CFHC Talkback For News Story #118:
Newest Talkback: 02:41 AM 10-15 EDT

Hurricane Irene Forms South of Western Cuba
06:17 AM EDT - 14 October 1999

Although the future track is still somewhat debatable, signs indicate that it will effect us in Florida this weekend. There is already a hurricane Watch for the southern half of the Keys and for a good portion of western Cuba. We may see watches for the West Coast tomorrow.

How strong will Irene get and where will landfall be? This is open for discussion, and I'm not willing to comment yet. The storm is growing stronger now, but Cuba will impede it a bit. How much it does may be critical for us. We'll be watching.



For more information on Irene, NRL Monterey Tracking Site (Navy) -- Very nice forecast track graphics.
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
GFDL Model & Plot for Irene and for BAMB,BAMM, LBAR & A90E Models Irene
Irene Multiple Model Forecast Composite from Michael Bryson

Weather Channel Caribbean Sat Image
Intellicast Caribbean IR Loop
Intellicast Atlantic IR Loop

More Sat images: Storm Centered imagery.

[N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.


- [mac]

Show All Comments
Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #48 (of 48 total)
Irene (#1)
Posted by: Robin (http://Usufruct.net) Location: Melrose, FL
Posted On 07:03AM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPYNRQRNQSRNQYW*)

I haven't reviewed the lastest forecast, but if Irene passes around the eastern end of the Sierra de los Organos it probably won't be impacted all that much by the island of Cuba as we are only speaking of a narrow land crossing of sixty to seventy miles in width. Of course if it passes to the west of the mountains there will be virtually no impact as that would mean practically no overland path. Even if it passes directly over the Sierra, I wonder if the effect will be all that great as we are not speaking of a high, solid wall of mountains, but rather of a broken chain of fairly low mountains to high hills. I know Pinar del Rio and the Organos are not impressive in terms of being a major physical obsticle (yet are among the most beautiful and other-worldly mountains I have ever seen anywhere. Any thoughts?
Irene's future (#2)
Posted by: jim williams (http://www.hurricanecity.com)
Posted On 08:03AM 14-Oct-1999 with id (QRNWWNQUVNXP*)

I dont think west cuba will hurt Irene at all,in fact I expect continued strengthening for the next 48 hrs as she could reach major hurricane by saturday morning.The fly in the ointment would be a cold front which before landfaLL COULD weaken her a bit before coming ashore just south of Tampa.(past hurricanes in this area have not lost strength)
stalling hurricane (#3)
Posted by: alan byrd
Posted On 08:12AM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPVNRVNRTYNSR*)

I may be one of the disbelievers, but I don't believe Central Florida will see much from this one.
Looking at the water vapor images now, it is hard to see any cold front coming in from the northwest. There is a big high pressure system just to the north of the gulf of mexico.
I have to believe that the NOGAPS models, which are the best in predicting fronts and hurricanes this season, has some accuracy to it. If you haven't seen it, the model pushes Irene slowly to the west and then back east again. She is nearly at the same place six days from now.
Sure enough as of the eight a.m. advisory, Irene has stalled. The question is how long. If she picks up again today, I'm wrong, but I don't see anything that would move her north, only west.
Irene (#4)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 08:14AM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNQXV*)

Well, I agree about Cuba virtually having no impact on Irene. From what I can see, it is passing over the western portion and the NHC is saying that it is basically flat there, so they don't think it will really affect her. The other question is how much rain will this system produce? They are already expecting 5-10" in the southern portion of Florida and have issued a flood watch which will probably be extended northward tomorrow. If it stalls out over the open Gulf of Mexico, it could just become more intense as it sits over those warm waters. I think that will be a key issue also. Guess we will all find out!!! Colleen
The Models (#5)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 08:17AM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNQXV*)

