CFHC Talkback For News Story #74:
Newest Talkback: 09:16 PM 08-28 EDT

Activity Southeast of Florida
08:36 AM EDT - 28 August 2000

Not much happened over the weekend, but at the start of this week we have a system southeast of Florida that has a chance to develop a little. If it does expect a little wetness around Florida.

Other than this area, there isn't much going on. The wave in the Caribbean is getting sheared to death, and not surprisingly, Debby never came back from the dead.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Debby (Good Forecast Track Graphic)


Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #12 - #32 (of 32 total)
Recon Invest (#12)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 12:18PM 28-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

FYI:

NOUS42 KNHC 281545
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT MON 28 AUG 2000
SUBJECT: THE TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
. VALID 29/1100Z AUG TO 30/1100Z AUG 2000
. TCPOD NUMBER......00-088
.
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
. 1. SUSPECT AREA
. A. 29/1800Z
. B. AFXXX 01XXA INVEST
. C. KBIX 29/1530Z
. D. 29.0N 79.0W
. E. KBIX
. F. 29/1700Z TO 29/2200Z
. G. SFC TO 10,000 FT
. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
. AT 30/1200Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.IHS,

Bill

TWC, Again (#13)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 12:25PM 28-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNQWV*)

Ok..the weekly forecast was just on, and from what I gathered, they have no idea where it's going..whether it goes north, or whether it gets pulled in to the SE coast. So much for that...but John Hope does seem concerned (unusually so) about this system..anyone know exactly how far off the coast this sucker is? 20? 10? 15? 100? Has it crossed the Gulfstream yet? Lots of questions, not a lot of answers from the pros.


Recon Info (#14)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 12:30PM 28-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNQWV*)

29.0N / 79.0 W is just about due east of Central Florida's East coast..which tells me that they are not expecting this thing to move very quickly at all. As for the models, has anyone seen any new ones?
LLCC? (#15)
Posted by: Richard (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 12:31PM 28-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNSRNRPW*)

Would you please look at this url:
http://www.intellicast.com/LocalWeather/World/UnitedStates/Southeast/Florida/Melbourne/VisibleSatelliteLoop/
and tell me what you think. I personaly think that a LLCC may be trying to form southeast of Cape Canaveral. The loop indicates a generally stationary, but developing, system. good convection to the south and east of the centre. Banding to the north. What are your opinions? By the way, models indicate a landfall within the area from Central Florida north to near North Carolina within 72 hours!
A Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert is in effect on my site at present, but depending on development may be upgraded!
Also interesting to see NHC preparing for 6 hourls fixes on the system! do they think it will develop
models (#16)
Posted by: Richard (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 12:40PM 28-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNSRNRPW*)

Latest (12:00z) AVN model indicates a movement to the east before returning west to bring the system off the Georgia coast in 72 hours.
A good link (#17)
Posted by: David Location: Brevard/PSJ
Posted On 12:52PM 28-Aug-2000 with id (RPYNQQTNRRPNRTW*)

Hi All,

Check out this link;
http://www.intellicast.com/LocalWeather/World/UnitedStates/Southeast/Florida/Miami/1kmStormWatchLoop/
Cool Link!' (#18)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 12:59PM 28-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNQWV*)

That was a cool link...I think it is trying to get better organized and John Hope just said they think it will move north and then move back in the midatlantic states...we will see.
Another good loop (#19)
Posted by: David Location: Brevard/PSJ
Posted On 01:01PM 28-Aug-2000 with id (RPYNQQTNRRPNRTW*)

Here is another good loop showing the circulation of the Central Florida Coast.


http://www.intellicast.com/LocalWeather/World/UnitedStates/Southeast/Florida/CapeCanaveral/1kmStormWatchLoop/


Hopefully we will get some much needed rain in the PSJ area.

weather bouys (#20)
Posted by: troy Location: titusville,fl
Posted On 01:05PM 28-Aug-2000 with id (VSNRTNQQSNTW*)

here are 2 links to the bouys off of the cape.
http://www.nws.fsu.edu/B/buoy?station=41009

http://www.nws.fsu.edu/B/buoy?station=41009

both of these report up to the hour sea level pressure as well as wind speed and wave heoghts.
check it out!
sat loop (#21)
Posted by: Frank Pellegrino Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 01:14PM 28-Aug-2000 with id (QRNQSNRTXNQR*)

still yet another good visible sat pix of the circulation... appears it might just have a extremely slow easterly movement to it, or it could be the shear effect on the pix....

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php3?region=TPA&isingle=multiple&itype=vis
Bouys (#22)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 01:21PM 28-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNQWV*)

41010 is 120nm east of Cape Canavarel:

as of 12:00pm: Wind Direction: SE; Wind Speed: 13.6 knts; Wind gusts 15.5 knts; Wave Heights 5.2 (at 11 they were 6ft). Pressure: 1015.7 and steady.

Earlier , the wind speed was higher, don't know what it means that it is slower, if it means anything at all.
E of Florida (#23)
Posted by: Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Newport News, VA
Posted On 01:23PM 28-Aug-2000 with id (RPVNRTVNRRPNRUP*)

Depends on how squally the weather is. I'm sure recon will tell more.
Pressures are Falling (#24)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 01:30PM 28-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNQWV*)

At 12:00pm, Buoy #41009 was at 1014.7; as of 1pm, pressure was at 1014.3 and falling.

