CFHC Talkback For News Story #54:
Newest Talkback: 12:46 AM 07-29 EDT

TD#2 Forms in East of the Caribbean
10:54 PM EDT - 11 July 2001

This week will be interesting too. TD#2 has formed now. And will be tracked. The Caribbean should monitor this system. As for its future, it may have some trouble in the future, but I expect it to hold its own for a while. And probably will increase to Barry soon. Later on in the period it will run into windshear and most likely have problems. I expect it to skirt north of the islands, but they will need to watch it. Especially in the Northern Central Caribbean islands.
Formed 11.5N 43.9W

We'll be watching.

Caribbean Hurricane Page - Updates from the various Caribbean Islands.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
[NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.
Defiant Visible Infrared More...
Other commentary at: Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center - Accuweather's Joe Bastardi - SCOTTSVB's Hurricane Update Center - Jim Williams' Hurricane City - Gary Gray's Millennium Weather - Even More on our Links Page

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #11 (of 11 total)
Longitude (#1)
Posted by: Ed Dunham Location: Melbourne, FL
Posted On 12:33AM 12-Jul-2001 with id (VSNQVRNRRVNQYP*)

I'm sure having a heck of a time with the 03Z position of 43.9, especially sine the loops ending at 0345Z seem to put it at around 45.2. Using 43.9 at 03Z would have put the center of the low well to the east of the southerly inflow band. Maybe the IR is playing tricks on these tired old eyeballs - just seems to be a rather tight system which is further to the west. If it is further west already, then the long term movement will probably be more to the west northwest rather than the current almost northwesterly projection.
Cheers,
ED
prospects (blather about climatology) (#2)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Aiken, SC
Posted On 12:39AM 12-Jul-2001 with id (RPTNQQVNQVNQQV*)

something to watch finally. the new depression is a fairly strange sort, an early cape verde.. something that doesnt often happen. the majority of systems which develop in this region prior to august live short, messy lives, with the odd exception (remember 1996?). i havent seen any model runs that pick td 2 up, most dont even show a wave in the area. just the nhc best track, which is believable enough. a southerly track would keep the system clear of shear for as long as possible, though it has already shown a wnw tendency (jj said it best). probably going to meet some pretty rough shear within 72-96 hrs on a wnw course.. nine out of ten systems in this area in july will shear out.. the climatology take on this storm is pretty bleak. these unusual systems USUALLY die without much fanfare. so, in other words, dont anybody make florida landfall predictions for the next three days. if you do, be prepared for ridicule.

anyhow, the thermocline shift (suggesting that el nino will start to show up as the summer goes on) has chipped away at the cool sst pool off ecuador since about may. the guy at intellicast.com, d'aleo, posted an article about it. he usually sees things coming; got a good eye for climate and knows lots of weather history. he got last winter right, it was like he read from a program and score sheet. should el nino manifest, it might put a cap on the october end of the season. and cause it to rain a lot this winter.
Re "Prospects" (#3)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 02:42AM 12-Jul-2001 with id (VTNQRNQPRNSV*)

I totally agree, Hank--the odds seem to be good that this will be a mild TS, at most. Climatology is indeed unfavorable--or at least, not ideal--for a system like this in early July. A "wait-and-see" attitude is the best bet, IMO.
TD#2 (#4)
Posted by: Mark Location: Cape Coral Florida
Posted On 08:17AM 12-Jul-2001 with id (QRNWWNQSSNRPX*)

This mourning TD#2 has shown little strengthening over night but the track has become more westerly than predicted last night. Circulation is still visible on satellite but thunderstorms have decreased over the last few hours. A few new kinks have also come up as with the future of TD#2. The models are having a hard time picking this system up and some models weaken this system over the next 24 hours. If TD#2 holds together and continues a more westerly track it may have a better chance to develope down the road with less shear expected. Models are taking the upper level low now north of Puerto Rico and filling it in over the next 48 hours allowing a ridge to build westward to 70 degrees west. If this developes the track should be more west than predicated and less shear would occur allowing for futher strengthening. So we need to see if this upper low does fill in to have a better chance on forecasting where TD#2 will go. Right now my bet is on a more westward track towards the northern islands thru Sunday. Beyond that I'm waiting to see if the models hold true on this upper low. Yesterday I thought this system would turn northwest away from the islands but now the northern islands need to watch this more closely. I give a 50/50 chance now and yesterday was more like a 25% chance.
Visible Pictures Show Some Shear (#5)
Posted by: Mark Location: Cape Coral Florida
Posted On 08:47AM 12-Jul-2001 with id (QRNWWNQSSNRPX*)

First visible pictures this morning show a east-southeasterly shear still over the system which is why forward speed has increased to 18mph over night. Water temp. are still borderline for development. I feel as the system moves past 50 west both problems should subside allowing for futher development. Later today I think we will see T.S. Barry form. Forward speed should decrease and warmer waters should help thunderstorm development.
TD#2 and its future (#6)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, FL
Posted On 09:14AM 12-Jul-2001 with id (RQVNSNQXRNQRY*)

Looking at the latest satellite images the thundersorm activity isn't as organized as it was last night and may stay that way for a little while longer or until it gets past 50w like Mark said in an ealier post. Because theres a bit less shear and water temps are also little warmer which may help the thunderstorm activity. Think we will have TS Barry later today or tonight when conditions are a bit better for the TD. As far as the future track goes a WNW track looks good for now but if it where to move more west I think this system would be in a better place for further development.
TD#2 and its future (#7)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, FL
Posted On 09:32AM 12-Jul-2001 with id (RQVNSNQXRNQRY*)

Looking at the latest satellite images the thundersorm activity isn't as organized as it was last night and may stay that way for a little while longer or until it gets past 50w like Mark said in an ealier post. Because theres a bit less shear and water temps are also little warmer which may help the thunderstorm activity. Think we will have TS Barry later today or tonight when conditions are a bit better for the TD. As far as the future track goes a WNW track looks good for now but if it where to move more west I think this system would be in a better place for further development.
Future (#8)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER) Location: tampa
Posted On 10:00AM 12-Jul-2001 with id (QRNWWNQSXNRQX*)

I say 3/10 chance for this to become a TS.
Also to Note even though a buoy reported
a strong SE wind, nothing should any west
winds of more than 10 mph. I expect this
to disolve during the next day or 2 or maybe
just hold its own. By Friday if its still
there then we'll look at things.

Western Caribean has a 1010mb low near honduras
but over land moving NW, looks decent and
has small chance to move NNW over water.
Test Post (#9)
Posted by: Mike
Posted On 11:14AM 28-Jul-2001 with id (VUNSSNQWNYW*)

Tes
Test Post (#10)
Posted by: Mike
Posted On 11:15AM 28-Jul-2001 with id (VUNSSNQWNYW*)

Test
test (#11)
Posted by: Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Cocoa
Posted On 08:46PM 28-Jul-2001 with id (VUNSSNQWNYW*)

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