Alan - just one comment on the NOGAPS model: it also has Irene almost at the western tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. Most of the forecasters I have heard and or read say they are pretty much discarding the Nogaps model on this one. I guess we will wait and see what happens though. Not being argumentative, just posting what I read this morning.
nogaps arguement (#6)
Posted by: alan byrd
Posted On 09:21AM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPVNRVNRTYNSR*)

Colleen, I like people who are argumentative. It helps form the best opinion. That is the purpose of this talkback, so that us hurricane junkies can pretend to be weatherpeople and find out what others think about our thoughts. I know I don't have another outlet of people who are as interested in hurricanes as I am.
Anyway, in support of NOGAPS, they also disregarded it with Harvey because it said that Harvey would move south before making the turn. While NOGAPS was a little extreme on how far south, it was the ONLY model showing Harvey's turn to the south.
But besides Nogaps, I just don't see anything out there to move Irene any other way but west. If you do, show me where I can see it.
Thanks.
Irene (#7)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 09:33AM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNQXV*)

Alan---Hey I like you!!! You're right, there is no other way for people like us to talk back and forth. As for the cold front, they really weren't expecting that to make much of an impact until later today when it starts to slide down from Canada..some of the forecast discussions I have read from Florida this morning (from the IWIN site) stated that this system would stall until the system moved further south and started to have an impact on it. I would agree with you on NOGAPS, but so many other models have it moving on the forecast track it's hard to discount those also. I guess we will just wait and see. I just looked at the local radar and there are already feeder bands coming in just below Vero Beach. Looks heavy, too.
Hurricane Irene (#8)
Posted by: sir
Posted On 09:40AM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNRX*)

I am totally up in the air on this one, I'm thinking Florida Panhandle right now, will see. :)
feeder bands (#9)
Posted by: alan byrd Location: orlando
Posted On 09:44AM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPVNRVNRTYNSR*)

Doesn't it look like the only strong part of the hurricane is those feeder bands. They've moved quite a bit this morning and don't seem to be slowing down. Here in Orlando, the sun is shinning with just some high clouds. I don't think that's going to last for too much longer. If you look at the radar out of Key West, you can see the center of the storm. While it's not well defined, it looks like it started to very slowly move to the north. I hate waiting until 11 to find out.
Feeder Bands (#10)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 09:50AM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNQXV*)

Yes, it does look less organized on the western edge. However, it could be making somewhat of a comeback. I noticed on the satellite loop it is looking a teensy weensy more organized. I love looking at the clouds (for now) over here. So many different levels. Anyway, looks like the sunshine could cause havoc when those feeder bands start heading our way. It's sunny here too. Looks like heavy heavy rain. I also hate waiting until 11:00. and then 2 and then 5. But, hey, at least we can TALK amongst ourselves until then, right?
ramblings (#11)
Posted by: alan byrd Location: orlando
Posted On 09:58AM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPVNRVNRTYNSR*)

Colleen,
I guess it's just us on the talk today, which is a shame, because I would like to here what others think about Irene.
Unfortunately I have to do some work from 10:30 to 11:30, but I'll post after then.
Irene (#12)
Posted by: Ronn Raszetnik, Jr. Location: Largo, Florida
Posted On 10:17AM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPWNVYNTVNQQP*)

Irene has slowed down considerably this morning in response to the weakening of steering currents aloft. A trough of low pressure has passed to the north of Irene, leaving Irene in an environment conducive to only slow northward progression over the next 24 hours. As an intense trough of low pressure stoops down from the north, the steering currents will fortify from the south-southwest, instigating a faster north-northeast motion. As for the chances of a westward motion, I think they are little. The overall cloud outline indicates that any motion will be northward.

The intensity of Irene should remain at 75 MPH as the storm moves across western Cuba. Thereafter, I expect to see the commencement of steady intensification to strong Category 1 or Category 2 strength. Intensification is dependent on the effects of dry air in the western Gulf and the anticipated trough of low pressure.

