CFHC Talkback For News Story #72:
Newest Talkback: 01:40 PM 08-25 EDT

Debby Dissipates
10:54 AM EDT - 24 August 2000

Debby's last advisory was issued at 11PM. There is no longer a closed circulation so it is been downgraded to a mere tropical wave. The outside chance for regeneration remains, but for the moment there are no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic.

A far cry from yesterday morning, for sure. But good news for folks on the East Coast of Floida.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Debby (Good Forecast Track Graphic)


Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #27 (of 27 total)
regenerate (#1)
Posted by: jimmy
Posted On 12:26PM 24-Aug-2000 with id (RQVNWWNQUWNR*)

what is the probability of Debby regenerated. Just everyon'e estimate.
Debby and regeneration (#2)
Posted by: Richard Byett (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 12:43PM 24-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNQXTNWV*)

Well the 06:00 run of the GDFL model predicted Debby would degenerate into an open wave by 12:00, and it has proved true! The same run predicts that Debby will be a strong TS in 48 hours, and be a hurricane by the time it skirts the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula within 72 hours. I would be inclined to agree with the model on the regeneration of Debby. it is interesting to note that although technically not a tropical storm the remnants of Debby are still supporting Tropical Storm force winds. I would not be surprised to see a new centre develop in the strong area of convection currently located in the area of Jamaica. Jamaica is the last major landmass that will affect Debby from regenerating for the next couple of days. Therefore i think we will see her upgraded to a TS within the next 48 hours if not sooner.
Bad Little Debby! (#3)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 12:50PM 24-Aug-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

Just when She started looking good this morning Debby got up and ran away again! The LLCC left her convection behind. However, despite the Recon's not finding an LLCC, it's evidnet to me again at about 20N/77+ W and appears to be moving a tad to the north (see latest NRL vis closeup loop). As Richard stated, the models (some) do have her reintensifying tomorrow sometime late. I do believe that she will still end up in the SE gulf. Let's see what the 12Z runs say, but I do se an LLCC. Cheers!
wave (#4)
Posted by: Collin
Posted On 01:08PM 24-Aug-2000 with id (RPWNQVNUPNRW*)

Anyone have any feelings on the potential development of the wave in the Eastern Atlantic? What are the models saying?
Is the center N of Jamaica? (#5)
Posted by: Rick Location: Mobile, Al
Posted On 01:43PM 24-Aug-2000 with id (RPYNQRNVYNQXX*)

I see a possible llc just north of Jamaica. Anyone else see a center trying to form exactly offshore north of this island? ...maybe a pro out there can have a look...I used a visible satellite loop over the last 8 hours...

Regeneration.... (#6)
Posted by: Jim Mogle Location: Kissimmee, Fl
Posted On 01:49PM 24-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNRTRNRRXNW*)

will take a while. It still appears that the level of shear is high enough to inhibit any organization until it gets about two thirds of the way along Cuba.
Debby will organise (#7)
Posted by: Richard Byett (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 02:06PM 24-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNQXTNWV*)

Well that is what i think. she has been trying to form a centre off shore from Jamaica for the passed few hours. Convection is good too. i think that when the apparent centre clears Jamaica we will see her restrengthen back to a TS, possibly by tomoro afternoon/evenig.
Where will Debbie Go? (#8)
Posted by: william winn
Posted On 02:41PM 24-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNRTUNVQNWU*)

Does anyone have any suggestions on where, they think Debbie might go, if she does regenerate once entering the gulf?
Debby (#9)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 02:49PM 24-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNQUW*)

Maybe I am missing something, but I don't see anything...of course, my eyes could be tired from reading all week! I did notice that tropical wave at about 18n45w that definitely looks like it definitely has a good rotation to it and it also appears that the LLCC is trying to close itself off the last few loops....good banding on eastern side...buy hey, what do I know anymore
Debby Remnants (#10)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 02:50PM 24-Aug-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

Guess what folks, it appears that what's left of Debby is now maiking a beeline north over central Cuba right now, like Mike Anderson said in his early morning post. Wouldn't it be ironic if she emerged off the north Cuba coast, strengthened, and ended up almost where they said she was going originally? This is what my eyes are seeing at the 18:15 Z loop. Anyone else see this? Maybe I've been looking at the tube too long today. Cheers!
debby is gone for now (#11)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER)
Posted On 03:18PM 24-Aug-2000 with id (VSNRSNQXYNRRR*)

