CFHC Talkback For News Story #61:
Newest Talkback: 04:53 AM 08-20 EDT

TD#7 Forms East of Caribbean
04:57 PM EDT - 19 August 2000

It's forecast to go through the islands and wind up south of Puerto Rico in 72 hours. Folks in the Caribbean will have to deal with it in roughly three days or so. Any movement to the north would put it into Puerto Rico. Beyond that it is speculation, but a threat to Florida or the SE US is possible.

It could go south of Cuba or just south of the Bahamas. It it winds up north of Hispanola then watch out. Very important for us here to watch this too. It will become Debby later on.

More to come later...

Comments or Questions? Use the comment button by the story Headline.


StormCarib.com has reports from folks in the Caribbean islands themselves and is worth checking out when storms approach the Caribbean.
Ouragans.com Français -- L'information sur des ouragans comprenant beaucoup de liens.
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.
Nice Satellite Image of Atlantic (IR Colorized)

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #13 (of 13 total)
TD#7 (#1)
Posted by: Richard Byett (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 05:10PM 19-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNTQNQQU*)

Well it has happened, they have finally upgraded the wave to TD7. It looks as if they will be upgrading it to a TS in 12 hours, and a Hurricane in 48 hours. This one looks like it could do some real damage! An 'Extended Watch' is in effect on my site for all islands from and including St. Vincent and Barbados, north to the Virgin Islands. I anticipate upgrading this to a Tropical Storm Watch at least, for some islands tomorrow. My gut tells me i should do this now, but as it is still 900 miles away it is really too early. Beside by tomoro the track may become a little more clearer. The heading would take it through Dominica and Martinique probably early Tuesday, as a Hurricane. All person in the area should monitor this system closely. Start preparations now, check batteries, flash lights, shutters, etc.
After the storm enters the Caribbean, it is anyones guess as to where she will go. I think probably towards Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, and the Bahamas, eventually reaching the SE US. But this is just a guess.
Anyways, all take care.
Gulf??? (#2)
Posted by: Jodi
Posted On 05:29PM 19-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNXR*)

I know everyone is concentrating on the storms in the Atlantic right now (as we should be), but I need to know if anyone can tell me what is that in the Gulf right now? Its right below the Fla panhandle. Is there something brewing? It looks pretty angry right now. I was just wondering if someone could explain what I'm seeing. Thanks a bunch!!
Gulf (#3)
Posted by: Mary Location: LAkeland
Posted On 05:32PM 19-Aug-2000 with id (QRNWWNQVRNQPP*)

The convection you are seeing in the Gulf right now is at the tip of a trough. It is not of any danger now but if it persists, it could reasonably be expected to form a low level circulation. The main thing right now is that it is just a large thunderstorm or collection of thunderstorms.
HURRICANE DEBBIE 48 HOURS (#4)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 05:37PM 19-Aug-2000 with id (QRNWWNQXPNXU*)

Hello All,
Well with TD#7 now present I still need to talk about Chris. I know TD#7 is impressive but don't forget whats closer. There is still a chance Chris will redevelope tommorow and head towards the Bahama's. So noone let there eye's wonder too much. Chris still is a threat just not as much as yesterday. If Chris does reform we could still have a hurricane in time before it gets close to the Bahama's if it gets that far.
Now TD#7 is looking very impressive with banding on almost all sides of the system. Conditions are very favorable for rapid strengthening so the islands of Barbados, St. Lucia, northward and westward to Hati should keep close eye on this one and start getting prepared now. Long range forecasts put Debbie between Jamaica and the southern Bahama's in 5-6 days. THIS IS TOO EARLY TO FORECAST AND THIS COULD BE A MAJOR HURRICANE SO EVERYONE NEEDS TO GET PREPARED NOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. AS FOR THE U.S. JUST WATCH AND WAIT BECAUSE BY MID TO LATE THIS WEEK WE MAY ALSO NEED TO GET PREPARRED ABOUT DEBBIE IN FLORIDA.
Thanks Mary (#5)
Posted by: Jodi
Posted On 05:43PM 19-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNXR*)

Thanks for explaining!!! Any chance that moisture could head this way (Upper Texas Coast)?? We need it sooooo bad!! Just nothing in the form of a hurricane, ya know?? A nice WET tropical system would do wonders!! Ciao!
Gulf Convective Cell (#6)
Posted by: Richard Byett (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 06:24PM 19-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNQXQNSP*)

I too noticed the small area of convection in the gulf earlier. It moved of the florida coast this morning, and has been producing some very heavy rains according to radar imagery. The cell is moving west or southwest, and is maintaining a good identity. There are some small indications that it has begun to develop a feeder band to the north and west of itself. However this is such a small system, and it may or may not develop. It will bear watching however, considering it crept up on us.
And TD 7 still looks good. Will strike the Lesser Antilles early Tuesday i expect. But most of whayt i have to say is in my posting above. I just wanted to point out the Gulf of Mexico Convective Cell.
TD # 7.. Looking stronger by the hour ! (#7)
Posted by: brian
Posted On 07:03PM 19-Aug-2000 with id (RPYNXVNQSNRP*)

