Anyone have model updates?
IRENE AND FLORIDA (#8)
Posted by: Mike Anderson (http:// www.fortunecity.com/greenfield/tigris/622/weather/ectwp.htm) Location: Miami
Posted On 10:21PM 13-Oct-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNWY*)

Good evening, I have not posted in this great web site in quite some time as I have been very busy with my site, East Coast Tropical Weather Center. Anyway let me say that IRENE should be upgraded to hurricane status as soon as tonight or very early tomorrow. As for watches I think they will be extended further north and east. Looking at all the forecasting guidance tonight has the ridge to the systems NE weakening and the trough swinging down from the central states. This should turn the cyclone to the NE, however when and where is the key. At this time I feel it is rather safe to say that south Florida will get heavy rain and possible hurricane conditions later Friday night and on through Saturday. All residents along the south west Florida coast should be preparing now for the arrival of IRENE. I would like to add that I have seen great posting in this site, you all are right on the $$$$$, if you like you can also post on my site i'm sure the readers that enter my site would like to read your post's as well. Thank you,
Mike Anderson Florida WX.
All's Quiet on the Western Front (#9)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: Palm Bay FL.
Posted On 10:39PM 13-Oct-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRPQNVR*)

If there's good news with Irene its that she is lacking deep convection on her west side which may restrict significant intensification. Don't know if its due to drier air or just part of the development stage. We'll see if this changes as it passes through Cuba. The bad news is that we're on east side of this system, maybe NE quadrant when (if) it cuts across the state.
Irene (#10)
Posted by: troy
Posted On 11:36PM 13-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQURNVRNXQ*)

Hello everyone. A check of a few different forcast modles shows different projected paths for Irene. The Canadian model moves the storm well to the east, south of West Palm, and into the Atlantic at close to the Bahamas in just 48 hours!?. The ukmet and avn on the other hand send her more northward into the eastern gulf on a much slower course. The official forcast hints at a slower projected speed than previously anticipated. None the less it should make that northeastern turn, bringing it across the penninsula by mid afternoon on saturday maybe saturday night. But, then againIm not a weatherman, dont even play on on tv:)!just averaging all the models and the guesses from all the self proclaimed "old-timers" on my block...
get some sleep tonight...dont stay up save it all for the weekend...it should be an intersesting one
troy

IRENE (#11)
Posted by: PIRATEPAT Location: NOKOMIS
Posted On 12:07AM 14-Oct-1999 with id (VSNRUNQUUNQWP*)

YES YOU ARE RIGHT IT WILL BE A LONG DAY TOMORROW TIME TO SLEEP.GOD BLESS US.
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