Debby is not over Cuba,,but piece of her are just south of there and will take a couple days to regenerate,,,if at all,,,if so a west movement toward the Yucitan will continue,,,,,colleen the area of weak low pressure out there will move nnw and be nowhere near any threat,,,elswhere TD dev is not expect for 3 days at least.
Slow season so far,,,,,,,,,,
Clarification, Scott (#12)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 03:32PM 24-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNSV*)

Scott, first of all, I appreciate your comments. I would like to tell you something. I NEVER said that the tropical wave would be a threat to anyone, just that it was an interesting feature to watch. Secondly, the NHC says for NOW that it is moving W at 10knts. That may change in the future...I was just reporting on what I read and saw with my own eyes. And so was Steve.
SLOW SEASON!! (#13)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 03:39PM 24-Aug-2000 with id (QYYNRRWNQSQNQVU*)

well if this year was a slow season then so was last season. we were only up to Dennis last year at about this same time and we are only to Debby now so i dont believe its slow at ll and we have had 3TD's form and one or two possible TS's that were not named
Debbie, slow season, etc. (#14)
Posted by: Bill Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 03:40PM 24-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Hi all-

As indicated yesterday, Debbie dissipated. I don't think she is going to come back, just too much shear. Maybe, maybe, whatever is left will get into the GOM or BOC and make a run at it.

Slow season! We have had 4 named storms all in August, 2 of which were hurricanes, one a major and a long lived one at that. Plus two depressions before that (maybe more), and we still have a week to go in August. NOT a slow season! A generally weird and wimpy one so far, yes, with a messed up atmospheric circulation, but the 'worst' is yet to come, we are just warming up here! Looks like the waters are not going to get muvch better off Africa, so the storms may move more west before developing, and pose greater landfall threats. We will see!

IHS,

Bill
North or west? (#15)
Posted by: Richard Byett (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 04:01PM 24-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNQWRNQQX*)

Well the remnant of debby are falling apart! but are they heading nortjh or west? Personally i think that they are still moving in a general west direction, but as she falls apart it may be that some of the convection is heading north. Time will tell, but i dont expect a northward turn just yet.
This Has Not Been A Slow Season (#16)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:10PM 24-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNSV*)

We are on are 4th named Storm, which was our 2nd Hurricane, and 7 td's. So I dare say that this is not a slow season at all....after all, it just started 3 months ago.
Convective flare up (#17)
Posted by: Richard Byett (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 04:48PM 24-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNTQNQXS*)

Has anyone noticed the convection that has flared up just off the northern Cuban coast, just off shore from Banes? It has only come up over the past hour or so. Could be that the centre has reorganised north of the previous location. What does anyone alse think?

I was noticing that convection. (#18)
Posted by: Jim Mogle Location: Kissimmee, Fl
Posted On 05:17PM 24-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNRTRNRRXNSQ*)

It is in an area that is closer to being out of the shear. While there isn't a center of circulation anywhere, if that complex can grow and organize, it may be the place to best watch for reorganization. I'm still not too sure it will happen. However, what has happened has been in line with most of the models for the past 12 hours.
NOTHING WOULD SURPRISE ME NOW!!! (#19)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 05:29PM 24-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNRR*)

Richard,Jim: I noticed it too, although I am seeing it I don't know what it is. To tell you the truth, nothing would surprise me now. Expect to see Bill Clinton resign, Al Gore give up his election run, Fidel Castro jump out of a cake and say "SURPRISE!!! You can have Elian back Marisylesis!! and Cuba is now a democracy!!!" Just trying to inject a little humor here...it never hurts....Colleen
NOTHING WOULD SURPRISE ME NOW!!! (#20)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 05:29PM 24-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNRR*)

Richard,Jim: I noticed it too, although I am seeing it I don't know what it is. To tell you the truth, nothing would surprise me now. Expect to see Bill Clinton resign, Al Gore give up his election run, Fidel Castro jump out of a cake and say "SURPRISE!!! You can have Elian back Marisylesis!! and Cuba is now a democracy!!!" Just trying to inject a little humor here...it never hurts....Colleen
Nothing would surprise me now!! (#21)
Posted by: Bruce Location: Palm Bay Florida
Posted On 05:34PM 24-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNQUX*)

Good one Colleen!! :)
colleen (#22)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER)
Posted On 06:40PM 24-Aug-2000 with id (VSNRSNQXYNRU*)

Colleen never ment anything harsh towards you,,,but you seem to be jumping on my wagon,,on everything i said in your next 3 posts. The NHC says that wave is going nw and going to go NNW and be nothing to talk about,,that is all I said to you ,,nothing to cut down on you,,,but i do like many others feel its been a slow season in the aspects. Also i said nothing about steve,,just gave my opinion like everyone else does on certain features that everyone talks about,,,so if you feel that there is something that i don't see then feel free to make a comment,,these are free to say what we feel will happen.
Locations (#23)
Posted by: Ed Dunham Location: Melbourne, FL
Posted On 09:24PM 24-Aug-2000 with id (VSNQVRNRRVNQXR*)

