CFHC Talkback For News Story #126:
Newest Talkback: 03:06 PM 10-21 EDT

Jose
05:03 AM EDT - 19 October 1999

Irene is saying goodbye, as Jose is starting to heat up. At nearly Hurricane Status now, Jose is threatining the Leeward Islands in the Caribbean. Watches are up for these areas, and the projected track takes Jose toward the Northwest, scraping, or even crossing some of the islands.

Mainland U.S. Impact from Jose appears to be very unlikely.



For more information on Jose,

Caribbean Hurricane Page -- Personal Reports and Updates from the Caribbean Islands
NRL Monterey Tracking Site (Navy) -- Very nice forecast track graphics.
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
GFDL Model & Plot for Jose and for BAMB,BAMM, LBAR & A90E Models of Jose
Jose Multiple Model Forecast Composite from Michael Bryson

Weather Channel Caribbean Sat Image
Intellicast Caribbean IR Loop
Intellicast Atlantic IR Loop

More Sat images: Storm Centered imagery.

[N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.


- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #3 (of 24 total)
Jose, K, L? (#1)
Posted by: Bill
Posted On 11:23AM 19-Oct-1999 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNUQ*)

Here comes Jose, but is expected to be turned N away from US/Fl? have we heard this before? It is probable, but stay tuned. Hurricane watches now in USVI and PR.

The low behind J is trying to develop, is about 10 N...the question is will Jose blow it apart with its outflow, or will it persist. It is flaring this morning and there is a fledgling surface circulation.

Finally, what is happening in the Bay of Campeche?..impressive flaring there at the end of a front..a typical October setup. The fly in the ointment is the upper low in the central Caribbean moving WNW. However, if it fades or moves move to N (or S) it may allow development. Interestingly, if it goes more N, or recurves, it may move/pull the development in the Campeche area to move N and NE, threatening Fl.

As all eyes are to the se, are we about to be 'bushwhacked' from the Gulf?

Thoughts?
Gulf of Mexico (#2)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland
Posted On 01:07PM 19-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNUW*)

I was noticing the same thing in the Gulf this morning. Looks pretty impressive to me, but, at this time our local forecasters and TWC are pretty much writing that off...as they are Jose as far as affecting the US mainland. Guess we will just have to keep our eye on it though.
Jose,,,Gulf... (#3)
Posted by: scottsvb
Posted On 02:10PM 19-Oct-1999 with id (VSNRSNQXUNSR*)

The area in the southern gulf should not develop
like Bill has said mainly due to the upper low
heading in its direction....surface presures are
very high there,,and all models don't see anything


Anyways with Jose,,,the models keep on pushing
him slightly more westward everytime before the
big turn....was at 68w then 70w now 72w.

We can't rely on the models on the turn,,but in
where around it will be and the strength.

If Jose gets shared in the Carribean,,,he might
not get more than a cat1 and could go under
Puerto Rico,,and if that happens he might want
to go west-northwest longer toward Haiti,,a bigger
threat to the Bahamas.
But if he stays at a strengthening faze,he might
just go east of Puerto Rico,,then defidently only
scare maybe at worst the Bahamas,,,but that's
at the farthest west. This scenerio is the better
of the 2,,but lets watch him into the morning on
Weds to see which path he will take and to see if
the models take him to 74w next. scottsvb
jose (#4)
Posted by: jim Location: lauderdale fl
Posted On 03:29PM 19-Oct-1999 with id (RQVNWWNRQWNQPX*)

Sat pics & vapor loop continue to show increased sheer over jose. West quad lookin pretty ragged and sheer appears to be significant and increasing as day goes on. Outflow was much better last night and earlier today! Upper low in cntrl carib not moving quick enough and my bet it will likely prevent intensification much further in the near term. Contrary to 2pm Adv. storm continues to move to WNW as I am unable to note increase in Northerly trend...... East coast trough fcst 72-96hrs + will make a visit to FL or E cst near impossible. Even if jose stays further south below haiti, jose will never make it past this trough nor will it be able to sneak by it. My bet, minimal hurricane in puerto rico / haiti then rapid turn to north and complete miss for usa. circulation behind jose near 10 N small and unable to compete with jose circulation despite the convection near center - its a bust! Finally---some one explain to me why there seems to be a persistent total unequivical faith in the model forcast, when current observation frequently provides clear evidence that a model forcast just ain't gonna be correct. HHHow can such smart individuals at the hurricane center ignore what is happening so often befor there eyes and continue to enforce a computers guidance. Such is the case when Irene traveled from the extreme western tip of cuba to offshore palm beach! How can one get to palm beach from western cuba by heading N for a day and a half and then turning north northeast. Guess what ? You can't!
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