CFHC Talkback For News Story #124:
Newest Talkback: 10:47 AM 10-01 EDT

Keith Strengthens
04:46 PM EDT - 30 September 2000

Hurricane Keith has developed an Eye and is looking very impressive on the satellite. It has strengthened to a category 2 hurricane with 100MPH winds. It is projected to clip the NE tip of the Yucatan moving North Northwest as a Category 3 storm.

Keith's movement is still almost non-existant. Belize still has Hurricane Warnings up, and the Yucatan as well. Trends still suggest that it will wind up in the Gulf and eventually affect land between Lousiana and the Western coast of Florida. Keith has the potential to be one of the few "event" storms, so all eyes need to be on it anywhere in the Northwest Caribbean and Gulf. To be painfully redundant, it still isn't moving and until a trend is spotted it is all speculation. This may take a few days, so we'll be watching it very very closely.

Joyce is still a very weak tropical storm and may have trouble surviving into the Caribbean. Its weakened state has allowed it to slide westward and into the Caribbean. I'm not sure it will ever restregthen, but it will need to be watched. Isaac's nearing the end of its life as a tropical system, and will soon be an extratropical one.

More thoughts to come on this as time goes by...

Keith in the afternoon!

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.


NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for Isaac., Joyce, or Keith From Michael Bryson.
Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports
Other commentary at: Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center - Stormwarn2000 - SCOTTSVB's Hurricane Update Center - Jim Williams' Hurricane City - Gary Gray's Millennium Weather - Even More on our Links Page
Satellite images at: [Visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [Infrared] (infrared), and [Water Vapor] (water vapor)
Loops: Visible Loop - Infrared Loop - Water Vapor Loop
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
[NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.
Defiant Visible Infrared More...
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)
StormCarib.com has reports from folks in the Caribbean islands themselves and is worth checking out when storms approach the Caribbean.
Ouragans.com Français -- L'information sur des ouragans comprenant beaucoup de liens.
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.
Live Webcam image from Florida Emergency Management's Emergency Operations Center
Florida Emergency Management Activation Page / Situation Updates

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

Show All Comments | Show Previous 19 Comments
Displaying Talkbacks #2 - #22 (of 22 total)
Notes (#2)
Posted by: Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Newport News, VA (Currently)
Posted On 05:24PM 30-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRNUSNVY*)

I went ahead and added New Orleans and Mobile back into the popup lists. It gets big, I know, but it's good to get discussions from different points of view on the storm. Worst case is New Orleans, I think- but if it does affect the US Gulf coast, I tend to think a bit east. Still too much speculation involved.
intensity check (#3)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 05:36PM 30-Sep-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)

okay, cat 2 now. the pressure has fallen 15 mb in about as many hours.. interpolate that out and by noon tomorrow keith is a solid category three (though i dont think it will keep intensifying that fast). if keith comes up faster.. lets not even think of that happening. this isnt a mitch, its more compact, but the sluggish movement is just as troublesome. no movement for 12h? keith will have to begin moving after that or upwelling will start taking the storm back down. the nhc is leaning on the gfdl, it seems. just from looking at the intensity forecast from gfdl, id rather it not verify. it doesnt hack much strength off of keith over the northeast yucatan, neither does the nhc official. we dont need an already powerful hurricane in the lower gulf, moving slowly northward over 28-29C waters. come on keith, do the roxanne and leave us alone.
take it easy folks, be wary gulf coast.

Cold Front? (#4)
Posted by: Cathy Location: Bartow, FL
Posted On 05:41PM 30-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYTNQYV*)

Isn't there a cold front in our future that could influence Keith?
Could the Center Miss the Yucatan? (#5)
Posted by: Mary Location: Lakeland
Posted On 06:29PM 30-Sep-2000 with id (QRNWWNQVRNTW*)

I have just been looking at a realtime loop and unless I am misjudging the skew, it looks to me like the center has begun a Northward drift already albeit close to land. Any comments would be apprecitated.
path (#6)
Posted by: mark Location: new orleans
Posted On 06:38PM 30-Sep-2000 with id (SXNSQNQTYNRPR*)

Last night in the big easy, local forcaster seemed concerned that the low pressure system over s. fl. would move up along the eastern coast.. He mentioned high pressure building over the south east u.s. and didn't see a cold front moving into the area until later in the week. He seemed more concerned by this senario the times in the past.
MOVEMENT (#7)
Posted by: Robert Location: West Palm Beach
Posted On 08:03PM 30-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNRPV*)

I see the same northward drift too. By the way, where is everyone, we have the biggest threat this year for the U.S. and no one is posting.
Where are you??? (#8)
Posted by: Cathy Location: Bartow, FL
Posted On 08:10PM 30-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYTNQYV*)

I don't know where everyone is - I'm watching with baited breath for insight and "informed speculation."
Slight westward component (#9)
Posted by: Bill Location: Miami
Posted On 08:22PM 30-Sep-2000 with id (QTWNWPNXNQPQ*)

There appears, at least on the visual images, to be a very slight westward component, but its definitely drifting mostly north. The latest visual image is kind of eerie... the light is just catching the cloud tops in the easternmost inside edge of the eye.

