CFHC Talkback For News Story #32:
Newest Talkback: 11:29 PM 08-03 EDT

One more day in July
07:38 PM EDT - 30 July 2000

July coming to an end, no named storms. Thanks to all 180+ voters who participated in the survey (The Rest of July). The Atlantic is starting to fire-up, I think we are in for a busy August and September. Let’s start hearing those predictions for August in the comments section. I have not had time to study any of the models yet, so I will leave the predictions up to you all.
Although we do not monitor the Pacific, I would like to mention that hurricane Daniel has been downgraded to a tropical storm and that a tropical storm warning remains in effect of the islands of Maui County and for the Island of Hawaii and is issued for the Oahu including the city of Honolulu. Effective at 11am hst.

satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Comments? Use the comment button by the story Headline.

- [jc]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #24 (of 24 total)
look in "models" (#1)
Posted by: richard Location: melbourne
Posted On 10:12PM 30-Jul-2000 with id (VSNRUTNQPPNUX*)

please read my apology to you guys in the previous section.thanks!
Tropical Development (#2)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 07:23AM 31-Jul-2000 with id (QRNWWNQSSNUT*)

Hello All,
Well again we are looking at an increasing bubbling in the Atlantic. There is a new wave comming off of Africa this weekend that looks very interesting and I believe the best bet for a tropical system this week. The other is the low and mid level swirl at 15n-43w and now pressures have fallen to 1009 mb and even a very little thunderstorm development to the south of the center. Both of these systems have a good chance but the one off of Africa has the best chance.
The swirl at 15n-43w is now getting very close to water temp. at 80-82 degrees so this may be the missing factor it needs to develope. I do believe we will see more from the NHC over the next 48 hours of possible development in the Alantic.
I agree with you Mark (#3)
Posted by: Richard Byett (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 08:19AM 31-Jul-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNSRNQQQ*)

It does look like the Atlantic may indeed be about to produce something worth our attention. Like Mark says there are signs that both systems in the Atlantic may develop.
The wave just off Africa does of some cyclonic curvature and the convection is widespread and moderate.
But the wave and low along 43W still looks like it has the better chance to me. It is about to enter warmer SST's and it has maintained a tight cyclonic swirl. As it moves over warmer waters the convection may well increase, and there are signs of this already. The pressure is already down to 1009mb too!
However i would still watch the Caribbean and Gulf. The AVN model shows something developing from the wave in the Western Caribbean, and then heading north off the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. By 72 hours it brings it to the south of the Louisianna coast. This could be an interesting few days now!
Tropical Update (#4)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 02:22PM 31-Jul-2000 with id (QRNWWNQWWNQV*)

Hello All,
Well there is only a few new things to report since this mourning mainly with the wave at 14n..45w.. Pressure is at 1010mb but the new report is showers and a few thunderstorms have started to develope near the center and to the south. Its only a little but it has increased since this mournings satellite so it may be the sign its entering warmer waters and maybe starting to develope just a bit. We will have to see if it continues over night. If it does we may have a TD over the next 48 hours. No models have picked this up but I haven't been too excited with what the models have been showing so far this year so I would say watch this wave closely.

SE Bahamas (#5)
Posted by: Warren Tims Location: Savannah, GA
Posted On 07:36PM 31-Jul-2000 with id (RTNRNUSNVY*)

What's going on there? Something has really blown up there today. Is this something to worry about?


S.E. Bahamas (#6)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 08:44PM 31-Jul-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYVNSY*)

I've looking at this area since this morning and was also concerned due to the amount of convection that has sustained for long period of time. I understand it is associated to a tutt and is expected to move to the north over time --- however, if it remains witin this area and pressures start falling, we'll need to monitor it. Anyone have any data out there on this disturbed area? cheers.
Tropical Development (#7)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 07:11AM 01-Aug-2000 with id (QRNWWNQSTNQY*)

Hello All,
Well things have calm down this mourning over the Atlantic but we still have a coule of areas being watched. The first is the swirl ow circulation 14n...49w...for the first time we have a bit of convection near the center which makes be believe waters are warming up underneath it. The only thing wrong is it is running into a dry air mass and northerly shear over the next 24-48 hours so development is not likely for at least 48-72 hours. The other has just come off Africa but waters are too cool for development north of 12 degrees so if this system has any chance it must stay below 12 north or wait until it gets near the carribean in 3-4 days. So right now I don't see development for the next 48-72 hours at best. I know we all are looking forward to our first storm even myself but its just not in the cards yet and if you look over Africa there are some impressive areas of thunderstorms heading for the atlantic and I do believe we will see something over the next couple of weeks.
2 Lows, maybe a 3rd soon? (#8)
Posted by: Richard Byett (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 01:52PM 01-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNSSNQR*)

Well there are now two tropical waves in the atlantic, both of which are supporting a low pressure area.
The first one along 45'W has maintained identity for a number of days now, and convection continues to occur close to the centre of the low. It continues to move into more favourable environment and may develop in 24-48 hours.
The wave behind it also supports a 1012mb, and this wave is accompanied by more stronger convection, it too may develop shortly.

