CFHC Talkback For News Story #125:
Newest Talkback: 08:31 PM 10-01 EDT

Category 4 Hurricane Keith Still Moving Little
07:10 AM EDT - 01 October 2000

Keith is an amazing looking system. The folks along the Yucuatan's eastern coast are getting pounded right now. Keith is just sitting and spinning in very warm waters. It's still projected to head north, over land for a bit in the Yucatan and then into the central Gulf. What else can I say besides watch the system closely. Its slow movement prevents any serious future track talk, so the Gulf needs to watch out. I do expect it to weaken a bit over land (depends on how long it stays over land too), but not enough to get it below hurricane status.

Joyce is barely holding together and moving into the Caribbean, it may strengthen slightly once in the East Caribbean waters, but for now I'll minimize its importance.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.


NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for Isaac., Joyce, or Keith From Michael Bryson.
Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports
Other commentary at: Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center - Stormwarn2000 - SCOTTSVB's Hurricane Update Center - Jim Williams' Hurricane City - Gary Gray's Millennium Weather - Even More on our Links Page
Satellite images at: [Visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [Infrared] (infrared), and [Water Vapor] (water vapor)
Loops: Visible Loop - Infrared Loop - Water Vapor Loop
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
[NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.
Defiant Visible Infrared More...
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)
StormCarib.com has reports from folks in the Caribbean islands themselves and is worth checking out when storms approach the Caribbean.
Ouragans.com Français -- L'information sur des ouragans comprenant beaucoup de liens.
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.
Live Webcam image from Florida Emergency Management's Emergency Operations Center
Florida Emergency Management Activation Page / Situation Updates

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #32 (of 32 total)
Amazing loop (#1)
Posted by: David (http://†)
Posted On 08:19AM 01-Oct-2000 with id (VUNSSNQWNQUT*)

http://sgihss3f.wwb.noaa.gov/data4/images/TROPICAL/float/float-ir4-loop.html


WOW, this storm looks awesome. Well developed eye, good out flow.
The big questions, is where is it going? My guess is that Florida Coast will be effected by the storm. This next week, there will be alot of folks holding there breath.

Keith (#2)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, Fl
Posted On 10:55AM 01-Oct-2000 with id (VTNRTTNQNQQU*)

I still think this storm will head north today very slowly and after that we should start to see more of a turn to the NE.But even if Florida doesn't get impacted by this storm someone will.And let me tell you this it will be huge.The thinking is a least a CAT 4. Joe
Keith is annoying (#3)
Posted by: Alex K
Posted On 10:59AM 01-Oct-2000 with id (VSNTRNQTQNRTP*)

If Keith does make the predicted turn to the north soon, than it would weaken less over the Yucatan, because its center would be very close to water.
Keith (#4)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 11:00AM 01-Oct-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNQWW*)

This storm is playing around down there...it looks like it wants to go west, but then moves a tiny bit northward......almost looks as though it has done a cyclonic loop again today. It has been kissing the coast of the Yucatan now for almost 24 hours, and the NHC (according to Steve Lyons) is saying a n/to nw track. It will be interesting to see what actually happens down the road.

Colleen
What is suppose to send it north? (#5)
Posted by: mike Location: Clearwater Beach
Posted On 11:02AM 01-Oct-2000 with id (RTNQVQNRTPNQPV*)

Does anybody have an idea of what is suppose to send this system north? I'm not real sure that is going to happen. If it keeps drifting West and stays over land for 48 hours, I see it being just about dead. And even if if it is pulled norths is it suppose to pick up speed.
very annoying (#6)
Posted by: cd
Posted On 11:02AM 01-Oct-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYVNST*)

i understand that the environment in the gulf is not very favorable at all. any thoughts where this will go. anyone
Gulf may become more favorable (#7)
Posted by: mike Location: Clearwater Beach
Posted On 11:05AM 01-Oct-2000 with id (RTNQVQNRTPNQPV*)

I hear this system has created it's own high pressure system. Is this true? I think I also heard that when the front drops in around Wed. that it will make it more favorable for development. Is that true?
Keith (#8)
Posted by: Kevin
Posted On 11:07AM 01-Oct-2000 with id (RTNRWNRQYNQWV*)

The movement for the past six hours has clearly been to the WSW. This does not appear to be a "wobble" or "loop". Even if there were to be a turn toward the NW or N there is a lot of land between Keith's current position and the GOM, where conditions are not favorable for intensification. We can only hope that Keith continues on his current track and rains himself out over the Yucatan.
Keith the trickster (#9)
Posted by: Alex K
Posted On 11:10AM 01-Oct-2000 with id (VSNTRNQTQNRTP*)

Does it look to anyone that Keith just made a tiny drift to the east. the NHC forecast is strange. it takes it to a 65 mph ts inland, but then up to 90 mph, while still inland.
Conditions on the Yucatan? (#10)
Posted by: Cathy Location: Bartow, FL
Posted On 11:18AM 01-Oct-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPQNRPV*)

I am so used to having Jim Cantore standing in the middle of these things. No live reports on this one though. What is the wind and weather like right now? How populated? Crops? Looks like a horrible situation.
Agree..... (#11)
Posted by: Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 11:19AM 01-Oct-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPUNQT*)

If Keith continues to move at a snails pace over the Yucatan it will be devistating to the storm. Conditions at the present time and for the next several days in the central and northern GOM are NOT conducive to rapid regeneration for this system even if it does survive.