God Bless You,
Ronn Raszetnik, Jr.
Irene (#13)
Posted by: Mark Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 10:43AM 14-Oct-1999 with id (QRNWWNQUPNQVS*)

Irene has stalled but this in it self is threatening for Florida. Most models yesterday showed a slow down north of Cuba aand then a more n-ne track there after. If this is the slow down that models forecasted then its much further south and as it starts to move again we may see a just east of north track develope and this may allow Irene to move more towards south Florida in the long term. I may be stretching it a little but this mournings upper air run is making me hedge a little this way for now..
Irene,,quick post (#14)
Posted by: scottsvb
Posted On 10:47AM 14-Oct-1999 with id (VSNRSNQXTNRQY*)

Well,,,this will be very brief,,,and I will post
again will the next news on here comes out since
it should be soon.

Looking at her briefly,,she is a very disorganized
hurricane,,actually the pressure shows her still
as a tropical storm,,but they call her one anyway.

She is interacting with Cuba now and will be there through this afternoon,,later this evening when she slowly pulls north of there she will
intensify to maybe 100mph by morning,,,,,but lets
see how far off Cuba she is by then,,if barely,
then she might only be 80-90mph. scottsvb
Irene (#15)
Posted by: Bill
Posted On 12:14PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNUQ*)

Folks,

one thing to note is that the NHC has been consistently shifting the track more north, with the 72 hr position an 80 mph hurricane over the Ocala/Gville area. They have reasons for doing this. I agree that the 'stall' has come on early, but I am not sure what this means in the long run, other than a slower movt over Cuba may result in slight weakening, or at least no real intensification.

As to intensification...I believe we will eventually see a cat 2, near 100 mph, as long as the storm moves mainly along the NHC path. To the right and it may only be a Cat 1, to the left and it may edge toward Cat 3 status , and also would become a threat to the panhandle.

Disorganized...yes, there is a dry slot, to the east of the tight CDO, that the storm is trying to close off. However, there is a tight CDO, and the majority of the center convection is over or to the WEST of the actual center.

As re: pressure, Irene is a very efficient hurricane in that it is generating hurricane force winds with a 995 pressure. Sometimes you may see this with a spinning down storm ( I remember one storm a few yrs ago that was a hurricane with a 1007 pressure...but it was weakening and had inertia on its side.) If it can maintain this status, it may well strongly intensify after Cuba with a very tight core and relatively tight radius of 50 kt plus winds, and a looser area of TS force winds.

Bill

Time will tell, and this may be around for a while...depends on the trough..also, realize that the early slow/stat motion may make it harder for the upcoming trough to pick it up...therefore there may be more strengthening in the future, and a threat further north.
Irene's path or A lazy thursday afternoon with cats palying with my feet! (#16)
Posted by: troy
Posted On 01:17PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQURNVRNXV*)

hello!
While i do see the path taking it over the Gainesville/Ocala area as an 80 mph storm , I dont see the western side being the stronger side. Latest satalite iamges seem to show more convection on the eastern side. That and the trend of tropical systems to be stronger on the right front quadrant will keep most of Florida wet and a little wendy.

The last few satalite images show wgat apears to be a jog to the east, but is probably just a quick build upof storms on theeastern side coinciding with a temporary decline in the western activity...it made me do a double take none the less...either way the sunshine state will continue to be the rain state...:Þ

Troy
Irene (#17)
Posted by: Mark Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 01:40PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (QRNWWNQUQNQXV*)

The last few satellites show the center now north-northeast of its 11am position but also showing a more northward drift. I believe by looking at satellite pictures its now somewhere near 82.8 west. This could be significant if the 2pm advisory shows this repositioning. Any one else see the same on visible satellite?
Projected Path (#18)
Posted by: Terry [CFHC]
Posted On 01:46PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPTNRQUNRRYNSV*)

src="images/wcpp.jpg"
Irene,,,no threat to N florida,,,north of tampa??? (#19)
Posted by: scottsvb
Posted On 01:59PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (VSNRSNQXUNQSW*)