However the 3rd possible low is centred south of Yucatan. And i notice NHC have said this system has become better organised. However it will soon be moving over the Yucatan so development over the next 48 hours will be limited. Despite this it will move into the Gulf of Mexico where SST's are high... and you may remember a couple of days ago i said this may happen.. lets keep watching all three of these areas.
Atlantic Low (#9)
Posted by: Richard B (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 04:00PM 01-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNTVNQVV*)

Well i have just looked at the latest Atlantic imagery and i see that the wave and low acroos 36'W are holding together nicely. There is a most clear cyclonic circulation within the low level clouds around the low, and there is isolated convection to the south of the system. I dont see any immediate development but as this system moves towards the west past 40'W it will encounter warmer SST's, these could encourage the system to develop.
The low to the east of the Caribbean has potential to develop too, however it is located in a drier air mass and this may be quelling the convection... it will be a while before this system develops if it is going to develop at all.

And the disturbed weather near Yucatan continues to become better organised... this area will bear watching when it enters the Gulf in the next few days.
models (#10)
Posted by: alan Location: orlando
Posted On 10:35AM 02-Aug-2000 with id (RPVNRVNRTYNTT*)

Nothing like wave mongering waiting for the first storm.
Looking at the new models, the AVN and MRF are both trying to kick something up again. In the 60 hour run of the MRF, there is what looks like a tropical storm ENE of the islands. Further runs were not done yet.
The AVN shows the same system at the same place on its 72 hour run.
Of course, those were the models that said we would have a tropical storm in the gulf and a hurricane north of Puerto Rico today. Obviously that didn't happen and neither model is forecasting something out of the long-running swirl or the disturbance over the Yucatan.

Nothing Imminent (#11)
Posted by: Ronn Raszetnik, Jr. Location: Largo, Florida
Posted On 11:49AM 02-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNRW*)

The tropics remain relatively inactive this morning with no signs of imminent tropical cyclogenesis. The region offering the best chance for development right now is the eastern Atlantic. The ITCZ in this region is exhibiting many large convective clusters, but none of them show any signs of organization. Some computer models--namely the MRF and AVN--indicate a Cape Verde TC forming over the next several days, but until I see evidence of this, I'm not buying it. The UKMET may offer the best forecast, as it indicates a well-defined tropical low over the Cape Verde Islands in 72 hours. If this forecast materializes, we may see a TD by 96 hours, but I don't believe any TD formation will occur before then. The second week of August should produce more activity.

God Bless,
Ronn Raszetnik, Jr.
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT (#12)
Posted by: MARK rUCK Location: FT MYERS FLORIDA
Posted On 05:03AM 03-Aug-2000 with id (QRNWWNQXPNYT*)

Hello All,
Well we continue to wait for the tropics to pop its cork and I guess we'll wait a bit longer. The only area that I am concerned at all about is at 32w...11n... There is circulation present and it remains below 12 north which is allowing it to remain in waters above 80 degrees. Any thing above 12 north out to 50 west waters remain between 75-80 degrees so tropical development is not likely. As for this one wave it is going into some wind shear in the short term but as it approaches 50w this shear should weaken which may allow for some development at that time. So at least another 48 hours or so before we see anything here I believe. As for the waves now exiting off of Africa they are impressive the biggest so far but again water temp. are to close that 80 degree mark to warrant any development in the short term if they remain below 12 north we may see slow development in time. I don't know about all of you but this waiting is driving me nuts!!!
12N 20W Wave (#13)
Posted by: Ronn Raszetnik, Jr. Location: Largo, Florida
Posted On 09:13AM 03-Aug-2000 with id (QWRNQVPNQXNQW*)

A strong tropical wave with a well-defined circulation around 12 N 20 W is the best candidate for development this morning. Strong convection near the circulation center makes this wave definitely one to watch, but only time will tell whether this wave persists or not. Nevertheless, it is one of the most formidable waves to emerge off the west African coast in a while.

God Bless,
Ronn Raszetnik, Jr.
Today in the tropics (#14)
Posted by: Bill Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 10:07AM 03-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Hi all!

Agree with you Mark, driving us all crazy!

The comments by you and Ronn about the waves are right on. Two other areas of interest pique my curiosity this morning. One is E of the Bahamas. It's been persistent, SSTs are good, there is a bit of shear...time will tell (it is partially a reflection of an upper/middle low).

Also...unusual location, but it has popped in this area in other years...south of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland at the end of a front,a system seems to be taking place. I recall TS Becky in the 60s (64, 66?) forming in this area, and I think , wasn't a hurricane named Bill also formed in this area a few years ago? It is looking prety impressive on the IR shots this morning. actually, SSTs are not too bad int his particular area, partially due to the Gulf Stream.

Convection continues in the west Gulf ,and it seems to be flaring in the NW Carib too...time will tell. The Gulf system is very close to land, and the Carib flare-up my just be a diurnal variation.

Finally, look at the monster about to come off Africa. I don't see any well defined circulation, but it is a monster of a wave!

