CFHC Talkback For News Story #121:
Newest Talkback: 01:36 PM 10-16 EDT

Irene Makes Landfall in Southwest Florida
05:00 PM EDT - 15 October 1999

Irene is causing gusts all over in southern Florida and moving toward the northeast now. The worst will be overnight tonight.

Comments are working again!



For more information on Irene, NRL Monterey Tracking Site (Navy) -- Very nice forecast track graphics.
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
GFDL Model & Plot for Irene and for BAMB,BAMM, LBAR & A90E Models Irene
Irene Multiple Model Forecast Composite from Michael Bryson

Weather Channel Caribbean Sat Image
Intellicast Caribbean IR Loop
Intellicast Atlantic IR Loop

More Sat images: Storm Centered imagery.

[N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.


- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #18 (of 18 total)
NHC: Huh? What is this? (#1)
Posted by: JimM Location: Kissimmee
Posted On 05:07PM 15-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNRTRNRRXNSR*)

Either the hurricane center folks are suffering from sleep depravation or they are geniuses. The 5:00pm forecast has me a bit flabbergasted. Where is this westward component of the forecast coming from? At this point, I am barely buying the northward movement, let alone having Irene move a few clicks west. If that forecast verifies, I'll heap tons of praise on them. If not, someone needs to take a good look into their methods and models. Something may not be right in Miami.
NHC & Forecasts (#2)
Posted by: Kev
Posted On 05:54PM 15-Oct-1999 with id (RTNYUNRTSNRQ*)

Good point Jim. This storm has had a definite eastward component to it for over 24 hours, but still all we have heard out of Miami is north, north......north. I think if the models were to predict today was Wednesday, rather than Friday, they would issue a warning that the calendar was wrong and we should take whatever actions we deemed necesary. Generally, the NHC does a great job, but come on, when it looks like a duck, talks like a duck, then it is a duck!

I just heard Dr. Bob Sheets say that the models are still insisting that Irene will move up through the peninsula before exiting somewhere between Daytona and Jacksonville late Saturday night. I dunno, but if this storm keeps on its current track it will be off the east coast sometime tonite - south of Miami. Maybe by the time it is approaching the Bahamas the models will figure it out.

Keep up the great posts and thanks to the Webmasters for hanging in there during all your recent challenges.
Irene, The Models, and NHC (#3)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 08:17PM 15-Oct-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRPVNRPV*)

You guys are right...I can't believe how bad they blew this forecast!!! You could see it on radar it wasn't moving anywhere close to N/NE just basically maybe ENE, yet as you say, they INSISTED....and in the meantime, people were hit by surprise. As for the models, only one that I saw (GFDL) pulled it back to the west, the other ones were pretty much in agreement it would go NE. Guess what? This really stinks for them because NOONE will take them seriously the next time...that's already obvious in Central Florida. Oh well, enough bitching, but, I am so sick and tired of them and this stupid storm...I am OUTTA HERE. Thank you Mike A. and Steve for predicting the ACTUAL path of this hurricane. GO BRAVES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Irene may hold strength for awhile (#4)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: Palm Bay Fl.
Posted On 08:56PM 15-Oct-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNWS*)

I just got out of school and am trying to get on top of what's going on. Yes I was shocked when the forecast track was NNE to 80.1W, then 80.3 after that! If this storm gets its feet wet agin near Indian River County then it could sustain much of its strenght if it goes up the east coast. Where are they projecting this storm to exit the coast? Like I said I just got home and don't know the latest.
NHC Forecasts (#5)
Posted by: Ronn Raszetnik, Jr. Location: Largo, Florida
Posted On 09:21PM 15-Oct-1999 with id (RPWNVYNTTNRR*)

I agree that the National Hurricane Center's forecasting has been pitiable. I believe that the basis for this problem lies in heavy computer model reliance. It is obvious from NHC's Forecast Discussions that the office relies heavily on computer model output. Quotes like "reasonable blend of the models" sickens me. In my opinion, computer models create more problems than solutions. I believe that it is the job of the forecaster to predict future movement of tropical cyclones. Lets understand exactly what Computer modeling is: It is the use of computers to create abstract models of objects and processes; thus it follows the rule of GIGO--Garbage In, Garbage Out. This means that a computer model is only as good as the inputted information. Since there is no possible way to accurately represent the atmosphere digitally, computer models will be grossly errant. Then why should the forecaster even bother with such models? I don't know why they do. Personally, I am done with computer models.

Another thing that also sickens me is the issuance of watches and warnings. As Irene moved off the coast of Cuba, NHC issued a Hurricane Warning for my area (Tampa/ST. Pete). According to the NHC and media, I should expect hurricane conditions within 24 hours. It has been almost 24 hours now and the peak wind gust here at my house has been only 14 MPH. I have only received a trace of rainfall to boot. This is utterly ludicrous. In addition, the NHC is still keeping tropical storm warnings up for this area even though it is obvious that tropical storm force winds will not come anywhere close to this region. The public is never going to respect watches and warnings anymore.

