Lets Play the Odds...
04:29 PM EDT - 23 June 2000

The little wave just west of Africa is going to be a little bugger. Climatology, (basically historical records of weather activity) is 100% against something forming out here. Nothing has in June (not even a depression). But it is persisting.

To the north and west of the system lies relatively strong shear. However, it's just far enough south to escape it immediately and slide underneath this influence. (How long it can maintain this is another thing). Usually around 35 degrees west or so, these early systems die out. But it could persist.

Sea surface temperatures are just above what's needed to sustain a tropical storm. The Dvorak T numbers (satellite photo derived windspeed) suggest a depression now ~1.5. But this is questionable.
Nevertheless the chance of it becoming a depression--and it would be the FIRST ever recorded to form anywhere this far east (By FAR) in June--is up around 40% in my eye now. I'd give it much less chance of becoming a named tropical system.

If it does develop, it will be a wake up call to many people (me included), because it just doesn't (normally) happen.

Note that it would be nearly impossible to survive the trek across the Atlantic even if it does form.

Anyone have more insight? Use the comment button next to the headline to do so.

I still don't think it's a good indicator for the rest of the season, though. (What's more interesting about indicators of this season's future more relates toward the general path of storms... being the bermuda high for one)

More Sat images: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

- [mac]