CFHC Talkback For News Story #5:
Newest Talkback: 02:35 AM 04-29 EDT

Season Getting Near
10:15 AM EDT - 16 April 2002 | One hundred twenty-five Comments | Read Comments | Last 20 Comments | Newest: 02:35 AM 04-29 EDT



Hurricane season getting closer. With 128 posts on the last news article, I just want to thank you all for keeping this site active during the off season. 9PM - 21-Apr Update:

Our new news system is undergoing preliminary testing for the new season.. I'm making improvements to it over the next several weeks. Please Check it out and let us know... Link to new news system. We will be switching over to this near the start of the Hurricane Season. - mc

- [jc]



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Displaying Talkbacks #63 - #83 (of 125 total)
2002 Atlantic hurricane season (#63)
Posted by: Paloma Location: South Florida
Posted On 06:16PM 20-Apr-2002 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNUX*)
12 more hurricanes to go!


Good morning in China right now! (#64)
Posted by: Paloma Location: South Florida
Posted On 08:30PM 20-Apr-2002 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNTV*)
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm


shawn, its all good (#65)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Tallahassee, FL
Posted On 02:18AM 21-Apr-2002 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNQYS*)
dude, all i see right now is streaked clouds and like 80kt worth of shear, with the low level clouds riding the easterlies below. typical scenario in april, and the reason chances anything will form this month are like 1/200. youve got better chances of riding a texas tornado to oz to visit judy garland.. or paloma. i would have also added getting a 5+ magnitude earthquake in upstate new york, just yesterday, but i guess hell does occasionally freeze over. anyhow, the eastpac can go active in about 3 more weeks, so things are getting closer. thats if anybody cares about the eastpac. one basin or another we'll probably get something within 60 days.
anyhow JC nice to hear youre going to make improvements. considered a moneyless lottery on who gets their predictions right the most, or a scoring record? that might make us all a lot more conservative in our forecast guesswork and discussion; if we were rated. could add a new element to the site. just a thought--user feedback.


"Judy Garland was a wonderful girl" (#66)
Posted by: Paloma Location: South Florida
Posted On 12:31PM 21-Apr-2002 with id (VTNQRNQPTNTQ*)
Newspaper said ---> Denis, who was 80 pounds, 3-foot-11 and 47 years old when chosen to play the mayor who told Dorothy to follow Yellow Brick Road, died Thursday in the Maricopa Medical Center.

Judy Garland: "She was a wonderful girl," Denis said.

Denis died on my birthday too AGAIN! That's me!


two things (#67)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Tallahassee, FL
Posted On 01:05PM 21-Apr-2002 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNQYS*)
the sst cold pool that appeared west of the galapagos last week has gotten a bit larger. i'd have something useful to derive from this fact maybe if i understood enough about the nino 1.2 wind anomaly map that ed put up a few days ago in response to my first noticing this. throw me a line, ed...
also, more profound... the recent NE us heatwave has put ssts off the east coast several degrees above normal. cold shot coming down now might temper this. then again, warm here in the southeast will be less easy to displace.


--->Paloma (#68)
Posted by: --->Paloma Location: South Florida
Posted On 04:13PM 21-Apr-2002 with id (VTNQRNQPTNTV*)
2002 Atlantic hurricane season

Paloma will be the last storm of the season this year!


Re: Two Things (#69)
Posted by: Kevin Location: Orlando, Florida
Posted On 04:41PM 21-Apr-2002 with id (QVXNQYQNYQNRT*)
All interesting things you've pointed out...and I've been watching them all. This Nino 1.2 area has been troubling the development any possible El Nino's for a couple of years now...and we could have neutral conditions for the peak of this hurricane season, as HF mentioned in an earlier post. That could mean real trouble.


Atlantic basin: Paloma this year?? (#70)
Posted by: --->Paloma Location: South Florida
Posted On 04:45PM 21-Apr-2002 with id (VTNQRNQPTNTV*)
HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!


2002 Atlantic hurricane season: Paloma will be the last storm of the season! (#71)
Posted by: --->Paloma Location: South Florida
Posted On 05:44PM 21-Apr-2002 with id (VTNQRNQPTNTV*)
SAME NUMBER HERE

There are 5 weeks until hurricane season

Connecticut is our 5th state!



El Nino (#72)
Posted by: Ed Dunham Location: Melbourne, FL
Posted On 06:54PM 21-Apr-2002 with id (VSNQVRNRRVNQVV*)
HF & Kevin: Spent some of this wekend taking a close look at the changes in sst's over the past few months, and pacific sst anomalies are definately on the increase. Here is a good link that shows this trend:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/index_frame.html
Notice the changes in sst anomalies off the northwest coast of South America. From -1.0 to +2.0 in 12 weeks. The anomalies are already at least +0.5 warmer than what had been projected about 6 months ago. While other factors do indeed influence the number of Atlantic basin storms in any given year, its also true that a moderate El Nino will keep these numbers down if the El Nino kicks in a few months before the season begins. It only takes an anomaly of +1.0 to 1.5 to do this. Given the current trend (which will probably influence the numbers for this season and next season as well) I'm starting to see numbers like 10/6/3 for this year - perhaps even 9/5/2, but I'll see how the trend looks in June before I'd drop my numbers down to 9. Wouldn't surprise me to see the EASTPAC season kick in rather soon. Also took a look at how storm totals have changed when the Pacific transitions to an El Nino event after year(s) of high activity in the Atlantic. The average decrease in total storm numbers (25 identified events since 1878) was -5.6. The most dramatic was 1916-17 which dropped from 14 to 3 storms. A weak El Nino seems to lower the storm total by 3 or 4; a moderate by 5 or 6 and a strong by 7 or more. Exceptions have occurred but they are rare - an El Nino event almost always means a decline in the numbers - often a significant decline, but thats a timing thing between the start of the ENSO event and the start of the Atlantic season. Can't see more than 10 storms this year and that assumes a much earlier start to the 2002 season.
Cheers,
ED