New postion is 82.4w this is the line
of Tampa,,,so people North of there should have
to worrie,,,and if this continues then only
people from Naples to West palm should take
interest in this,,,hhhmmmm is this another
storm afraid to hit Western Florida
Irene moving away (#20)
Posted by: scottsvb
Posted On 02:00PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (VSNRSNQXUNQSW*)

Note ,,,,I ment no threat,,,,,,,
east????? (#21)
Posted by: Alan byrd Location: orlando
Posted On 02:03PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPVNRVNRTYNSR*)

Well, my thoughts on going west or stalling don't seem to be panning out. Anybody know why the storm would be heading NE? That movement baffles me unless the trough that everyone thought had pulled out has lingered around a bit longer. If it's heading NE, then does that mean it will be torn up more by Cuba? What does all this mean?
Help
Irene and NOGAPs (#22)
Posted by: Bill
Posted On 02:09PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNUQ*)

Hmmm,

I don't find NOGAPS to be a real solid performer but the NOGAPs run track over S Fl may verify. The storm has jogged NE...whether this is due to terrain influence or whatever, I wonder. It seems to me the trough in the Gulf is a little stronger and more persistent than expected...it is clear looking at the cloud structure of Irene that a NE move was in store (noticed this the last few hrs). But, it already seems the trough is lifting and the cloud shield is going back to a more N-S orientation. I would't be surprised to see the storm go up the Keys and over extreme S Fl.

What could be interesting would be if the jog east straightens out to a more N movement, but then due to the fact that the storm is further east than expected, it may go up the center of the state, or east coast for a while!

This storm is not behaving, but what is new! So much for 'easier to forecast' than Harvey!

The ideas expressed earlier that the stall happening further s than forecast, may mean a more easterly path, may turn out to be correct.

Thoughts??

IHS,

Bill
Irene (#23)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 02:11PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNQWS*)

Scott- are you saying this is no threat to Florida at all anymore? That it's going to continue to move off to the ne and not hit anyone in Florida? I thought they just shifted the track to the right a little bit. I didn't hear them say this would be a permanent direction. Let me know what you are thinking.
Irene Moving Back Northward On Satellite (#24)
Posted by: Mark Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 02:46PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (QRNWWNQUPNRRR*)

The 2pm advisory did exactly what I thought. A eastward turn did take place for a few hours but now the last two pictures do show a northward movement again. Now things do change alot for southwest Florida and the Keys. Irene will move to the north over the next 48 hours and this now should bring Irene very close to southwest Florida late Friday. I also see a little strengthening taking place. I do not see much strengthening over the next 9-12 hours as Irene moves over Cuba but after it gets into the gulf I do see strengthening taking place more rapidly. I do see a possible extension of Hurricane warnings eastward in the Florida Keys at the 5pm advisory due to the eastward shift and maybe watches along the southwest coast of Florida will be brought up to warnings as well. This is all guess work right now but does seem a reasonable development at this time. We will have to wait and see. Now how strong will Irene get? The answer still is a Cat#2 storm with winds near 100mph gusts to 115mph. I don't see much stronger than this at this time and again its all guess work on my part. This change in position eastward makes Irene more of a threat to southwest Florida and even the northern Keys as well. People in Miami should also keep close eye on Irene there not out of the woods at all.
The next problem is rainfall. The forcast of 10"-20" I believe is a good figure at this time for alot of south Florida

Irene (#25)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 02:57PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNQXQ*)

I just heard a comment that Dr. Steve Lyons said about the movement to the east, one of the severe storm guys was mentioning about the storms movement and the radar out of Key West (he said it so fast I couldn't tell you word by word) but something about it looking like has moved more to the East than it actually has ...I know that doesn't make any sense whatsoever, I will see if he says it again next time. It does look like it took a more northward movement the last couple of loops, though.
Irene moving N (#26)
Posted by: Bill
Posted On 03:07PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNUQ*)

Mark, your comments are 100% right on. Agree entirely. I still think there is a possibility the storm will move right up the Peninsula...on the other hand, a skimmer right up the coast would be a Marco (1990) with teeth!