The wave which was anchored near 18N 45W was sheared rather significantly and the cloud shield was carried off to the north (sounds almost like a broken record this year), but the circulation center, now barely recognizable, has been moving due west for the past 12 hours. Sometimes NHC will describe something in a way that favors public understanding rather than synoptic reality - not always, but sometimes. This wave looks like its just about had it - at least for a couple of days. Here are some satellite-derived past positions...
24/00Z 17N 43W
06Z 17.5N 44W
12Z 18N 45W
18Z 18N 46.5W
25/00Z 18N 48W

The debris of Debby is not north of Cuba, it is centered west southwest of Jamaica (again, barely recognizable) and the weak centerpoint (and thats a stretch to call it that anymore) has been moving to the southwest today. Positions...
12Z 19.5N 77W
15Z 19.0N 78W
18Z 18.5N 79W
21Z 18.0N 79.5W
00Z 17.5N 80W

Unless the remnants are starting a cyclonic loop (not impossible, but not likely), Debby is finished. As to the season in general, August already has been rather busy, but given the state of the upper atmosphere, I wonder if we are now in our most active month this year? This season was expected to have an early start (credits to La Nina), but it was also expected to have an earlier finish - circa mid October - the next couple of months will certainly give us the answer. Sometimes tropical cyclones are easy to forecast, but most of the time they are not in this inexact science. If you want a challenging occupation, this is certainly one to be in! There has been some excellent thought-provoking dialogue on this site over the last couple of days.
Thanks,
ED
To Scott (#24)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 10:56PM 24-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPVNQYV*)

First of all, let me say this in response to your post to me earlier today, and I will not mince words tonight with this post. I am not "jumping on your bandwagon", Scott. I am simply saying that you have a way with words that are condescending and insulting to people. You may want to go back through previous posts you replied to and re-read them. I think you get a little frustrated when people don't see things exactly the way you want them to see them. Unlike you, except for one or two that post here, we do not have "degrees in meteorology"..and of the ones that post here, they never talk to us the way you do...my earlier post about the tropical wave at 18N/45W moving to the west at 10 mph was taken (and printed by me) from the official NHC Tropical Weather Discussion. You insulted me by saying I was seeing "nothing" because I WAS seeing something, and they mentioned it on TWC, as a matter of fact. I would love to be a meteorologist, maybe you can give me the name of the school you went to, the professors you had and I can take a go at it..that would be helpful. In the meantime, I would advise you to be careful how you word your postings, because they way you do now keeps me away from this site more often than not. A note to Mike and John C: sorry for this venting, but I get to a point where enough is enough. If you would prefer me to not come back, that is fine. I just told it like it is, and I will not apologize for saying what I said. Think it over Scott, re-read your posts. Sorry if you don't like it, too bad. I say it the way I see it...end of story.
keep this forum open...no comments, either way (#25)
Posted by: Rick Shade Location: Mobile
Posted On 11:22PM 24-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNQYY*)

In order for us to have "fun" on this forum...we must remember that degrees or not..no one can predict what these things will do with certainty. We may have a feeling, and in many cases the experts will be right, but there is no need to try to win arguments or go against what someone is seeing. Just report things as you see them, and have fun. Feelings shouldn't be hurt. We are talking about a storm, that when it does develop, can kill people and change lives. Let's not put our puny egos in the middle of it. Have fun, give us your knowledge, but leave arguments and attempts to outdo one another...etc...out of the way...

this is an excellent site...more will happen this year...you can be sure of that.
Rick (#26)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 11:34PM 24-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNQUX*)

My post to Scott was not about "puny arguments" it was about the way he talks to people. Like I said, I call it as I see it, and today was it...sorry.
Email/Messages/Posting Subjective (#27)
Posted by: OrlandoDude Location: O-Town
Posted On 09:40AM 25-Aug-2000 with id (QYRNQRXNQVWNVX*)

Please keep in mind that while we attempt to create conversation by posting to boards, email, etc. conversations/messages in print cannot replace vocal communication. Since we can only interpret a message with "assumed" inflection, messages that may not be intended to sound demeaning or cert, could be can be interpreted as such. We all should try to be aware that our words may be interpreted incorrectly, or that we may be interpreting other people's messages incorrectly. Do not take things personally, or as the cliché goes.. Don't fret the small stuff...
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