Of course all of this is subject to change (and probably will...hehe) and nothing is cast in concrete, but this thing is starting to look and act more and more like Mitch.... hopefully it may be a non event for the states, if we get lucky, but regardless I just can't see this thing getting back to a Cat 4 or even 3 in the GOM if it does survive... IMO... Nevertheless, there will be a plethora of predications and assessments in the next two days and it will be fun to read them.... stay busy gang! GREAT SITE
????????????? (#12)
Posted by: cd
Posted On 11:23AM 01-Oct-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYVNST*)

i think it is continuing to make that cyclonic loop. i'm still not convinced on that west movement...it's not even a movement...imo.
any thoughts?
Loop cd? (#13)
Posted by: Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 11:30AM 01-Oct-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPUNQT*)

My definition of a loop is a system that crosses over its previous path... Like Betsy did off the Florida coast in 65 or Elena in 85 in the GOM... This storm is basically moving very little so it can't really cross over it path in such a dramatic fashion per se. However, if your definition of a loop is something that is basically spinning in the same spot then I guess it would be a type of cyclonic loop....
high pressure (#14)
Posted by: paul Location: southeast texas
Posted On 11:31AM 01-Oct-2000 with id (RPWNQYQNQSNQPQ*)

High pressure is forecast to build westward from florida. Increasing the southerly flow into central LA. This is supposed to be what moves the storm. I believe it is not out of the question for the storm to go for enouph west as the LA/TX border. What are your thoughts. From the maps I See the front is not supposed to make it here till Thurs/Fri?
Keith (#15)
Posted by: Bruce Location: Palm Bay Florida
Posted On 11:50AM 01-Oct-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNUQ*)

I have been watching the loops since about 4am today, and it looks like Keith is moving more to the south now. The homes are not structured to good in that area, and I feel when this is all over we are going to hear about many who have lost their lives to this storm. I just hope we dont lose as many as we did with Mitch. This storm will be a major news event in the days to come. Has anyone heard of any reports from out of this area yet. Are their any Ham radio operators out their that can give us a report?
Keith (#16)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, Fl
Posted On 11:58AM 01-Oct-2000 with id (RQVNSNQXRNQXX*)

I just don't know where this will go.My guess is it should start moving NW TO N in the next 24hrs.Its going to be a long few days.Just have to wait and see. Joe
Keith drifting SSW .... (#17)
Posted by: Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 12:05PM 01-Oct-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPUNQT*)

Looking at the latest IR sat loop Keith is definitely drifting SSW or SW....But for how long will be the big question... Maybe he will die a slow and painful death in the Yucatan...Boy he's gotta be pounding the area... I wonder what this lastest movement anomoly will do to all the modeling programs
Damage (#18)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 12:05PM 01-Oct-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNRPT*)

Bruce...I think it is located in a place where there is the 2nd largest reef besides Australia...lots of tourists there. I am praying for these people, as they need it...and regardless of where it ends up, a lot of damage has already been done, no doubt in my mind about that...I have seen rainfall estimates of 5ft per day with this thing....
land??? (#19)
Posted by: cd
Posted On 12:15PM 01-Oct-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNWQ*)

the eyewall is right on the edge of landfall. i'm not sure this thing will make landfall any time soon...especially with this recent southward movement...for now
Keith (#20)
Posted by: Bruce Location: Palm Bay Florida
Posted On 12:26PM 01-Oct-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNUQ*)

Those people in that area must think the world has come to an end.
Eye (#21)
Posted by: Gary Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 01:35PM 01-Oct-2000 with id (RTNQVTNVNRTV*)

Seems like the eye is filling. Don't know if it;s because the sun is over it or land is taking it's toll.
South Flroida Cone Of Thought (#22)
Posted by: Mike Anderson (http://www.angelfire.com/fl4/eastcoasttropicalwea/ectwp.htm) Location: Miami Florida
Posted On 01:41PM 01-Oct-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNWQ*)