Buoy 41010 was at 1015.7 at 12pm, at 1:00pm pressure was 1014.9 and falling.

Colleen
Buoy 41009 (#25)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 02:27PM 28-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNTW*)

Pressure down to 1013.8 at 2:oopm from 1014.3..if it keeps dropping at this rate, we may have TD#8 by 5 or 11 today. Couldn't get un updated report from Buoy 41010 yet. Did everyone fall alseep? Or I am boring you to death?? LOL!
still in the scrambler (#26)
Posted by: Frank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 02:36PM 28-Aug-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)

shear, subsidence, upper trough.. whatever is trying to spin up off florida still has a few hurdles to scale. after the avn and mrf repeatedly predicted debby's westward suicide run (the westward part anyway), theyve gained some immediate credibility to me.. forget what i think, nhc has gone and scheduled a recon. if the upper high does bridge over to the north and stamp out that area of subsidence with the weakening (?) upper trough in north florida.. we could have an interesting week. one of the trademarks of this season so far has been that every storm has had to deal with shear.. given the chaotic upper air state of the north atlantic basin right now, ill have more faith in this wannabe vortex when it stops having shear peel back the edges of the associated convection. until that stops there wont be any ernesto's creeping up on fl/ga/sc. as far back as august 10th or so, though i never posted it, i'd thought there would be SIX named storms this month.. now i dont think that guestimate of mine will verify. two storms in three days, with the atlantic in such a blender.. is a bit much to expect. might get ernesto in the next couple of days though.. take it easy everybody.
TD#8 soon? (#27)
Posted by: Richard (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 03:17PM 28-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNQXTNQUR*)

Well the disturbance off east florida looks really good on satellite imagery. there is definite evidence of a cyclonic circulation, and indications that a LLCC is trying to form. Bouy data continues to indicate falling SLP also. NHC are no running 'test' model predictions on this system, and with the recon flight now planned, they must feel it is quite a significant threat. It has got better organised since the last Outlook issued by them at 11:30am, and i would not be surprised to see it upgraded to TD#8 in the 5 or 11 update. But we will just have to wait and see. It appears to have taken a jog to the east, as some of the models indicated, but they also indicate it will then head back west, or north-west, landfalling later in the week somewhere between Central Florida and North Caroline. Will have to wait and see. Meanwhile a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert remains in effect on my site, which has just been updated.

Low off e fla coast (#28)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 03:35PM 28-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

As Frank said, the system has to defeat the shear monster first. There is subsidence (dry air) also coming down the Peninsula that could inhibit development. In the last few hours, the convection has definitely waned in the western semicircle.

The pressures may be falling, but mostly due to diurnal variation. This time of yr in the Florida latitudes and south, the normal diurnal variation results in the highest pressures around 10 am and 10pm, lowest 4am and 4pm (or thereabouts). If the pressures keep falling throughout the pm, then that will be interesting.

Pressure also falling around the skeletal low off EYW, may also be diurnal.

Finally, the glob in the NW Carib may be a plare after all..stay tuned!

IHS,

Bill
Pressures (#29)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 03:53PM 28-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPUNQY*)

Good point, Bill..we will have to wait and see...however, the pressure at buoy #41009 has now dropped down to 1012.6mb...so it has fallen 2mb in three hours. Something's going on out there, and NHC knows it...they were doing a test run on TD(AL9000) today and had the initial pressure at 1013. Will be interesting to see what happens...remember Debby?
Slow development, (#30)
Posted by: Jim Mogle Location: Kissimmee, Fl
Posted On 03:55PM 28-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNRTRNRRXNW*)

if any with that system. It is going to be hard for it to defeat that North/South Shear with all the dry air that brings in. Not sure if the shear will back down anytime soon. Looks like it has a bit of a circulation. Not sure if it can organize.
Interesting!!! (#31)
Posted by: Gerry Location: Venice Fl
Posted On 04:33PM 28-Aug-2000 with id (VSNRUNQPRNVV*)

Take a look latest radar loop out of Cape Caneveral. It is interesting. Some circulation.
Surface Low (#32)
Posted by: Ronn Raszetnik, Jr. Location: Largo, Florida
Posted On 05:16PM 28-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNQXR*)

At 4:00 P.M., Buoy 41010 is reporting a pressure of 29.92 In. or 1013 MB. Buoy 41009 is reporting a pressure of 29.90. Not really significant, considering the SLP here at my house is 29.88 In. If anything develops from this surface low, I suspect it will occur relatively slowly; however, WV imagery indicates a very hostile environment. Strong southwest wind shear will continue for the next 24 to 48 hours as a trough axis over central FL moves eastward. Strong subsidence behind the axis is being pulled down from the NW by an intense cyclone over eastern North Carolina. This subsidence is quickly encroaching upon the surface low east of Cape Canaveral, and IR imagery already indicates a wane in convection, as Bill noted above. This system will have it tough, and right now I'm doubting development.

God Bless,
Ronn Raszetnik, Jr.
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