IHS,

Bill
weather channel (#27)
Posted by: alan byrd Location: orlando
Posted On 03:08PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPVNRVNRTYNSR*)

I've got to get home to watch the weather channel. It's not like I'm doing any work. All I do is keep reloading this website to see all the great postings. It's about time that we hear from someone other than me and Colleen — not that there's anything wrong with that.
Clarification (#28)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 03:20PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNQXQ*)

Ok, this time I caught what Dr. Lyon's was saying: the radar beam is coming from about 22,000 feet and it could make the circulation look as though it has moved more to the east than it actually has...that the center of circulation is probably a little sw than what the radar is showing. I have to say, I don't believe this storm is moving a 9mph. It just doesn't look like it to me. Then again, I could be wrong. I don't think anyone is out of the woods on this one yet.
Radar Beam (#29)
Posted by: John McLain
Posted On 03:29PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (QWPNQRNRRNRV*)

So why all of a sudden does the radar image manifest itself incorrectly? Has the height suddenly changed? If not, then why was this phenonmena not appearing earlier - say like oh, maybe, always?

I never fail to be amazed and amused when the unexpected happens and is met with weak explanations. Its all about TV ratings at this point.


Radar Beam (#30)
Posted by: John McLain
Posted On 03:29PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (QWPNQRNRRNRV*)

So why all of a sudden does the radar image manifest itself incorrectly? Has the height suddenly changed? If not, then why was this phenonmena not appearing earlier - say like oh, maybe, always?

I never fail to be amazed and amused when the unexpected happens and is met with weak explanations. Its all about TV ratings at this point.


comment (#31)
Posted by: scottsvb
Posted On 04:03PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (VSNQSNSVNRUS*)

Radar is the item to track to so called hurricane.
Since the pressure still is at 955mb,,,,it should
be a 60mph storm...........ratings and
evactuations......!!!

Well ignore now the satillite loops in direction.
We can track her with the radar,,,,,,It might
turn more to the N-northwest overnight,,but we
will know by morning where it will really hit.

Now it is south of Tampa and Ft.Myers,,,so a hit
on the west coast is unlikey,,,,,but we will
see what hapeens overnight,,,,,there is a slim
chance it might just brush the Keys and head
towards the Bahammas,,,,,,,,,Still is this another
storms afraid to hit West Florida,,,,,I will
give all my analysas later,. ,,the slim chance
of missing Florida is growing.
irene and jogging (#32)
Posted by: troy
Posted On 04:20PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQURNVRNXV*)

I dont think a Florida landfall is anywhere near out of the question. A few more hours of watching the forward progress of the storm will tell us more. I really dont think any community(read elected officials here) wants evacuations if not needed after the way somepeople reacted after Floyd. A ratings game, to say it is still going to resume back north, maybe. If this currnet movement is a quck jog, we may see the storm affecting a wider portion of the state. This will not be "going away" like harvey did regardless of its track ...
troy
New TD? (#33)
Posted by: Bill
Posted On 04:20PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNUQ*)

On another subject..
the AFD ( forecast discussion) from San Juan says another depression is forming on a wave at 33w, expected to move west at low latittudes into the Caribbean (and reference is made to Hazel in 1954). Does anyone know anything about this?

RE: Irene...she is going back to a more N-NNE course. I believe she will strike the Keys, and menace S/SW FL...could be through/up the Keys then to Dade. In fact, the NHC will put hurricane warnings up for the entire Keys at 5pm,and possibly a watch/warnings for SE Fl. The new forecast track takes the storm near Key West.

A miss...possible of course, but not likely. A path like Floyd in 97 is not out of the question. Odd the models are almost all still out to lunch?!
That does make me wonder about the 'ultimate' path///October storms can be trickier than usual!

