CFHC Talkback For News Story #46:
Newest Talkback: 03:02 AM 08-11 EDT

Oompa Loompa Depression
05:02 AM EDT - 10 August 2000

Not much has changed since last night. We have this amazing little depression just off our coast. (Amazing in the fact how well defined the circulation is, how small it is, and how just devoid of anything other than low level activity it is -- Truly an oddball system). It's hard to tell without visible pictures, but its close enough to the Melbourne NWS office to see it on radar. It's moving a bit north of west now. But still VERY slowly. If it were a bigger system we'd be feeling it right now. But, it's incredibly small so we aren't.

I'm guessing the center of it will get within 30 miles or so of Cape Canaveral, and then head north. It probably will finally start to get stronger today as well, and may become a tiny Tropical Storm. After that I expect the trough to nudge it up and away from the coast where it will be left behind. After that all bets are off, but I expect it'll drift around a bit and move offshore off the NC coast. In other words, if it does get picked up, and not left behind, then it won't affect land at all. If it does not then it will drift, and I really don't know where it will end up yet. This mini-storm is just strange.

Otherwise. Hurricane Alberto still churns away. the one wave East of the Bahamas is again in very poor shape, and the wave emerging of Africa looks to be the best chance for the next thing.

Canaveral East Buoy Reports (Nearest to TD#4)
Canaveral West Buoy Reports (Nearer to Shore)

Comments or Questions? Use the comment button by the story Headline.

Nice Satellite Image of Atlantic (IR Colorized)

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #1 (of 22 total)
TD#4 (#1)
Posted by: Jerry Reed Location: Ormond Beach, Florida
Posted On 06:31AM 10-Aug-2000 with id (RPYNQUVNRTPNQW*)

I'll have to agree w/ your prediction Mike. Lets at least hope that we get some clouds today or tomorrow so it is not so hot for us that have to work outside.
Beryl soon...Chris? (#2)
Posted by: Ronn Raszetnik, Jr. Location: Largo, Florida
Posted On 09:48AM 10-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNQYY*)

Here is my analysis originally posted on ECTWC:

Tropical Depression Four has become slightly better organized this morning with dopplar radar and IR satellite imagery indicating moderate convection wrapping around the circulation center. I believe that TD Four will become Tropical Storm Beryl within 24 hours. Easterly shear over TD Four is beginning to weaken slightly as the shear transists into westerly shear ahead of a trough over the eastern U.S. This transition period should allow TD Four to attain tropical storm status. The approaching trough will also instigate a more northward motion over the next 36 hours, with the system skirting the northeast coast of Florida. Since TD Four is an extremely small tropical cyclone, wind and seas will be relatively harmless. The biggest impact will be increased rainfall over the northern part of the Sunshine State. I do not foresee TD Four making landfall anywhere. It should eventually become absorbed in the trough to its north and taken out to sea.

Hurricane Alberto is no longer a concern for any land areas, but rather only shipping interests. Alberto has been moving on a more west-northwest heading the past 18 hours around the circulation of a cut-off low near the Leeward Islands. However, this motion will not continue as a the trough over the eastern U.S. will curve Alberto north before reaching Bermuda.

The northwest Caribbean Sea is beginning to concern me this morning. A large mass of convection has been very persistent over the past 12 to 24 hours and, if this trend continues, a tropical low may form. An upper-low over the western Yucatan Peninsula is currently producing some southerly wind shear across the northwest Caribbean, but this shear will lessen as the low shifts westward. The circulation around this upper low should also bring the wave into the southern Gulf of Mexico. The future path is very uncertain at this time. I do see some potential for this system to threaten land areas in the eastern Gulf of Mexico...much more than previous waves in this area. This area will have to be closely monitored for signs of development.

A tropical wave south of the Cape Verde Islands continues to look very impressive on IR satellite imagery this morning. Peristent convection and favorable upper-level wind conditions make this wave one to watch. This is just a wait and see situation.

TD Four should become Beryl, and Chris should form from one of the latter two systems.

God Bless,
Ronn Raszetnik, Jr.
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