CFHC Talkback For News Story #40:
Newest Talkback: 05:00 PM 08-08 EDT

Three Areas to Watch
07:08 AM EDT - 08 August 2000

Alberto, East of the Turks & Caicos in the Bahamas, and over the Yucatan.

Alberto: Alberto is still moving West Northwest and is weakening right now. If it manages to survive its current problems, it will most likely restrengthen. I expect it to move west northwest and eventually more northwest. However, the water vapor loop imagery here suggest it is still worth watching. (And longer term, some models are making it head westward again) It's still too early to rule Alberto out.

Chances of Alberto affecting land: 

(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
           [----*------------------]

East of Bahamas: This is actually two areas, one more east of Florida, and another east of the Turks and Caicos islands. The smaller one (Closer to Florida) won't have enough time to strengthen into anything significant. Expect possible heavy rainfall from it where it passes over land.

My Development Chances Scale for this wave: Development Chances for it 
(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
           [---*-------------------]

The one east of the Bahamas died down overnight and just now is starting to show signs of life again, this has more potential to develop, but even so, it wouldn't have too much time to get strong. But the proximity to land requires us to watch it closely for the unexpected. My Development Chances Scale for this wave: 
(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
           [--------*-------------]


Yucatan: This wave heading into the Southern Gulf would probably be a Tropical Depression now if it weren't for the land. It'll move into the Gulf and most likely Mexico or southern Texas. I'm not too sure on it, however, so it will require watching for a while. However, this morning it isn't looking quite as well.
My Development Chances Scale for this wave: 
(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
           [-------*---------------]

Questions? Comments? Use the comment button by the story Headline.

Nice Satellite Image of Atlantic (IR Colorized)

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #10 (of 10 total)
Repost of: "Tropical Development" (#1)
Posted by: Mark Ruck (Repost) Location: Ft Meyers Florida
Posted On 07:10AM 08-Aug-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRTNSR*)

Hello All,
Well lets start from the west and move east..
The tropical wave over the Yucatan this mourning is showing signs of development even while over land. I do see some possibility we could have a TD over the next 24 hours(75%) the one thing holding me back is it may be too close to land to really get going but well see exactly where it forms.
The next is east of the Turks and Cacos islands. There was signs yesterday of possible development but I found upper level winds are still not condusive for development. I do believe we may see something still from this wave as it approaches Florida in 36-48 hours but nothing major at this time is expected.
The third is Hurricane Alberto. I said yesterday I did not believe Alberto would turn nw-n in time but instead turn more westward in time and that is more likely now than last night.. Alberto has missed the trough and should resume a west track by last today. People in the U.S. Virgin islands and Purto Rico should continue to watch Alberto because Alberto should start to strengthen again in about 18 hours or so. I would also add that people in the Bahama's should start to monitor this system as well.. Long range forecasts are bringing Alberto towards the Bahama's in 4-6 days as a Cat#2 storm.
The last is tropical waves comming off of Africa. Some models have tried to develope a TD south of the Cape Verde Islands in 36 hours. Will see...
Right now people in the Gulf of Mexico and southeast U.S. need to start watching over the next few days more closely on development and track information.
Action! (#2)
Posted by: Richard B (Repost) (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk/) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 07:11AM 08-Aug-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRTNSR*)

(Reposted by CFHC)

As i have said all along Alberto would fail to make the northerly turn. And so he has, with NHC saying that it is likely to remain on a weterly or northwesterly track ovewr the next 36-48 hours, before making a more westerly turn once again. I know the system is currently weakening but in 24 hours the system will enter warmer SST's, and an area of less wind shear. Of note is how the storm has spent much of its life over marginal SST's yet has managed to attain and maintain hurricane intensity. I think we could see some rapid intensification after 24 hours. I am maintaining the extended watch for the north eastern Caribbean, and may extend it to include Puerto Rico, Turks and Caicos, and parts of the Bahamas depending on the hurricanes course over the next day. With the change in the forecast track all in the northeast Caribbean, Bahamas, Puerto Rico, and Turks and Caicos should watch this system very very closely. In 72 hours the centre of the hurricane is forecast to be just north and east of of the Lesser Antilles. We must now watch Alberto closely.
I also think the area east of the Bahamas need watching closely. It has not become any better organised but the bermuda low has become much less organised so the system to the east of the bahamas may now stand a better chance of development. We will have to wait and see. It may not develop much before reaching the Florida coast, perhaps a depression, perhaps a weak tropical storm. However should it maintain identity and end up in the Gulf of Mexico then we will need to watch the system closely.
And finally the Yucatan low. It remains extremely well organised, and i can see a depression forming when it enters the Gulf of Mexico, and with such high SST's it could develop rapidly. Person along the Mexican Gulf Coast, and the Texas coast should watch this area closely!
Very busy, and we could see some action soon!
In the meantime take care.

