CFHC Talkback For News Story #148:
Newest Talkback: 10:51 PM 12-22 EDT

Last Day of 2000 Hurricane Season
09:10 AM EST - 30 November 2000

November 30th, the last day of the 2000 Hurricane Season is here. And, strangely enough, there is an area in the Western Caribbean that bears watching. Although it is unlikely anything will form, it does look pretty good for this time of year and will have to be watched for development.

This year has been a very active year, but with a lot of close calls and nothing extremely destructive. Debby being the most potentially threatening of them all for the US. A better run down of systems will come in the next few days.

Thanks for all the support this year. We intend to be back next year with even more information. The site will run throughout the year with minor and sporadic updates in the off season.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.


NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports
Other commentary at: Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center - Stormwarn2000 - SCOTTSVB's Hurricane Update Center - Jim Williams' Hurricane City - Gary Gray's Millennium Weather - Even More on our Links Page
Satellite images at: [Visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [Infrared] (infrared), and [Water Vapor] (water vapor)
Loops: Visible Loop - Infrared Loop - Water Vapor Loop
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
[NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.
Defiant Visible Infrared More...
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]


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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #13 (of 13 total)

well ? (#1)
Posted by: Gary (
http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 01:51PM 30-Nov-2000 with id (RPYNTNTPNUR*)


WTNT80 EGRR 301755



MET. OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND NORTH ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 30.11.2000



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+48 : 18.0N 84.1W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 02.12.2000 18.0N 84.1W WEAK

00UTC 03.12.2000 17.5N 84.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 03.12.2000 16.3N 83.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 04.12.2000 16.3N 83.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 04.12.2000 16.2N 83.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 05.12.2000 16.0N 83.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 05.12.2000 16.0N 83.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 06.12.2000 15.9N 84.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 06.12.2000 16.3N 84.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE





THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT





THE MET. OFFICE, BRACKNELL, UK



TOO 301755



Well done (#2)
Posted by: Jason Location: South Fl
Posted On 02:37PM 30-Nov-2000 with id (QYYNRTQNXNQXT*)


Mike and John you did a great job this past season. I never post but I sure enjoy reading others. Please keep this site going in the future, it is one of the best information sources on the net as far as developing storms. I will speak for all that use this site, Thank You!!

why oh why (#3)
Posted by:
paul (http://www.flhurricane.com) Location: miami
Posted On 09:07AM 06-Dec-2000 with id (QYYNRQRNRUPNQ*)


in miami its pretty bad for weather disaters
why won't it just go way and go to upprer canada?

It's test time once again (#4)
Posted by: Gary (
http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 11:17AM 06-Dec-2000 with id (RPYNTNTSNQSU*)


DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.



.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....



NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL STORM TEST (AL9900) ON 20001206 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...

001206 1200 001207 0000 001207 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 23.0N 75.0W 25.8N 70.0W 29.7N 62.6W

BAMM 23.0N 75.0W 25.5N 71.8W 29.0N 65.9W

A90E 23.0N 75.0W 23.8N 76.5W 25.5N 75.4W

LBAR 23.0N 75.0W 25.3N 73.7W 28.8N 69.8W

SHIP 45KTS 43KTS 31KTS



...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...

001208 0000 001208 1200 001209 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 34.0N 50.7W 35.6N 36.4W 30.5N 21.0W

BAMM 33.4N 55.7W 37.1N 42.1W 40.3N 17.4W

A90E 27.9N 71.4W 29.6N 63.8W 29.4N 43.7W

LBAR 33.2N 61.6W 35.7N 48.7W .0N .0W

SHIP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LAT0 = 23.0N LON0 = 75.0W DIR0 = 285DEG SPD0 = 12KT

LATM12 = 22.4N LONM12 = 72.4W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 12KT

LATM24 = 21.8N LONM24 = 69.8W

WND0 = 45KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 35KT

CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 60NM



.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....



