CFHC Talkback For News Story #74:
Newest Talkback: 09:16 PM 08-28 EDT

Activity Southeast of Florida
08:36 AM EDT - 28 August 2000

Not much happened over the weekend, but at the start of this week we have a system southeast of Florida that has a chance to develop a little. If it does expect a little wetness around Florida.

Other than this area, there isn't much going on. The wave in the Caribbean is getting sheared to death, and not surprisingly, Debby never came back from the dead.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Debby (Good Forecast Track Graphic)


Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

Show All Comments | Show Next 11 Comments
Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #11 (of 32 total)
Have the Pressures Dropped Anymore? (#1)
Posted by: Mary Location: Lakeland
Posted On 08:44AM 28-Aug-2000 with id (QRNWWNQVSNQQV*)

Those of you that have access to this information, it will be interesting to watch and see if the pressures drop anymore or if the system is too close to land to be anything more that low pressure.
Development soon? (#2)
Posted by: Richard (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 09:36AM 28-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNQXPNWV*)

Well the models continue to develop the South Florida system, with the AVN taking it to just off the South Carolina coast in 72 hours, the Nogaps and NGM taking it up the eastern Florida coast before moving inland over central Florida in 60 hours, and the MRF taking it into the Georgia/South Carolina coast in 72 hours. I notice that NHC are now paying attention to this area also, indicating that development is possible within the next day or two. The convection remains moderate to strong within much of this system, and being over warm SST's it could well develop if upper level winds become more favourable.
Models (#3)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 09:43AM 28-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNUX*)

Saw the models too, Richard...UKMET doesn't even have anything on these systems. AVN and NOGAPS both have completely different scenarios...even the NWS Forecasters in Florida are not putting much faith in these models at this time...trying to find pressure readings for both these areas.
Pressure Readings (#4)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 10:12AM 28-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNUX*)

Here is what I could find out from the NBDC:

#41009 - Near Cape Canaveral: Pressure 1014.7 (sorry forgot to write down wind speed)

#41010 - 120nm E of Cape Canaveral: Pressure: 1015.7, Wind Speed 19.4knts (22.31mph) Wind Gusts: 23.3knts (26.8 mph) NOTE: both of these stations reported Wave Steepness as VERY STEEP.

SANF1 - Sand Key, Florida: Pressure: 1013.7
Wind Speed: 14knts (16mph) Wind Gusts: 15knts (17mph)

This information was as of 9:00am..and I have one question: when they say "atmospheric pressure" is that the same as the pressure at sea level?

Thanks Colleen
Thanks (#5)
Posted by: Mary Location: Lakeland
Posted On 10:22AM 28-Aug-2000 with id (QRNWWNQVSNQQV*)

It sounds like the east coast is in for a blow no matter what develops. I don't know but it seems that they would indicate surface pressures if that is what they meant.
Re: Atmospheric Pressures (#6)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 10:56AM 28-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNUX*)

I guess what I was asking is that some of the barometers on the sites are not at sea level, for example, I believe the one in Sank Key FL is 6.4m about sea surface, and one is 36.6m above sea level..didn't know how/if that affects what the actual pressure is...does that make any sense?

Colleen
Pressures (#7)
Posted by: Bill
Posted On 11:02AM 28-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Hi Colleen-

Pressures are adjusted to sea-level. Looks like 3 lows cooking...one off C Canav, one off the Keys, and one starting in the Carib.

looks interesting!

IHS,

Bill
Thanks, Bill! (#8)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 11:50AM 28-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNQWV*)

Thank you so much for answering my question! It helped a great deal...
Low pressure (#9)
Posted by: Richard (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 11:50AM 28-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNSRNRPW*)

Well NHC have now declared the area of disturbed weather off the Central-east Florida Coast a low pressure area. It is still poorly organised, but convection is improving and there is the potential for development over the next 24-48 hours!

TWC (#10)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 11:58AM 28-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNQWV*)

As Mary noted on another board, TWC is now looking at this area seriously..however, they are not saying WHICH way it is going to go..strange, since it's so close, you would think they have some idea!!! Colleen
Re: low off MLB (#11)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 12:06PM 28-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Cranking up, more there than old TD 4 had (except one time maybe).

It appears to be mostly stationary, maybe making very small cycloid loops. It seems a little less 'tight' than it was this morning near the center, but convection is developing, some bands on the west and south.

Seems there is some of the dread SHEAR going on, wsw to ene...

The system off EYW is becoming elongated but still shows a definite rotation.

IHS,

Bill
Recon Invest (#12)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 12:18PM 28-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

FYI:

NOUS42 KNHC 281545
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT MON 28 AUG 2000
SUBJECT: THE TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
. VALID 29/1100Z AUG TO 30/1100Z AUG 2000
. TCPOD NUMBER......00-088
.
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
. 1. SUSPECT AREA
. A. 29/1800Z
. B. AFXXX 01XXA INVEST
. C. KBIX 29/1530Z
. D. 29.0N 79.0W
. E. KBIX
. F. 29/1700Z TO 29/2200Z
. G. SFC TO 10,000 FT
. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
. AT 30/1200Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.IHS,

Bill

Show All Comments | Show Next 11 Comments

Return to Central Florida Hurricane Center Main Page