Tropical depression 7, is looking better with each passing hour.. My prediction will be that this may be the big one for this years season even. It has an enourmous surface circulation center. It has near perfect upper level conditions for rapid strengthening.. Also, given the low latutude that its in now and expected to continue in, the SST's are very warm in and ahead of the system..I think its only a formality that this system will be quickly upgraded to storm status very soon. The only thing i saw going against it was there was some dry air ahead of the sytem, but i suspect that could change in the next few days, as its very large circulation takes over the environment ahead of it ! I think this is really one to watch for residents in the carribean, and possibly the SE. Us ..
Look Also to the NW Caribbean!!! (#8)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 07:47PM 19-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNQVT*)

Ok, I think the quiet time is over...I noticed a lot of things out there today..and one thing I just picked up on was a broad area of convection right around the area of Honduras...it is a large area of convection..nothing on it right now, but I did see yesterday in the Recon flights that they were thinking of investigating something in the Gulf...or is G-IV a NOAA plane? Anyway, it looks like Mother Nature is waking up with a huge dose of PMS (and I can say this because I am a WOMAN!!) and she looks ready to kick some butt!!
Everyone from (#9)
Posted by: Noel
Posted On 08:08PM 19-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNQXQ*)

Texas to Florida East coast better watch TD #7, could pull a Georges.
chris and debbie (#10)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn,com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER)
Posted On 10:40PM 19-Aug-2000 with id (VSNRSNQXYNSR*)

Ive not updated my page too much folks cause i want to give everyone my best bets on what will happen to the tropical systems without the guessing.
Now on a quick note on old Chris,,he should continue on his wnw track and get pulled up towards the northeastern Bahamas by late monday. He could have a chance to become better orgainzed as a Ridge starts forming east of the Bahamas on Monday night through the week almost,,this could be a small threat from central florida up to the Carolinas...as a WNW path should remain up to landfall. I don't feel that the conditions are right for him to become a hurricane at this time,,though if he does become better orgainezed sunday,,he could be reclassified.
Now with the more important feature,,,Debbie should be named on Sunday,,but goes winds already show it named and I am posting this before the 11pm advisory. This is a very dangerous system for everyone to watch. The exact track is tricky in the beginning and at the end of the 5 day cycle. For 1 imagery shows Debbie? closer to 13.5N and 46W. A bit more ne of the NHC position and a WNW path and by 295dg motion. This path should continue if it's already doing it. So debbie might do the usuall brush along the NE islands of the carribean and move 100miles north of Puerto Rico by Tuesday. If landfall happens and a 280dg motion,,then he will pass through the NE islands and near Puerto Rico,,the call will be made by sunday 11am ,,cause visible imagry will show the exact location,,then a continued W or WNW path should continue until Thurs when another strong trough should move off the east coast and pull her NW and NNW by later that day into Fri. Now that is the key,,for 1 where is the initial motionand postion of debbie now to see where she will be by Tuesday,,and by thursday then where will she be before the turn? My quick thoughts is that she will pass alng to just NE of the islands and just pass north of Puerto Rico,giving them winds and rain,,then by Thursday morning be between the north coast of Cuba to east of SanSalvador,,but lets just see where she starts out from tomorrow
Final Comment before update (#11)
Posted by: Debbie(y) Location: PSJ, Florida
Posted On 10:42PM 19-Aug-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRUNY*)

Mike or John,

When will all the local news hype begin with this TD #7/Debby?
Coordinates for Debby (#12)
Posted by: Ed Dunham Location: Melbourne, FL
Posted On 11:54PM 19-Aug-2000 with id (VSNQVRNRRVNQYR*)

Explosive development in the tropics sometimes catches the forecaster off guard because it doesn't happen too often - but thats exactly what has happened this evening. Debby is already at least a 50kt Tropical Storm. The center is under the CDO and it is moving to the west northwest at 15mph. Knowing the personalities at NHC helps a little, but its going to still be a bit un-nerving if this system develops an eye before its ever classified as a TS. Having forecasted these things for over 35 years, I think I've got a fair handle on the past positions (which could be off a little - IR is still a tough image to work with). Here are my best track estimates - wind speed in knots:
19/00Z 11.0 40.0 15 1010
19/06Z 11.5 41.0 20 1009
19/12Z 12.0 42.0 25 1008
19/18Z 12.5 43.0 30 1006
19/21Z 12.7 43.8 35 1004
20/00Z 13.0 44.5 40 1001
20/03Z 13.3 45.2 50 998

and for Chris:
19/12Z 19.5 59.5 35 1009
19/15Z 19.8 60.5 30 1010
19/18Z 20.0 61.5 25 1010
19/21Z 20.1 62.0 25 1010
20/00Z 20.2 62.6 25 1009
20/03Z 20.1 63.2 25 1009

Chris still needs to be monitored closely - redevelopment is still quite likely. Chris may well turn out to be a 'dry run' for Florida on Tuesday with the real exercise taking place next weekend. We may even be watching Ernesto before the week is over - whatever happened to that quiet period!?!
Cheers,
ED
get psyched (#13)
Posted by: Frank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 12:53AM 20-Aug-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNRS*)

take a day to move to college and look what finally goes off. well, chris puked out for now, but td 7/incipient debby is in a pretty menacing position. exactly which islands are at the greatest threat should be more clear tomorrow when recon fixes what will be debby exactly. ed's explanation of the apparent rapid intensification seems quite feasible. wonder when the eye will peek at us.. say a bit after noon tomorrow? could be lots of trouble down the road for florida if it skims the northern caribbean. oughta be a suspenseful week around here. wonder what tune we'll be singing on thursday...
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