IHS,

Bill



Irene,,,,,new TD..... (#34)
Posted by: scottsvb
Posted On 04:32PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (VSNQSNSVNRUS*)

Yes Bill,,,a new TD,,,,,could be in the works
in a couple days......Mrf model which is a
real good long range model(which prodicted Irene)
has a tropical strom heading south of Haiti by
Monday-Tuesday,,,,,,,,lets see later on that.

Irene new advisory could be back to a tropical strom,,,but will be alot stronger by morning,,,
maybe more of a north turn again overnight,,but
it doesn't,,then it will missall of western Florida. (only naples--West Palm)
Irene Almost Over Gulf Of Mexico (#35)
Posted by: Mark Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 04:37PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (QRNWWNQTYNQYT*)

Irene on the latest visible satellite is about 2/3 the way thru Cuba and is showing a circuliar center expanding around the center itself. I don't believe its an eye trying to form but maybe the influnce of it being over land. I'm not sure but would like some more imput from all of you.
I do believe Irene is back on a northward track and I have heard unoffically that a Hurricane Warning is going to be posted for southwest Florida at the 5pm advisory. If Irene stays on this northward track a landfall near Ft Myers is likely late Friday into Saturday. Heavy rain on radar is now approaching the Keys and this area will continue to move northward over night and into south Florida durring the mourning hours Friday. I live in Cape Coral which is along the coast just west of Ft Myers and the Emergency Management of Lee county is discussing mandentory evacuation on Friday for Ft Myers Beach and Sanible Island. Stay tuned.....
New watches and warnings (#36)
Posted by: Jeanine Location: Hollywood, FL
Posted On 04:58PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (VSNQSNTNQYS*)

Well S.E. Florida has now been added, a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch from Florida City to Jupiter inlet. I was just on my way home and the roads are terrible here, our backyard looks like a pond and some of the streets and starting to become unpassible in the residential areas! I'm glad to see all of the posts on this page! It was quiet for a bit!!!!
no turn to the east (#37)
Posted by: alan byrd Location: orlando
Posted On 05:06PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (QUPNQWVNVSNR*)

look at the latest track.There is no drastic turn to the east until later. The center has the storm keeping the nne movement across the state, entering below Ft. Myers and crossing directly across the state. It looks a lot like the path Donna took, if I'm not mistaken. Of course, Donna was a lot stronger storm.
But the latest track also has the storm only reaching 75K.
Irene intensifying, heading for Keys and SW Fl- Marco Island (#38)
Posted by: Bill Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 05:24PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNUQ*)

The pressure fel 2mb in last 3 hrs while Irene has been over land and an impressive bloom of deep convection is forming near and over the center and enlarging. The storm will probably reach borderline Cat 2 (80 kts I believe) before landfall near Marco.

The storm IS intensifying as it moves NNE..a switch to a more N path could take it right up the west coast, ala TS Marco in 1990, but much stronger.

Bill
Models out to lunch (#39)
Posted by: JimM Location: Kissimmee
Posted On 05:27PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNRTRNRRXNSS*)

Maybe its me but it looks like most of the latest model runs are completely out to lunch. I can't even find one that is initializing with info close to where Irene is. I will be so happy when it gets far enough away from Cuba that real recon can resume. Trying to pick these things off of radar and Sat pix is not very efficient at times.
Irene #58886 (#40)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 07:09PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNQWV*)

Just a little humor there to get everyone's attention!!! Well, it seems as though the pressure has dropped considerably, now down to 988mb according to TWC. It also looks as though it is now on a due N course. I have been watching this and will look again at 7:30pm because sometimes your eyes fool you and you think you see something you don't. As a matter of fact, it almost looked a wee bit west of due N...but then again, it's been a long week and my eyes are REALLY tired. She looks much better organized than earlier now that the storm has re-emerged over water. Well..keep up the great work everyone...post and post often. And check out Mike Anderson's site and post there too...we can never have too much info. Colleen
West Coast may not be out of it (#41)
Posted by: JimM Location: Kissimmee
Posted On 07:23PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNRTRNRRXNSR*)