NNNN






could it be (part 2) (#5)
Posted by: Gary (
http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 11:30AM 06-Dec-2000 with id (RPYNTNTSNQSU*)


MET. OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND NORTH ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 06.12.2000



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+48 : 16.3N 82.8W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 08.12.2000 16.3N 82.8W WEAK

12UTC 08.12.2000 17.1N 83.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 09.12.2000 17.2N 84.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 09.12.2000 18.0N 85.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 10.12.2000 18.9N 86.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 10.12.2000 21.1N 86.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 11.12.2000 22.6N 87.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 11.12.2000 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH





THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT





THE MET. OFFICE, BRACKNELL, UK


Special tropical Disturbance Statement (#6)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 05:46PM 06-Dec-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)


SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
430 PM EST WED DEC 6 2000

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN HONDURAS AND JAMAICA IS
PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN...PRIMARILY NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

FORECASTER AVILANOTE: It has really developed today, looks like a td or ts already...-100C tops,
gravity waves, cdo, and it is holding or increasing the last few hrs.

I believe they are saying it will not develop just due to climo. Thoughts?

IHS,

Bill


NHC test for Carib (#7)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 05:52PM 06-Dec-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)


Interestingly, earlier they had the storm developing near the Bahamas...

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION (AL9000) ON 20001206 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...
001206 1800 001207 0600 001207 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.8N 81.1W 14.9N 82.3W 17.3N 82.5W
BAMM 12.8N 81.1W 14.6N 82.2W 16.5N 82.0W
A90E 12.8N 81.1W 13.8N 82.0W 14.7N 82.7W
LBAR 12.8N 81.1W 14.8N 81.5W 17.2N 80.8W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS

...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...
001208 0600 001208 1800 001209 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.8N 81.7W 22.6N 79.8W 28.6N 70.5W
BAMM 18.5N 81.1W 20.4N 80.0W 24.2N 78.2W
A90E 15.6N 82.9W 16.9N 82.7W 19.7N 82.4W
LBAR 19.7N 79.0W 22.5N 76.1W 29.0N 66.4W
SHIP 41KTS 42KTS 41KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LAT0 = 12.8N LON0 = 81.1W DIR0 = 320DEG SPD0 = 7KT
LATM12 = 11.4N LONM12 = 80.3W DIRM12 = 305DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 11.1N LONM24 = 78.9W
WND0 = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = -9NM RD34SE = -9NM RD34SW = -9NM RD34NW = -9NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

NNNN



TD? (#8)
Posted by: Gary Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 07:32PM 06-Dec-2000 with id (VUNSRNQTPNUX*)


WHXX04 KWBC 062326

CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP HURRICANE MODEL..GFDL MMM...FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION NAMELESS 90L



INITIAL TIME 18Z DEC 6



FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 12.8 81.1

6 13.1 81.0 13./ 3.5

12 13.5 81.4 314./ 5.6

18 13.7 81.8 293./ 3.8

24 14.0 81.8 356./ 3.0

30 14.2 82.2 292./ 4.6

36 14.5 82.3 349./ 3.3

42 14.7 83.1 286./ 7.9

48 15.0 83.7 295./ 6.3

54 15.2 84.3 289./ 6.6

60 16.2 85.2 318./12.7

66 16.5 86.0 292./ 8.1

72 17.0 86.2 332./ 5.4

78 17.3 86.5 322./ 4.5


Disturbance (#9)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 11:24PM 06-Dec-2000 with id (QRYNQQUNUUNQPY*)


I think it's a combination of climo, and the lack of recon data. Seems the NHC rarely, if ever dispatches out-of-season tropical recco missions.
Then again, though convection is strong, there doesn't seem to be a well-defined core just yet.



Carib again (#10)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 11:54AM 21-Dec-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)


A tropical disturbance has developed at the tail of a cold front off the coast of Nicaraugua and Honduras, moving wnw/nw.

Take a look!

Development is occurring today.

IHS,

Bill

South 'O Cuba (#11)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 01:06PM 21-Dec-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)


Yeah Bill, this area was something that the NCEP tropical desk discounted yesterday, but the MRF insisted on. Looks like an area of low pressure to me, with good convection firing. Here's the scenario. Storm develops and heads to the NNW, cold front comes in from developing coastal low off NJ, Polar air meets tropical air = white christmas in Florida - Ho Ho Ho!!! NOT! Lets watch it anyhow; will be fun to see if it cranks up. Cheers, and Happy Holidays to All!!

North Pole Weather Srevice (#12)
Posted by: Gary (
http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 03:29PM 21-Dec-2000 with id (RPYNTNTSNQTY*)


Major Tropical Snowstorm warning infect for all of Florida!!!

Carib (#13)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 05:51PM 22-Dec-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)


Amazing how the development of this system/scenario is parallel with the last one...even a low developing over the BOC, which is what demised the last system.

IHS,

Bill


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