CFHC Talkback For News Story #50:
Newest Talkback: 04:42 PM 08-14 EDT

TD#5 Forms in Gulf of Mexico
05:40 PM EDT - 13 August 2000

Motion stationary but eventually moving northwest, we now have our 5th Tropical Depression of the season. This came back and surprised me the other day, and now it has happened. There was development this weekend :).

Folks along the Western Gulf Coast should be watching it since it has time to strengthen. More will come later. The rest of the Gulf should be aware of it as well. My initial prediction has it somewhere north or near Brownsville, TX in about two-three days. Keep watch.

Comments or Questions? Use the comment button by the story Headline.

Nice Satellite Image of Atlantic (IR Colorized)

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [jc]

Show All Comments
Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #9 (of 9 total)
Troppical Storm Watch (#1)
Posted by: Richard Byett (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 06:20PM 13-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNTTNUV*)

Well at last we have something in the gulf! It has been threatening to happen for days but now we have TD 5, and i think we will see Beryl from this system within the next 24 hours. NHC are talking about issuing watches and warnings this evening. However i have issued a 'tropical storm watch' on my site for the area between Brownsville, TX and Port Arthur, TX. I think we will see this TD become a moderate or strong Tropical Storm by the time it goes inland over texas. All residents along the Texas coast must pay close attention to this system and to what the official authorities have to say. This sytem look like it may be a big rain dumper too, so there could be a risk of flooding before this system comes ashore even. It has looked quite well organised on imagery, but should become much better organised over the next day or so.
I will be monitoring this system closely as it tracks through the Gulf, and will issue and update watches and warnings on my site as necessary, but they are for guidance only (please always check official forecast from the NHC!).
In the meantime take care all!
Brief Comments (#2)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 11:18PM 13-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNUX*)

As someone who lives in South Texas, I plan to keep a close watch on this system. There's been some speculation among my friends that it'll "pull a Bret", but I think that's unlikely.
Looking forward to more observations...it's a shame the Tampico radar is out. Texans are anticipating this system to be a big rainmaker, as we're in tough drought conditions. Can only hope that this will be a relatively mild, dry system should proto-Beryl draw a bead on the Texas coast...
Analysis (#3)
Posted by: Ed Dunham Location: Melbourne, FL
Posted On 12:12AM 14-Aug-2000 with id (VSNQVRNRRVNSW*)

A look at the GOES-8 IR out of SSEC really tells the whole story. High pressure firmly anchored in the southwest Atlantic; sharp trough extending from western Lake Erie to the Gulf of Mexico near 23N 88W; building high pressure over Texas - the key word is anchored, i.e., nothing moving in the longwave pattern. The strength of the Texas upper level high is becoming rather impressive - look at the tstms from Arizona extending southeastward along the west Mexican mountains all the way to Central America - pretty good outflow. TD5 really has nowhere to go except to the west - maybe west northwest. There is some early indication that the high pressure in the western Atlantic is building a little southward, so eventually the trough will begin to move to the east and lift out to the northeast. This will allow the high over Texas to finally move eastward while the ridge axis of the western Atlantic high pushes westward past Cuba and the Yucatan and perhaps into the southern Gulf. TD5, probably TS Beryl by the 15Z bulletin, will slowly be forced to the west. I expect the forecast track to be adjusted to the left again more toward the northeast coast of Mexico; say between 24N and 25N. I also believe that the storm will reach hurricane strength before landfall. There could be a 'fly in the ointment' if the storm drifts northward before the west or west northwest motion locks in. Then the westward moving ridge axis could undercut the storm and lift it toward the northeast Gulf coast, but the probability of this is pretty slim.

Looks like JJ has a chance for some of that much needed rainfall, but hopefully without too much wind. (Boy, this was almost fun - I haven't done this in a long time). Anybody else see other alternatives?
Cheers,
ED
TD#5 (#4)
Posted by: Rick Shade Location: Mobile, Al
Posted On 07:43AM 14-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNQXX*)

A large burst of convection this morning...and all day to heat up. The Hurricane discussion indicated there may be significant strengthening because of that....as well, the center will be an educated guess at the moment. I remember quite a few of these stalling...and then eventually making a move. If this one stalls...plenty of time to build into a serious threat..

Beryl? (#5)
Posted by: Richard B (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 08:42AM 14-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNQXPNVU*)

Well TD 5 now looks very impressive on ir imagery, with a large area of extremely intense convection. I expect this sytem to be upgraded to Tropical Storm Beryl today. I may think about extending the Tropical Storm Watch on my site south into Mexico. However i will wait to see how the system looks on visible imagery, and will also wait to see the latest forecast track from NHc before i do this.
I think that this system has the potential to reach hurricane intensity before making landfall, and if it continues to remain stationary then intensification may be rapid. With the large area of convection this system looks to me like it may be a heavy rain maker, and flooding may occur along the coast, especially if the storm tracks slowly!
I also see that the wave that moved off the african coast is looking very well organised and has potential to develop over the next day or two.
And finally Alberto, forecast to take a south then westward track.... could prove interesting as this would once again take him over warm SST's! Well we will have to watch closely to see what happens with him, but at least he looks set to spare the Azores Islands!
Any way gotta go. Take care all, especially if you are on the Texas coast!

System at 42 N. 63 W (#6)
Posted by: Bill
Posted On 10:38AM 14-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Whats this? It isn't the unnamed TS following Alberto (is it?), so where did this come from. It appears to be a nicely developed system with a central eye like void, I noticed it on the VIS this morning (Interactive GOES)?

IHS,

Bill
Mystery system (#7)
Posted by: Bill Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 10:42AM 14-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

The unnamed storm that started off the Ecoast is at @38/50, so this other swirl is a definite system. Thoughts?

IHS,

BIll


Looks like aST storm may be trying to wind up off Va this morning too. This is the system that contributed to the flooding in NJ, I believe.
Gulf Storms (#8)
Posted by: OrlandoDude Location: O-Town
Posted On 10:49AM 14-Aug-2000 with id (QRNRPNUXNVX*)

Just a word of caution, Gulf Storms are usually very unpredictable and the models, as well as, the NHC has difficulty in forecasting their path. While, I have do believe the NHC is issuing the most reasonable path, I believe everyone should keep at least one eye on this storm, just in case.
Thanks Orlando (#9)
Posted by: Pensacolian
Posted On 12:42PM 14-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNVW*)

Great Point
Show All Comments

Return to Central Florida Hurricane Center Main Page