As a final complaint :-), I cannot fathom how on earth the National Hurricane Center is setting the motion to NNE. The motion has obviously been ENE for hours and anyone can see that.

Well, I am sorry for rambling on about this, but I am sickened how NHC handled this storm and others before it. I hate to see people only realize the threat of hurricanes when a Hurricane Andrew strikes, but with the overplaying of recent storms, public awareness is not going to change.

One quick note, this is not all the NHC's fault. The media doesn't help either.

Whoa, the wind gusted to 7 MPH, I better get in my safe room. :-)

God Bless You,
Ronn Raszetnik, Jr.
What Else? (#6)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland well you know where that is by now!!
Posted On 10:04PM 15-Oct-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRPVNRPR*)

You are right...any fool could look at the radar (or at the motion of the clouds by now) and realize this storm is moving NE at a pretty fast clip. The REAL problem I have with this is that when a storm really IS going to hit us, not one single person will do what they are told. And that's what happened with Andrew...the problem here now is that people in W/E Central Florida have been sent on the run so MANY MANY times in the last 2 years, that when a real storm comes, no one will go anywhere. And that's when an Andrew will finally hit. In defense of the NHC, I must say that this storm has been difficult to predict (not really, if you had someone like Mike A. and Scott or any of us giving advice ;-) ,....). Also, in defense of the local media...I don't think they have overplayed this storm at all...if anything, they have been more right of the track then the NHC..and they have been right all along. As a matter of fact, some of them have even been questioning the track. So...you all are right,,,we have a reasonable gripe,..I am glad they are wrong, but I think this last storm was pretty easy to predict once it came off of Cuba. By the way...the winds here in Lakeland are picking up quite a bit...my ears are KILLING me (which I usually only get with big drops of pressure) and my knees hurt...other than that..everything else is fine. Take Care everyone...and I will eat crow if they are right. Bock bock.

Colleen
The Media (#7)
Posted by: Ronn Raszetnik, Jr. Location: Largo, Florida
Posted On 10:16PM 15-Oct-1999 with id (RPWNVYNTVNSP*)

I think that you are correct about the media. They handled the track fairly well. The thing that I don't like is how they begin extensive coverage when a storm is still many hundreds of miles away. That only creates exigency. But, I suppose they cannot do much about it.

God Bless You.
Ronn Raszetnik, Jr.
EAst Coast (#8)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: Palm Bay FL
Posted On 10:29PM 15-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNUT*)

Winds here are picking up significantly in southern Brevard Co. Latest IR I saw even showed a big blowup of convection out in the Atlantic as the storm is beginning to pull Atantic moisture into its circukation More and More now as it is approaching the Eastern half of the state. Wonder if they'll upgrade our Tropical Storm warnings to Hurricane warnings if the storm is still a hurricane when she reaches the coast? I'll let the NHC handle that!
everyone,,,and models (#9)
Posted by: scottsvb
Posted On 10:46PM 15-Oct-1999 with id (VSNQSNSWNUX*)


Toe everyone that bashed the NHC and Media,,,,,

Your all right on,,,,,,,,,,,,

The NHC is all on there models,,,,and different
dynamics and that's what is not reliable.

They don't look at the water vapor and to see
if there is enough moisture for the system,,,
also to see wheres the smaller trough,,,Only fronts. They are so reliable on there models
that they don't use,,,,,common sense.......

Models are good for the long range perdiction
of """AROUND"" where a storm will form. But
not all in direction. Computers make mistakes
and we need to use our own judgement.

I feel they need to see what is pushing the system
and not ignore that,,,,,,cause they don't rely on
the now,,,they look to much at there dynamic
model runs......

Now more than ever.....people in western Florida
will not care what is coming,,,,,until its too
late due to the terrible NHC forcasters.

Just to add on here,,,,,,,a tropical depression
will be forming just east of Barbados on Monday.
A bigger concern... (#10)
Posted by: JimM Location: Kissimmee
Posted On 11:02PM 15-Oct-1999 with id (RPWNSVNRVNQPP*)

than the over warning is what has essentially turned into an under warning for SW Florida. Many people ignore TS warnings, right or wrong. Point is, a hurricane warning probably should have been raised up the east coast. Over warning is something that has to be accepted. Better safe then sorry. An underwarn is totally unacceptable. If people are out in this storm driving around because they weren't aware of how bad the weather could have been is a problem. NHC missed this one bad. I am usually the first one to defend NHC and NOAA in general; but I think a serious look needs to be taken. I would even go so far as to call for the resignation of Director Jerry Jarrell because of an unacceptable failure to properly warn and address public saftey concerns in this storm.
Opps (#11)
Posted by: JimW Location: Kissmmee
Posted On 11:06PM 15-Oct-1999 with id (RPWNSVNRVNQPP*)

Brainwashed into thinking west by NHC. Of course the underwarn was for SouthEast Florida.
irene (#12)
Posted by: troy
Posted On 11:31PM 15-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQURNVRNWS*)

Im not sure if all of this hurricane center bashing is the right thing.
First two seperate friends in the Hollywood area backup any strenghth or reasons for Hurricane warnings. One with a flooded street that flooded into thier home a second withher car blown up and over.
Second winds and here rain here in Brevard have been heavy. Now this may not be heavy inthe sense of a Donna but again the NHC is only calling this a cat 1. It seems that to some that they are ididots no matter what they say will or might happen with the storm. A forecasted NE or ENE movement would have only led poeple to belive that it was all over with and time to "sight see".

