CFHC Talkback For News Story #128:
Newest Talkback: 05:48 AM 10-03 EDT

Interesting Developments
04:26 PM EDT - 02 October 2000

Keith is still weakening near the coast, and still not moving. Joyce dissipated, but may regenerate. (50/50 chance) The folks in Belize have received a huge amount of rain and wind the last few days.

An area south of Cuba along with a cold front is causing a great deal of rain in South Florida. There is a chance that something minimal could form south of Cuba. That along with Keith and Ex-Joyce will make it somewhat interesting, but nothing in the extreme danger category (Like Keith was a few days ago)looks likely.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.


NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for Isaac., Joyce, or Keith From Michael Bryson.
Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports
Other commentary at: Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center - Stormwarn2000 - SCOTTSVB's Hurricane Update Center - Jim Williams' Hurricane City - Gary Gray's Millennium Weather - Even More on our Links Page
Satellite images at: [Visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [Infrared] (infrared), and [Water Vapor] (water vapor)
Loops: Visible Loop - Infrared Loop - Water Vapor Loop
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
[NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.
Defiant Visible Infrared More...
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)
StormCarib.com has reports from folks in the Caribbean islands themselves and is worth checking out when storms approach the Caribbean.
Ouragans.com Français -- L'information sur des ouragans comprenant beaucoup de liens.
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.
Live Webcam image from Florida Emergency Management's Emergency Operations Center
Florida Emergency Management Activation Page / Situation Updates

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #12 (of 12 total)
TESTS ON 99L (#1)
Posted by: Gary Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 05:50PM 02-Oct-2000 with id (RTNQVTNVNRTV*)


DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.



.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....



NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL STORM TEST (AL9900) ON 20001002 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...

001002 1800 001003 0600 001003 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 25.0N 80.0W 27.4N 79.4W 29.4N 78.2W

BAMM 25.0N 80.0W 27.0N 81.1W 29.1N 82.7W

A90E 25.0N 80.0W 25.9N 81.9W 27.3N 83.2W

LBAR 25.0N 80.0W 26.5N 80.8W 28.1N 81.4W

SHIP 35KTS 40KTS 45KTS



...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...

001004 0600 001004 1800 001005 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 30.7N 75.7W 30.4N 72.1W 27.9N 69.1W

BAMM 31.6N 84.1W 34.3N 84.1W 39.5N 76.5W

A90E 29.5N 83.3W 31.6N 81.4W 34.5N 70.8W

LBAR 30.0N 81.3W 32.1N 79.7W 33.9N 72.1W

SHIP 50KTS 53KTS 61KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LAT0 = 25.0N LON0 = 80.0W DIR0 = 290DEG SPD0 = 12KT

LATM12 = 24.3N LONM12 = 77.6W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 = 13KT

LATM24 = 23.6N LONM24 = 75.2W

WND0 = 35KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 30KT

CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 50NM



.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....


TEST MESSAGE (#2)
Posted by: Richie Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Posted On 06:02PM 02-Oct-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNVT*)

The test message of 25 N 80 W is right over Miami. Any comments here
Models (#3)
Posted by: Jim F. (http://flhurricane.com/jfaul/) Location: Ft. Lauderdale
Posted On 06:18PM 02-Oct-2000 with id (RPXNVQNQQSNVY*)

No wonder we can't trust the models..they don't initialize them correctly!!
Coordinates (#4)
Posted by: Ed Dunham Location: Melbourne, FL
Posted On 07:17PM 02-Oct-2000 with id (VSNQVRNRRVNWW*)

Actually, 25N 80W is east southeast of Key Largo. I think Miami is about 25.7N - although I'm not sure that I would have initialized the system quite that far north - perhaps its a worse-case scenario.
Cheers,
ED
Cuba? (#5)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 07:46PM 02-Oct-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYUNQWV*)

Maybe this is the test model for the area of disturbed weather we have been looking at all day.
let me rephrase that... (#6)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 08:37PM 02-Oct-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)

earlier i was calling everything dead by tomorrow.. umm... take a look at this loop.
http://www.intellicast.com/LocalWeather/World/UnitedStates/Southeast/Florida/KeyWest/BaseReflectivityLoop/
thats what i was looking for all day and not seeing.. if that keeps up.. well.. florida may get more than just a lot of rain. key west is reporting a 1011 mb pressure last i checked, trending downward. havana is at 1009. the gulf isnt quite primed for anything to really get going, i dont think.. with the shear and very dry air.. but this could be on its way to a depression.
keith has drifted north this evening, could be the start of that long awaited northward track.. or not. still a hurricane, im surprised. keith has to have upwelled the hell out of the waters off belize by now. joyce is just a sharp wave now, needs to put on the brakes to ever get going again. exiting the 'hurricane graveyard', maybe the sw caribbean will be more hospitable.
but as for what looks like a low trying to swirl up near the keys.. what do yall think? 99L?
have a good one, folks.
NEW LOW NEAR CUBA ? (#7)
Posted by: Richie Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Posted On 08:50PM 02-Oct-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPQNQXT*)

Looks to me that the low is just coming off the N.W. Cuban coast near Havana. Let's see what happens as this system gets over water. Look at this radar using the loop feature.
http://www.intellicast.com/LocalWeather/World/UnitedStates/Southeast/Florida/KeyWest/Radar/

Intresting??? (#8)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, Fl
Posted On 08:50PM 02-Oct-2000 with id (VTNRTTNQNQRX*)

There does appear to be some very good rotation down there in the Keys.You are right about that Hank.I do think we may have a Depression form down there tomorrow.We will have to watch it closely.Even if there wasn't a Depression down there tomorrow, Central and South Florida will get some heavy rains.Thanks for the info Hank.... Joe
trouble in the Tropics? (#9)
Posted by: mike Location: Clearwater Beach
Posted On 09:55PM 02-Oct-2000 with id (RTNQVQNRTPNQPX*)

Just heard local newscaster say trouble in the tropics could be brewing and to stick around for 11 news. Just looked at NASA's interactive site on a 2 or 3 hour loop and it sure does look like we could have a depression soon. Stay tuned. We need to pay close attention to this on the West Coast of Florida especially as keep as Keith went from T.S. to Cat 4.
FOR ANYONE INTERESTED (#10)
Posted by: peanuts Location: Hollywood, FL
Posted On 10:26PM 02-Oct-2000 with id (VSNSPNRPPNQPS*)

The caribean hurricane page has gotten some reports from Belize and Cancun
http://stormcarib.com scroll down to weather discussions and local reports
persistence (#11)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 01:13AM 03-Oct-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)

that nexrad loop i posted earlier.. the loop is now showing a pretty clear spiral about 100 mi sw of key west. key west has a 1012 pressure now (up just a tad) with a se wind at 14mph. if this low keeps its current organization, when recon reaches it tomorrow they should find a depression. convection seems to have waned a tad, so it may be on a downtrend.. but this system looks pretty good. it isnt very often that you get to see a tropical cyclone form under radar coverage.. should be interesting to follow if it does.
nite everybody.
Low pressure system in gulf (#12)
Posted by: keith Location: Bonita Springs, Fla.
Posted On 01:48AM 03-Oct-2000 with id (VTNRQPNRTQNQPQ*)

I've seen it for myself, hankfrank, and it looks pretty impressive to me.I wouldn't be surprised if it developes further. where I live, flood watches have been posted. We'll see what tomorrow holds. By the way, I've been downgraded to a tropical storm as I've been busy typing this comment! I've enjoyed reading everyones input and I'll see you all again soon. Goodnite.
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