I've been looking at the recon and sat for a while now[Slow night in the office with a nice T-3 for sucking down info :)], I did see the extrapolated pressure report from the NOAA aircraft of 988. Interesting thing is that they only found a max 53kt flight level wind. Cuba may have hindered Irene more than was initially thought. Although convection around the center seems to be on the increase now that it is moving off of Cuba. Recon fix even suggest a slight westerly component to the movement. That is in line with some of the models that bring it up the west coast. Probably best just to keep an eye on Irene. The picture may be muddled for a while more.
2 things (#42)
Posted by: scottsvb
Posted On 07:57PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (VSNQSNSVNRUP*)

1 Thing,,,,,,,she's moving nnw,,,,,a jog
Ready to Explode? (#43)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: Palm Bay Fl.
Posted On 08:06PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNSU*)

As Irene has come off the coast of Cuba the convection has really exploded. The pressure has fallen quite a bit and I'm afraid the bottom could drop out with rapid intensification if the atmosphere remains favorable. Its Northerly movement is bad since it could intensify more than expected if further out in the SE gulf. If then it turns NE after being over the water longer than thought it could be a real buzzsaw when (if) it goes across the peninsula near St. Pete (that where I figured it would go last night; my story and I'm sticking to it, even if its wrong). But even with the blowoff of some of the convection to the north and east, its center looks real impressive. Stay on guard for this one, maybe she heard Scott say she was afraid of the west coast!
BILL,IRENE (#44)
Posted by: SCOTTSVB
Posted On 08:19PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (VSNQSNSVNRUP*)

your call on this Bill is good,,,,I feel alittle
farther south. I thought for the whole duration
of this that she would explode tonight,,,but I
hope it wasn't down,,,due to the bad dry air,,,
and I told everyone 2 days ago to keep an eye
on that,,,,,,lets see what happens between 12am
and 5am,,,,,,,.(water vapor),,,Sarasota landfall?
Irene (#45)
Posted by: Ronn Raszetnik, Jr. Location: Largo, Florida
Posted On 09:17PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPWNVYNTPNQWV*)

Irene remains disorganized this evening as dry air over the northern Gulf of Mexico entraines into the western semicircle. This dry air will not subside as Irene moves north, therefore I expect to see little strengthening before landfall. After a northeast trot--prosaic for cyclones in a weak steering flow--Irene has resumed a northward motion this evening. This northward motion should continue for the next 24 hours and then bend toward the north-northeast thereafter. I expect landfall to occur somewhere between Ft. Myers and St. Petersburg in 36 to 48 hours.

God Bless You,
Ronn Raszetnik, Jr.
drop in winds (#46)
Posted by: alan Location: orlando
Posted On 09:58PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (QUPNQWVNVSNR*)

The latest recon flight said that the maximum surface winds were 50 kts for Irene. That puts her at tropical storm strength.
Looks like the dry air to the west is taking its toll and as far as future strenght, that puts her at a lower starting point when she decides to act up again.
latest recon (#47)
Posted by: alan Location: ORLANDO
Posted On 10:07PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (QUPNQWVNVSNR*)

Another little tid bit from the latest recon report. It put the location at 23.1 n, 82.4 w, meaning it's going a little bit east of ne.
John Hope on the weather channel just confirmed that it hadn't moved much and he doesn't expect it to move much for the next 24 hours.
In Orlando, we can still see stars. You would think that even with the little movement north, we would start to see the line of rain bands moving toward Orlando, but it seems as if that line, the edge of the rain, is moving further south.
Perhaps this is an indication of the storm's shrinking.
Hurricane Watches (#48)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 10:41PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRPVNQYW*)

As of 11 tonight, the Hurricane Watch has been extended northward to inlcude the Tampa Bay area...Anclote Key...this is a major development (considering the fact that we were pretty much written off as of the last advisory) it is still not over, but...pay attention Tampa...just pay attention. Colleen
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