As far blowinga forecast, well, we all are(or most of us) are "arm chair meterologist. We dont workfor the NHC or have the educational degrees for taht posistion. Name one storm thsi year or last where the storm tracked axactly as they said it would or didnt appear to move in a different direction than the official track stated for a time. They're damend if they do damned if they dont...
sorry
Get a life (#13)
Posted by: Dick Lesson
Posted On 02:19AM 16-Oct-1999 with id (RPYNQUVNRQUNRR*)

Until each and every one of you obtain your degree from an accredited meteorology school, back the truck up. The NHC is pitiful? Learn to spell it first, then comment. Until you have their job and their stress and until you can realize a 6-digit income based on your GED's then stop cracking on the NHC. NONE of you are professionals and will never be. They always mentioned the possibility of the current track and far too many other weather "so called bureaus" harp on their forecasts as being the absolute are just false. Get a life people. The NHC has been more right than wrong and you just don't realize it yet. If you really want a storm to hit you as advertised, be my guest. Then you can pay for my insurance, all the way around from health to home. Obviously none of you have a clue or a vested interest otherwise you would not be so arrogant. Good night. You people make me ill.
Get a life (#14)
Posted by: Dick Lesson
Posted On 02:20AM 16-Oct-1999 with id (RPYNQUVNRQUNRR*)

Until each and every one of you obtain your degree from an accredited meteorology school, back the truck up. The NHC is pitiful? Learn to spell it first, then comment. Until you have their job and their stress and until you can realize a 6-digit income based on your GED's then stop cracking on the NHC. NONE of you are professionals and will never be. They always mentioned the possibility of the current track and far too many other weather "so called bureaus" harp on their forecasts as being the absolute are just false. Get a life people. The NHC has been more right than wrong and you just don't realize it yet. If you really want a storm to hit you as advertised, be my guest. Then you can pay for my insurance, all the way around from health to home. Obviously none of you have a clue or a vested interest otherwise you would not be so arrogant. Good night. You people make me ill.
Get a life (#15)
Posted by: Dick Lesson
Posted On 02:27AM 16-Oct-1999 with id (RPYNQUVNRQUNRR*)

Until each and every one of you obtain your degree from an accredited meteorology school, back the truck up. The NHC is pitiful? Learn to spell it first, then comment. Until you have their job and their stress and until you can realize a 6-digit income based on your GED's then stop cracking on the NHC. NONE of you are professionals and will never be. They always mentioned the possibility of the current track and far too many other weather "so called bureaus" harp on their forecasts as being the absolute are just false. Get a life people. The NHC has been more right than wrong and you just don't realize it yet. If you really want a storm to hit you as advertised, be my guest. Then you can pay for my insurance, all the way around from health to home. Obviously none of you have a clue or a vested interest otherwise you would not be so arrogant. Good night. You people make me ill.
Ouch (#16)
Posted by: Kev Location: Orlando
Posted On 06:39AM 16-Oct-1999 with id (RTNYUNRTSNRQ*)

Regarding Dick's post.....I couldn't help but notice he submitted it in triplicate. SOP within the NHC? I trust he's feeling better this morning.

Speaking of "better this morning".......looks as if the weather should be improving rapidly as the day progresses.

I have enjoyed this entertaining discussion.

Just one more note for Dick - some of us do have degrees from accredited universities. You may even find that some of us have earned the right to encapsulate our names with "Dr" and "P.H.D.". My advice to you is this, read the definition of presume or presumption. Then, feel free to opine your views regarding arrogance.


Intensifying?" Northbound (#17)
Posted by: STeve H. Location: Palm Bay
Posted On 06:51AM 16-Oct-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNQQ*)

We've got gusts here to 75-80 with some trees down, but I've still got power! sustainede winds are probably 45-55 right now--storm east of vero but may come north right up the coast? Last nights news said "great news, storm will move out to sea--Ha my 10 tear old daughter and I saw the center taking a north move as they were saying this....have they gone brain dead? Bettter get off now
EarthQuake in California in relation to Florida (#18)
Posted by: Mary Location: Lakeland
Posted On 09:36AM 16-Oct-1999 with id (QRNWWNQVRNTW*)

Hi, Does anyone know if the ripple effect of the Earthquake will effect the tracking of this hurricane. Yes, I asked this question on the other page in hopes someone might know that does not read both pages. I am a firm believer in the connectednes of all living and inanimate nature. I do know that earthquakes under the ocean can cause tidal waves. Now I know why I woke straight up out of a dead sleep this morning and was on the web at 2:3o am. I am very tuned in to nature.
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