Reposts (#3)
Posted by: Mike C. (http://www.flhurricane.com) Location: Newport News, VA (Yet currently in Cocoa, FL)
Posted On 07:14AM 08-Aug-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRTNSR*)

I've reposted the last two comments from the previous article, because they timed it right when I did a new update. I didn't want others to miss it because of that. Thanks folks.

-MC
details above (#4)
Posted by: Richard B (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 07:14AM 08-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNQXPNTT*)

my location is Gloucester, England, UK.... not Fort Meyers as stated above, and the subject for the above is Action!
Fixed (#5)
Posted by: Mike C. (http://www.flhurricane.com) Location: Newport News, VA (Yet currently in Cocoa, FL)
Posted On 07:21AM 08-Aug-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRTNSR*)

Found a little bug, but I fixed it. Thanks for the heads up.
Tropical Atlantic (#6)
Posted by: Ronn Raszetnik, Jr. Location: Largo, Florida
Posted On 08:51AM 08-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNTR*)

Hurricane Alberto has become very disorganized over the past 24 hours due to strong southerly wind shear across the region. This shear is being produced by a weakening trough directly to the west of Alberto. This trough has not effected any significant northward motion, and I believe that Alberto will continue WNW for the next 36 hours. During the next 24 hours, the southern extent of the trough should break off from the main trough and form a cut-off cyclonic circulation just east of the Lesser Antilles. This cut-off low should then move westward into the Caribbean. The circulation of this system combined with that of high pressure to the north will begin to instigate a more westward motion in 48 hours. I believe that Alberto should still pass north of the Leeward Islands; however, any deviation to the south and Alberto may come close.

The tropical wave east of the Bahamas is firing back up this morning with an impressive cluster of heavy convection. Conditions have become more favorable for development over the past 12 hours as an upper-level low over eastern Cuba continues to move west-southwest. Regardless of what this wave becomes, it will continue to move west-northwest following the circulation of the upper-low to its southwest and a building high pressure ridge to its northwest. Since this system will be moving over the Gulf Stream, some rapid development is possible before it moves ashore east-Central Florida. This is the greatest by far for Florida right now.

A tropical wave traversed the Yucatan Peninsula overnight and is now located in the southwest Gulf of Mexico with a 1009 MB surface low in the extreme southern Bay of Campeche. This system does not look as impressive as it did 12 hours ago with no areas of organized convection at present. It will still have to be monitored for development, but it will probably move into Mexico before any significant development occurs.

God Bless,
Ronn Raszetnik, Jr.


The greatest What Ronn ? THreat? (#7)
Posted by: Steve H (http://E. Caribbean)
Posted On 10:01AM 08-Aug-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

Ronn, In agreement with your thinking, the subject wave is still of concern, regardless of my negative comments against it last night on the chat. A lower-level circulation is evident on vis sat pix in the SE bahamas at 22/23N, 72 W If upper level winds die off this could devvelop rapidly...we'll yhave to see. In your comment I think you left a word out when you said "THis is by far the greatest for florida right now"..or something like that . Did you mean threat?
Threat (#8)
Posted by: Ronn Raszetnik, Jr. Location: Largo, Florida
Posted On 10:27AM 08-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPUNUS*)

Oh yes, it was the word "threat" that I intended to include in there. In the near term, this wave is the biggest threat to Florida. The system in the Bay of Campeche will move into Mexico and it is too early to determine if Alberto will be a threat. I do see the circulation on visible satellite imagery this morning, but the wave still remains rather disorganized. We'll just have to keep monitoring it.

God Bless,
Ronn Raszetnik, Jr.

Double Punch (#9)
Posted by: Duncan Mitre Location: Winter Park, FL
Posted On 10:50AM 08-Aug-2000 with id (RPWNSPNWTNRP*)

How strong could the storm get before getting to Florida? And if Alberto came here too it would be a one two punch. Ow..
Duncan,
Who hopes both just disappear.
Alberto...Strengthening? (#10)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 01:00PM 08-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNVS*)

Just a quick comment, but I think Alberto is beginning to form an eye. At least that's what it looks like on the latest visible sat pic. Anyone else see it? Colleen
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