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CFHC Talkback For News Story #70: Newest Talkback: 04:55 AM 08-24 EDT

Debby Weakens Temporarily
11:08 AM EDT - 23 August 2000

5PM Update:

The NHC lowered windspeed to 50MPH, but Debby is still not looking good at all. If it goes into Cuba I doubt it can survive. The other choices are going north or south of Cuba, and that's about a 50/50 shot for either. Debby did the unexpected, will the unexpected happen again?

1PM Update:

Mandatory Evacuation Ordered for all non-Florida Keys residents in the Florida Keys effective at Noon Today

Debby is encountering more sheer and land effects, and isn't looking as good as it did before. The center of cirulation is on the west side of the convection, so it is having trouble again. Debby looks like it won't restrengthen until tomorrow. This is an unexpected twist in the story of Debby (or at least, I didn't expect this) and the storm may wind up repositioning itself to survive, if it survives. Thanks Steve H. & Brian for bringing this to our attention.

Alberto has become Extratropical as well and is no longer being tracked.

Original Update:

Due to some interaction with Hispaniola and a bit of shear Debby went down to Tropical Storm this morning. A strong tropical storm. It should rebound later tonight and tomorrow when it moves away from Hispaniola and strengthen. The southern inflow is being affected by the mountains there.

The current NHC forecast track takes it up South Florida (over Key Largo) over Florida toward the core of the state to the western side with a hint of a northerly turn. This could be shifted left or right more later... So the Keys must take it seriously too.

There are some indications that Debby may slow forward motion too, so it looks Friday Night- Saturday timeframe for landfall at the moment.

Several Models put it into the Gulf, including the MRF, which means folks in the panhandle, Alabama, etc. will want to watch it too.

Still a lot of speculation. It still could go into the Gulf, but the South Florida scenario is still more likely. (Getting to be 50/50 chance wise). Still a lot up in the air.

We are tentively scheduling a chat at 7PM tonight lasting for as long as we feel the need. Jim Williams at Hurricane City will be doing another live broadcast at 8PM.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Debby (Good Forecast Track Graphic)

Ouragans.com Français -- L'information sur des ouragans comprenant beaucoup de liens.
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.

Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports
Weathervine Storm Intercept Team's Audio and Video broadcasts
Live Webcam image from Florida Emergency Management's Emergency Operations Center
Florida Emergency Management Activation Page / Situation Updates
Nice Satellite Image of Atlantic (IR Colorized)

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #44 - #64 (of 64 total)

Interesting forecast (#44)
Posted by: Jim Mogle Location: Kissimmee, Fl
Posted On 05:01PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNRTRNRRXNW*)

I'm not too sure the current strength isn't overstated. I find myself wondering if the storm can survive a trip over Cuba.

Confusion? (#45)
Posted by: Randy Location: Charleston.SC
Posted On 05:06PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (TNTXNQTXNQVQ*)

I didn't see much of Debby left as far as her LLCC was concerned on recent sat pics. However, a quick glimpse to the NE shows definite rotation, and to look at the flare up over the DR mountains, that convection appears to be moving toward this "New" circulation. I'm not educated, but does it appear that way to anyone else? And if this did occur with the circulation still associated with Debby, would we end up with another named storm?

New LLCC? (#46)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 05:15PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNTS*)

I just looked at the most recent NRL visible and the area that Mike C. was pointing to as a possible new LLCC is impressive..you can now see right down to the surface of the ocean on this...maybe that is why the probabilities went up this last advisory...anyone else see it? Please tell me I am not seeing things!!!

NRL image (#47)
Posted by: mark Location: new orleans
Posted On 05:20PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (SXNSQNQTYNQWS*)

what is the address for the NRL latest?

center (#48)
Posted by: jimmy
Posted On 05:23PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RQVNWWNQUWNR*)

it looks to me like the center is directly over the center oh haiti right now and the new convection is rotating on the east side to the north. could be making a southwest jog.

other center (#49)
Posted by: jimmy
Posted On 05:32PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RQVNWWNQUWNR*)

are you guys talking about the thing at about 71.4 69.9? That does look interesting

Jimmy (#50)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 05:45PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNQUT*)

Yes, that's what I was talking about...I think the link is under "storm links" here, under Eric Blake's Weather Page or something like that, than hit NRL Monteray satellite pictures, and it should bring up the latest one, which is the one I am referring to....hope that helps!!! Colleen

no other center (#51)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER)
Posted On 06:16PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (VSNQQNQVTNQVW*)

winds are divergent in that area in the mid levels,,the main low level circulation is just n of porto prince Haiti,,moving slightly s of due west,,she should possibly move just south of the cuba coast and sustain herself later or even slowly drop the preessure a few mb's....so the other circulation is nopt note worthy
scottsvb

Hurricane Hunters (#52)
Posted by: Cathy Location: Bartow, FL
Posted On 06:22PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNQWX*)

Channel 8 out of Tampa stated that NOAA Hurricane Hunters going out at 9pm for 6 hours. 11:00 news will have the data.

What is making the storm move south? Not following this part at all.

