CFHC Talkback For News Story #125:
Newest Talkback: 03:11 PM 10-19 EDT

Tropical Storm Jose Forms. Irene Stronger than Ever..
09:43 AM EDT - 18 October 1999

Jose has formed as it is moving west toward the Caribbean islands. Soe models take it morth north toward the Leeward islands, while others keep it moving more toward the west. The best, perhaps, would be a sharp north turn and miss all the islands?

Irene never made landfall in North Carolina, and now it's stronger than it ever has been. A Category 2 storm, with conservatively 105MPH windspeed. Moving away from us, but it is somewhat interesting that its still going strong out there.



For more information on Irene and Jose,

Caribbean Hurricane Page -- Personal Reports and Updates from the Caribbean Islands
NRL Monterey Tracking Site (Navy) -- Very nice forecast track graphics.
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
GFDL Model & Plot for Irene and for BAMB,BAMM, LBAR & A90E Models of Irene
GFDL Model & Plot for Jose and for BAMB,BAMM, LBAR & A90E Models of Jose
Jose Multiple Model Forecast Composite from Michael Bryson
and for Irene
Weather Channel Caribbean Sat Image
Intellicast Caribbean IR Loop
Intellicast Atlantic IR Loop

More Sat images: Storm Centered imagery.

[N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.


- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #9 (of 30 total)
Jose,,,,,,,,,and JJ whoever you are (#1)
Posted by: scottsvb
Posted On 12:36PM 18-Oct-1999 with id (VSNRSNQXUNWR*)

First comment first for JJ.

I am working on my Meteorology degree and
going to graduate in a year. I have good
grades and am in contact with many at the
NHC. I don't hate the NHC,,,I just feel they
need to use more than the models in their
predictions. Also to note with the grammer of
mine and others,,,,,,I'm sure like other people
on here have limited time to write,,,,so I just
quickly post my messages and don't really look
up at what I'm spelling. Sorry about that,,at
least I give people my input,,and I don't bash
on other peoples spellings,cause they are also
probably in a limited time frame.

Well Folks Jose is slowly forming and should
be a hurricane by later in the day on Tuesday.

The track on him will be a west-northwest
direction just south of Barbados and south of
Martiniqe. I see him around 70pmh when entering
the islands tomorrow afternoon. He should continue
that general direction into Weds morning and be
just south along the Haiti-Dom Rep border. Winds
will be around 90mph,,,,,maybe more. After that
its hard to say exactly.......but a west course
through the Carribean and into central america
is highly unlikly,,,,infact if he enters the
islands more north of Barbados and goes through
Puerto Rico,,,,,he most likly will just pull out
to sea...... will write more on Tuesday.scottsvb
Jose (#2)
Posted by: scottsvb
Posted On 01:00PM 18-Oct-1999 with id (VSNRSNQXUNWR*)

For a quick comment here,,,Jose appears to
be reforming a center farther to its north.
If this does happen than he most likly will
only be a carribean factor,,,,,not U.S.

Also a couple new models are in showing a
big turn to the north. Lets see what happens
by morning. scottsvb
Acknowledged (#3)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 01:56PM 18-Oct-1999 with id (QTQNRPRNRTXNUW*)

Wonderful, I am glad that you can admit that. I just suggest that you might refrain from identifying yourself as being with the NHC, especially given your logistics situation. We’ll look forward to your presence there after the 10 year minimum experience requirement is met to qualify for employment. I’m not knocking you personally Scott, as your posts suggest that you possess quite a bit of knowledge on this matter. You have done your homework and I wish you continued success in all future endeavors. I mean that sincerely. I would only hate for an unfortunate situation to arise where as someone who might visit this board and take your word as that of a professional. If an incident were to ensue and they pointed at your forecast as being that of a professional, they can hold you liable. Believe me, I have seen this before, and not just germane to the weather arena. It is very ugly and I have seen charges from public endangerment, gross misconduct, deception and something that is akin to mail fraud (Internet fraud).