There is no dark red in East Pacific, I don't understand (#73)
Posted by: El nino
Posted On 07:44PM 21-Apr-2002 with id (VTNQRNQPTNTR*)
http://152.80.49.210/products/OTIS/otis_glbl_sstanomaly.gif


New News system in Testing (#74)
Posted by: MikeC (http://flhurricane.com/cyclone) Location: Florida, USA
Posted On 09:20PM 21-Apr-2002 with id (RTNRVNTTNQUR*)
I've been gone most of the weekend, but got enough of this working to have it go live with a test...

http://flhurricane.com/cyclone

Try it out, I'll be working some of the bugs out and polishing it over the next few weeks. I hope to have it completely done by the season.

There are bugs. Use the http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/postlist.php?Cat=&Board=suggestions Site suggestion board for problems.

This is a heavily modified (by me) forum system, which means there are likely new bugs. This is what I'll be converting over to fairly soon though. So let me know what you like/dislike etc. Remember it isn't complete!

Thanks,

- Mike C. CFHC





Ed has a Point (#75)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 10:38PM 21-Apr-2002 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNUX*)
The temps are coming up along the equator and the red is making a move towards the reds in the central Pacific. This is data trough April 10th, so we'll have hae to watch how it progresses. Cheers!!


new stuff (#76)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Tallahassee, FL
Posted On 10:56PM 21-Apr-2002 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNQYS*)
check out the new site format.


EL NINO OR NEUTRAL (#77)
Posted by: LONNY Location: HOLLYWOOD FL.
Posted On 08:08AM 22-Apr-2002 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNRPS*)
I personally don't see a El Nino at this time according to NOAA latest SST page.I see a big increase in SST along the Gulf and North Atlantic areas but El Nino I don't think so.If El Nino is going to occur, I think it will be a slower process then is expected. I still don't think El Nino will be a factor this Hurricane season.


YES, RECORD HERE TOO!!! (#78)
Posted by: Paloma Location: South Florida
Posted On 09:27AM 22-Apr-2002 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNQUV*)
There were more hurricanes in the Atlantic basin than in the East Pacific basin from 1995 to 2002!

hahahahaha!!

There will be more hurricanes in Atlantic basin this year?? We shall see...


1995-2001 hurricane seasons (#79)
Posted by: Paloma Location: South Florida
Posted On 09:53AM 22-Apr-2002 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNQUV*)
1995-11 hurricanes in Atlantic!
1995- 7 hurricanes in East Pacific

1996- 9 hurricanes in Atlantic!
1996- 5 hurricanes in East Pacific

1998-10 hurricanes in Atlantic!
1998- 9 hurricanes in East Pacific

1999- 8 hurricanes in Atlantic!
1999- 6 hurricanes in East Pacific

2000- 8 hurricanes in Atlantic!
2000- 6 hurricanes in East Pacific

2001- 9 hurricanes in Atlantic!
2001- 8 hurricanes in East Pacific




Something different (#80)
Posted by: Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Orlando, FL (Currently)
Posted On 11:53AM 22-Apr-2002 with id (VVNRPNQQVNRQS*)
Happened to catch a screenshot of Dick Cheney going by in a motorcade in my Orlando Webcam:



Two weeks is my goal to move the old news system off the main page.




In the Black Truck? (#81)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: palm bay, FL
Posted On 12:54PM 22-Apr-2002 with id (QUUNQPTNRSYNQV*)
That musta been him thrown' a beer out the window..LOL (empty). Mr. Cornelius, do we have to register to post on the new site


New site (#82)
Posted by: Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Orlando, FL (Currently)
Posted On 04:05PM 22-Apr-2002 with id (VVNRPNQQVNRQS*)
You don't have to, but it saves the trouble of retyping info in every time, plus I'm adding a bunch of options to weather data later on that will neede that to save.


2002 Atlantic hurricane season. No depressions this year!!!!!! (#83)
Posted by: Paloma Location: South Florida
Posted On 06:21PM 23-Apr-2002 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNQUW*)
I believe there will be 16 tropical storms with NO DEPRESSIONS this year! Paloma will be the last storm of the season this year!


I like the... (#84)
Posted by: Kevin Location: State/city of confusion (Orlando, Florida)
Posted On 08:05PM 23-Apr-2002 with id (QVXNQYQNYQNQQ*)
new feedback feature. Makes the site a easier to naviagate. Also makes using it a little easier. What's even more intersting is the cooling along the equator, it seems to be warding off the warm area off of the SA coast. Latest ENSO forecast released today, and it certainly looks interesting. It only shows the warming becoming adequate to hinder a hurricane season by December. Obviously, if this forecast does indeed pan out, we will be in for an interesting season with quite a few landfalls. It also shows the El Nino beginning to weaken by March of 2003, where as in the last forecast in showed it strengthening. When I find the link, I'll post it. If you know the link, look at it. Either way, prepare. This season may (and probably will) have more landfalls than the past few years.


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