Local News said.... (#53)
Posted by: Noel
Posted On 06:35PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNQTU*)

Miami on up to Louisiana better watch this weekend. The track is changing.

My thoughts on the models troubles (#54)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 06:37PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (QYYNRRWNRPNQVT*)

i belive one reason for this years troubling predictions the over all setup this year is diffrent from the past "30 - 40 years from what ive heard some places" , and lots of models use past climatological data to help predict storm pathes and with the models surrounded bye past data that is overall diffrent from this year their getting serously screwed up

Debby (#55)
Posted by: Joe Location: Tampa
Posted On 06:40PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RQVNSNQXRNYT*)

The track keeps moving further and further to the
Left.The 72 hour forecast shows it off shore of
Fort Myers.Last night they thought it would be near Miami in 72 hours.I'am not to sure where its
going to go.The National Weather Service in Tampa
says there could be some rain and Wind by Late
Friday and into the Weekend.I think it could even
weekend to a Tropical Depression.We will see.

Joe

Dennis,,Floyd -- Debby,,Florence (#56)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 06:42PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (QYYNRRWNRPNQVT*)

think about now, wouldent that be ironic huh?

check this out (#57)
Posted by: richard
Posted On 07:13PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RPYNRUUNUNQSX*)

here is something you guys might find interesting.go to the FNMOC wave forecast at "surfinfo.com".it tracks wave sizes over a 144 hr period based on the navy forecasts.surfinfo just brings it down so the average surfer can understand it.anyhow you can follow these storms potential track using this charts and last year i noticed that when everyone,including the NHC was trying to figure out where a storm was going they kind of stuck with their original prediction and it turned out to be right in the end.floyd was a good example of this.floyd followed the exact path they were showing 96 hours before the storm passed by florida.of course they are always tweaking it a bit like everyone else does with these models but i began following debby on their charts since like sunday and they have not waivered on the prediction that this storm is going through the florida sraits and then into the gulf of mexico.they have changed where it will end up once it is in the gulf though.according to wave size they show an intensifying storm once it is in there and ending up in the louisiana to florida panhandle area.i know this is a bit simplistic but we surfers need it that way.anyway,check it out.

Some Comments (#58)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 07:18PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYTNQXS*)

I agree with Frank...Debby looks like a deader for now. While I agree that it might pull a "Frederic" or "Claudette" (same year), the odds seem to be against it, regardless of the possibilities. No way that LLCC could survive a trip over Cuba.

Rick brings up an interesting point...he says that if Debby were a depression, we'd be saying that if it just got over water it would reintensify, so what's the diff? My answer is that it takes a lot more than warm water to get a storm, let alone a hurricane, really going.

So, I'd say keep an "eye" on it, but unless a *dramatic* turnaround happens, Debby's probably on her way out.

Circulations (#59)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 07:19PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (QYYNRRWNRPNQVT*)

latest sat i can pick out several circulations and some other possible ones, one south of cuba over open water, another dissapating over north hati, one possible but doubt it NE of DR,and one more SE of DR but its interesting to see the knew LLCC south of cuba and west of central DR

correction (#60)
Posted by: richard
Posted On 07:26PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RPYNRUUNUNQSX*)

opps,i just checked the wave chart again and and at this point it looks like they have it headed more towards the louisiana -north texas coast 144 hours out.course i know that can change.

Hahaaha LOL (#61)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 07:32PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (QYYNRRWNRPNQVT*)

Debby does Dallas

All this tells me one thing (#62)
Posted by: Terry
Posted On 08:19PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRTNSR*)

We are not a smart as we think we are. We as a people have a lot to learn about Mother Nature.

Debby is Dead!

South Florida Major Hurricane Climatology (#63)
Posted by: Perry Williams (http://N/A) Location: Douglasville, Georgia
Posted On 08:25PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RPYNRTPNRRPNRRP*)

During the 120 year period of hurricane data from 1880-1999---ONLY four major hurricanes have made landfall in Southern Florida in the month of August---In 1880 between Cocoa Beach and Vero Beach; August 14, 1888 in Dade County; August 26, 1949 near Palm Beach; and of course Andrew eight years ago tomorrow--four in 120 years makes it almost rare (Cleo in Aug. 1964 was ALMOST a Cat 3--90 kt/ 967 mb).
Both September (13..last Betsy in 1965) and October (5...last King in 1950) are more likely--climatologically--in South Florida.
In August--for the period 1900-1999--the most likely US states for major landfalling August hurricanes were Texas and North Carolina).
As for Debby--I'd give her a 50/50 chance of survival--BUT if she stays alive and passes south of Cuba--as several models are indicating--she could regenerate (ala Frederic)--and present a serious threat to the Gulf Coast in a few days!

Standing By Prediction (#64)
Posted by: Brian Location: Hollywood, Florida
Posted On 12:55AM 24-Aug-2000 with id (QSWNURNRPPNX*)

At 1:00 p.m. yesterday, August 23, I claimed "If a new eye wall does not fall to sea level from the upper and mid level rotation, I believe we may be dealing with a strong depression or weak T.S. by morning." Good night from South Florida, and best of luck to all those from Galveston to Pensacola...I think Camille's sister is coming :(

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