I thought it was kind of quiet around here too.
Keith (#10)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, Fl
Posted On 08:37PM 30-Sep-2000 with id (VTNRTTNQNUW*)

Winds are up to 105mph....I think we will see are more movement to the North.And it should comein around Cozumel later tomorrow.After that head to the N-NW are then turn I think more N-NE...I guess we will have to wait and see. Joe
I see a drift northward (#11)
Posted by: mike Location: Clearwater Beach
Posted On 08:40PM 30-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVQNRTPNQPV*)

I also see a drift northward. and LAt looks to be at lease 18.2 and not 18. What are your thoughts?
Lat (#12)
Posted by: Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 08:56PM 30-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNSY*)

IMO the best fix I could determine based on lastest sat loop is that Keith is at 18.1N and 87.0W... looks like a slight nudge to the NW but
not very significant

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
WSW drift...... (#13)
Posted by: Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 10:12PM 30-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPUNXR*)

Latest IR loop gives the impression that Keith is driftly ever so slowly just south of due west... Will he go inland over Belize or the Yucatan and do another Mitch and just rain himself out
KEITH HEADING CLOSER TO LAND (#14)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 10:29PM 30-Sep-2000 with id (QRNWWNQXPNRP*)

HELLO ALL,
WELL KEITH HAS NOT TURNED AS OF 10PM AND I AM STARTING TO BELIEVE IT WILL MOVE INLAND BEFORE THE NNW MOTION STARTS. FUNNY THING I AM GOING TO CANCUN NEXT SUNDAY SO I HOPE IT MISSES THE AREA AS WELL AS JOYCE. KEITH IS IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE AND WHERE EVER IT MAKES LANDFALL EXPECT MAJOR DAMAGE TO OCCUR. KEITH IS GOING TO DO WHAT EVER IT WANTS AND FORGET WHAT EVER ANYONE SAYS SO BY MOURNING WE COULD HAVE A LANDFALLING HURRICANE. AFTER TONIGHT I BELIEVE A NNW TURN WILL TAKE PLACE AND A WEAKER KEITH WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY MOURNING. THEN A NORTH TRACK TOWARDS NEW ORLEANS MOBILE AREA IN ABOUT 48-72 HOURS AFTER AS A CAT#3 STORM. THIS IS MY FIRST PREDICATION OF LANDFALL FOR THE U.S. AND ITS A WEAK ONE BUT ITS A GUESS..
Mark...... (#15)
Posted by: Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 10:34PM 30-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPUNXR*)

Since I live in Biloxi I sure hope you are wrong. This time of the year you usually expect a storm in the Gulf to get shunted off to Florida. Not to wish the good folks in Florida bad weather, but sure hope we get a front in the gulf to drive this thing away from us... Maybe it'll just rain itself out in Belize or Mexico..
More about Keith (#16)
Posted by: Alex K
Posted On 10:57PM 30-Sep-2000 with id (VSNTRNQTQNRQW*)

I can't believe it. Keith is now a major hurricane. But, when will it take the forcasted turn north? Joyce might be trying to make a feeble comeback; its winds are up to 45
Keith (#17)
Posted by: R.A.D (http://flhurricane.com/rad) Location: St Petersburg FL
Posted On 12:03AM 01-Oct-2000 with id (RTNRXNRNSY*)

WOW , this is an imnpressive storm little movement is scary ! I beleive it will be a gulf "wobbler" . must keep an "EYE" on this one
Keith (#18)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, Fl
Posted On 12:39AM 01-Oct-2000 with id (RQVNSNQXRNRPR*)

Should make a turn tomorrow......Joe
information (#19)
Posted by: Saú Edgardo De La O Reyes
Posted On 12:55AM 01-Oct-2000 with id (RPWNQRTNRSXNSQ*)

Where look information of model GFDL for track storm and hurricane, and new model for tracking
RECON ON KEITH (#20)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 04:43AM 01-Oct-2000 with id (QRNWWNQXPNQPR*)

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 01/0708Z
B. 17 DEG 56 MIN N
87 DEG 18 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2596 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 219 DEG 116 KT
G. 121 DEG 016 NM
H. 942 MB
I. 8 C/ 3073 M
J. 24 C/ 3065 M
K. 5 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C20
N. 12345/7
O. .1/6 NM
P. AF966 0515A KEITH OB 14
MAX FL WIND 119 KT N QUAD 0551Z.
EXCELLENT RADAR PRESENTATION

HELLO ALL,
IF THIS IS TRUE A DUE EAST DRIFT INTERESTING!!!!

keith wow (#21)
Posted by: mark
Posted On 05:13AM 01-Oct-2000 with id (RPYNRVNQSTNTY*)

is this real or what like gilbert. 942 mb. was 955 at 2am, think it will start n, move soon into yucatan channel. just think how strong this could get in gulf, Camille!!!!
Where's he going (#22)
Posted by: Don Location: Miami
Posted On 06:47AM 01-Oct-2000 with id (QYYNRRWNQQVNWW*)

Is there evidence of a due east drift?
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