Call me a vigilant watch dog, but actually looking out for yours, and others, well being. Again, Scott, I am glad that we could get that out in the open and hope that you will continue to inform and enlighten as you have before. You will be a credit to your field. On that note, I’ll disappear back into the shadows…

Forecasts (#4)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 02:47PM 18-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNQWV*)

At the top of this page it states that this is not an official weather outlet. If anyone takes it officially, that's their own problem.
JJ (#5)
Posted by: scottsvb
Posted On 02:58PM 18-Oct-1999 with id (VSNRSNQXXNQPX*)

I NEVER SAID I WAS WITH THE NHC,,,,GET THE
FACTS STRAIGHT WHEN YOU READ MY COMMENTS JJ.

Other than that,,,,Jose should move out to sea
and possibly never even hit Puerto Rico,,that
is to be seen though.... scottsvb
Facts presented (#6)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 04:20PM 18-Oct-1999 with id (QTQNRPRNRTXNUW*)

Are you sure about that? You never said that? Let’s take a bit of a stroll down memory lane here, shall we? Didn’t a bring this up earlier? “Irene has formed and I will be posting what will happen to this system like others,,,,,you all know I forcast these sytems for me its easy,,,,yeah I will be in the Hurricane Center soon also.” (11:01 AM Oct 13) Okay, what did that mean? I wish I could dig back a bit further in the archives here, but fortunately I can’t at this time or I would have some real beauties to show. Well, let’s go to another forum then. How about this one, “Mike Anderson,,,,,,,hey its scottsvb,,,huricane forcaster,,,,well,, I know you would like to see a major hurricane come at Florida,,,but your call on the depression in the atlantic becoming a major hurricane is so funny.” (ECTWC 4:25 PM Oct 6) Nice title, who gave you that one? How about this hum-dinger? “me?? I have a degree in meteorolgy,,,and like many know,,my perdictions on past sytems have been acurate,,,so my point is that I'm real,,” (ECTWC 1:43 AM Oct 9)

I hope you get the point. I have more fodder should you choose to continue on this course. I was paying you a compliment, you know, but you had to ruin that for yourself. I guess you need to take a course in cynicism as well. Wow. I can’t believe you. If you would have only been truthful in the beginning…

Jose (#7)
Posted by: Ronn Raszetnik, Jr. Location: Largo, Florida
Posted On 04:34PM 18-Oct-1999 with id (RPWNVYNTSNTP*)

Tropical Storm Jose continues to show signs of rapid intensification and I believe that he will attain hurricane status rather shortly. The latest visible satellite imagery indicates a pristine structure with impressive inflow bands and convective activity atop the center of circulation. Conditions appear conducive for continual development over the next few days and Jose will likely attain Category 2 strength. Thereafter, Jose will encounter the effects of a strong trough of low pressure that will move off the eastern seaboard of the U.S. on Thursday. This entity will act to both negate further strengthening and steer the storm seabound after affecting portions of the Greater Antilles--most likely Puerto Rico.

God Bless You,
Ronn Raszetnik, Jr.
fighting (#8)
Posted by: alan byrd
Posted On 04:37PM 18-Oct-1999 with id (RPVNRVNRTYNSR*)

can't we all just get along??
Whats with mike (#9)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 04:58PM 18-Oct-1999 with id (QYYNRRWNRPNRSP*)

hi i havent posted in some time i never can get to this site until i just figured out how a little while ago. I have been hearing some
chritisam about Mike Anderson.

Could someone bring me up to date about what has been goeing on reasently.

Thank You.
The Weather Police (#10)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 05:03PM 18-Oct-1999 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNUT*)

Robert --- as far as what's going on? There's a guy who has for now called himself "JJ" who continues to come in here and stir up trouble. The best way to handle him? IGNORE HIM. He is the self-appointed Weather Police. To JJ: get a life.
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