While massive Hurricane Keith gets the spotlight today there is another performer waiting at stage right. Tropical storm Joyce is becoming better organized as she heads to the wnw. Joyce should reach Hurricane status as she heads to a position just south of Jamaica in 72 H. There is a rather strong trough forecasted to head down on Thursday, Joyce could be scooped to the North in a fashion pretty much the same way hurricane Irene was last season. since Joyce would be a stronger system than Irene was she would serve as a bigger potential for Cuba and South Florida. So as you all view the loops of Keith today try paying some attention to Joyce as she has all the potential to become a visitor in the Sunshine State later in the week.
Communication from Ambergrin Caye and Caye Caulker (#23)
Posted by: Gary Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 01:53PM 01-Oct-2000 with id (RTNQVTNVNRTV*)

http://www.lovefm.com/910.ram
According to messages being sent to a communication board they we have a link to below, the islands of Ambergrin Caye and Caye Caulker are being devestated by the storm. There has been no communication from the people who were using battery-powered laptops since 12:30 p.m. Click here http://www.lovefm.com/910.ram to listen to a brief interview with the director of emergency services on the island in the midst of the hurricane's impact
That Is So Sad (#24)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 02:13PM 01-Oct-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNQXW*)

God Bless them all....I am praying for them all.
A SLOW MOTION ANDREW (#25)
Posted by: LONNY Location: HOLLYWOOD,FL
Posted On 02:58PM 01-Oct-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYTNRPY*)

I went thru Andrew in 92.I can't conceive what they are going through.The eye wall sitting off the coast can only cause devastation.I hope Keith falls apart. All you can do is pray for them.
Eastward Component (#26)
Posted by: Ed Dunham Location: Melbourne, FL
Posted On 03:38PM 01-Oct-2000 with id (VSNQVRNRRVNSP*)

Keith appears to be in the process of making a very tight cyclonic loop and seems to be drifting southeastward a few miles away from the coast. A possible scenario is that it will never make landfall on the Yucatan. It could complete the loop and head north or north northeast through the Yucatan Channel and into the southeast Gulf. The developing cloud structure just to the east of the center suggests a shift in its movement from a westward component to an eastward component. Western Cuba and Florida may have an unwanted visitor toward the end of this week.
Cheers,
ED
ED I Hope You are Wrong (#27)
Posted by: Mary Location: Lakeland
Posted On 03:53PM 01-Oct-2000 with id (QRNWWNQVRNRTU*)

Ed I have seen your forecasts and know of your good reputation. I sure hope that you are wrong on this call. But, I have been watching this storm since 3 :00 AM this morning and I am beginning to wonder myself what this thing is up to. It could have been inland as early as 6:00 am this morning, but it to this minute has not made a complete landfall, thus all the ingredients to exist continue to be supplied.
Eastward component... not yet (#28)
Posted by: Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 03:59PM 01-Oct-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPUNRV*)

I've looked at every sat loop I could find in the past 30 minutes and I don't see any eastward component to Keith.... if anything it looks like it has jogged a little more to the west... not to say it won't go east cause who knows what this guy is going to do... impact with land is causing pressure to rise to 950 mb
Keith and Joyce (#29)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 04:07PM 01-Oct-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPVNQYV*)

Maybe not a match made in heaven for sure, more like hell. I don't know about Keith, but as Ed D. stated, could end up doing what the NHC said or alluded to last night, as well as a few other forecasters. Joyce is also a concern, as she is getting herself together (albeit slowly) but if she survives (and I think she will) is sure to be a threat, since conditions should be improving for her to develop and a WNW and eventual NW track seem inevitable. All of this is going to come down during this week, so keep an eye to the tropics. Stay tuned, and say a prayer for the folks in the Yucatan and Belize, as well as Honduras and Nicaraqua...they, for some reason get the brunt of these catastrophic storms. Why is it that people who can least handle a disaster seem always to get one
I Don't Know Steve (#30)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:14PM 01-Oct-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNRPR*)

Maybe because they have their faith in God, as much as our own government won't allow it in public, they are very religious. Especially in Mexico. I know I am rambling, but, I think God plays a role in all of this, good or bad. He is not testing their faith, and I believe (although I know they are suffering there) that their prayers is what has kept the wrath of this hurricane off the coast. This is in no means a meteorogocial point of view, only my own belief in God. Sorry. At this point, to be honest, I have no other ideas.
Eastward.....No (#31)
Posted by: Kevin
Posted On 04:15PM 01-Oct-2000 with id (RTNRWNRQYNQWV*)

Keith has continued to show a WSW motion for the past 10 hours. The last few frames in the loop indicate more of a stationary position. I see no indication of an eastward component at this time.
However, the storm has remained off-shore so, anything could happen.

Keep alert and don't forget we still have Joyce out to our SE.
movement.... little if none at all (#32)
Posted by: Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 04:31PM 01-Oct-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPUNRV*)

Kevin, I agree, Keith has shown very little movement during the past hour from the loops I have been reviewing... so far the people in Mexico has received only the west half of this storm, then again, no one wants any side of a Cat 4 storm... and the east side is always worst than the west... hopefully it will weaken even more before (or if) it goes inland...
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