COUNTING DOWN...IHS,

Bill

ps- my personal prediction is that we will have a storm somewhere by mid-month, perhaps by the end of this weekend.
North Atlantic MRF (#15)
Posted by: Bill
Posted On 10:40AM 03-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Not that I put any great store in the MRF, but it is curious that it shows a tropical cyclone forming just about in the area I mentioned in the North Atlantic and LOOPING south over Bermuda. (The model has had it in for Bermuda the last few days with several different cyclones hitting the island straight on!)

Also it show a storm hitting central Florida, and another hitting Texas.

All this indicates that conditions are becoming RIPE for TC development in the tropics.

IHS,

Bill
Low south of Nova Scotia (#16)
Posted by: Richard B (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 11:29AM 03-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNSTNTQ*)

Well i have looked at the latest visible and ir imagery and the area mentioned above, about 35N 57W, does look impressive... it is located over sst's of around 27C so development is possible. And as Bill said the MRF picks this system up and swings it towards Bermuda. The AVN model also picks it up and takes it south-east before veering back west towards Bermuda.... for once two forecast models agree! And this motion would take the system over more favourable SST's. We can only watch and see if it will become what we have been waiting for... Arlene!
The models have been trying to form something and they are each developing seperate areas.. this is a clear sign to me, as Bill says, that the Atlantic must be about to explode into activity... wrell i hope so!

N. Atlantic (#17)
Posted by: Bill
Posted On 11:54AM 03-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Thanks Richard for your thoughts. It does seem to be getting better organized.

The first storm would be...Alberto!

Lookinbg a little more closely at the convection the Gulf now too.

Thanks!

IHS,

Bill
Tropics yadayadaya (#18)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 12:31PM 03-Aug-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

I agree guys Alberto would be our virtual Arlene (that's pretty much where Arlene formed last June) but the models are insisting that something's going to form, so by gosh, something's got to form. And interesting how the MRF has a cyclone hitting E. Central Fl...yes E. Central FL..day 9.5 - 10. the target will change 22 times before that happens, but stuff will start to hit the fan. The wave off Africa appears to have a well-developed circulation with embedded convection. Let's see if those two elements stay in tandem. This area is our best bet so far of a TS forming that I've seen yet, and climatology favors it. We'll see..cheers!
Back (#19)
Posted by: Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Orlando, FL
Posted On 12:44PM 03-Aug-2000 with id (RPWNSPNWTNQTT*)

Wow, really interesting stuff with model predictions this morning. I'm back in Florida for a few weeks, so it may be right on time. I'm going to do an update hopefully later tonight on the main site.

The MRF thinks I picked a good time to go back to Central Florida. If that pans out I'll be surprised, but not shocked.

-- Mike C. - currently in downtown Orlando


I meant Alberto (#20)
Posted by: Richard B (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 04:51PM 03-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNQXPNSW*)

Just to say that i meant Alberto, not Arlene! And the same area continues to look more and more promising. Cyclonic circulation contiues to become more evident in satellite imagery and the latest surface analysis from NHC indicates a drop of 7mb in pressure, from 1022mb to 1015mb, within 24 hours. At the same time it is forecast to head south, into a more favourable environment. I notice that even though it is not a tropical system yet, it does have a tight circulation and the convection is very concentrated near the centre, so development is very possible. We will just have to wait and see... again!
Question??? (#21)
Posted by: Hank Buck
Posted On 04:59PM 03-Aug-2000 with id (RPYNQUVNRTPNRQ*)

When was the first named storm of the 1999 season?
First 99 Tropical Storm (#22)
Posted by: Richard B (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 05:31PM 03-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNQXPNSW*)

The first named storm to develop in 1999 in the Atlantic was Arlene, Hank. She developed on the 11-June to the Southeast of Bermuda. Arlene was followed by a Tropical Depression that formed on 2-July in the Bay of Campeche. The Atlantic was then quiet until Hurricane Bret first developed on the 18-August.
This year has been quieter in that we have had no named storm as yet, and only two depressions. Both of these depressions formed in June with no Tropical Cyclone activity in July. This lack of activity is unusual in that in every ten years a tropical storm or hurricane develops in July during 7 of those years, on average.
However the system along 33N57W looks like it might change things. so i will be watching this area closely to see if we will have this years first named storm... Alberto.
Tropical Situation (#23)
Posted by: Ronn Raszetnik, Jr. Location: Largo, Florida
Posted On 06:31PM 03-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNQUQ*)

The low around 33 N 57 W is simply a baroclinic surface low which has developed along a stationary frontal boundary. Development of this system is very unlikely.

The tropical wave southeast of the Cape Verde Islands still offers the best chance for development. Convection remains intact around a well-defined 1010 MB surface low. If this trend continues, a tropical depression may form. The next 24 hours will probably determine the fate of this system. If it holds together, I expect tropical depression formation; if not, the wave will go to the same graveyard as its predecessors.

God Bless,
Ronn Raszetnik, Jr.
Earlier Question??? (#24)
Posted by: Hank Buck
Posted On 07:29PM 03-Aug-2000 with id (RPYNQUVNRTPNQPS*)

Thanks for your answers. This site is totally professional. I did not expect a reply so quickly. You guys, keep up the good work!!
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