CFHC Talkback For News Story #76:
Newest Talkback: 01:19 AM 09-01 EDT

August
08:59 AM EDT - 30 August 2000

I think we will not see any more named systems this month.

August was a strange montth for storms, and memorable for these reasons:

1. Alberto...
This one just hung around forever going to major hurricane status back to tropical storm and up again, did a loop and went out. It was a very long lived storm and the most interesting thing this month.

2. Beryl...
This was pretty much doomed from the start, its center was placed too far east of where it actually was, and therefore went into the Mexican coast way before any damage could have been done. Hurricane watches/warnings were put up as a precaution, but were never really needed.

3. Chris
Chris was the storm that more than a few jumped the gun on big time. Saying that it would affect Florida way way to early. When in fact, it died before even reaching the Caribbean due to shear. I never thought it would make it, but the next one gets the oddball of the decade award...

4. Debby
This one threw everyone for a loop, even those who said it would go into the gulf were wrong, all of us were wrong. It had the potential to me a mess for Florida, and winded up just going kaput north of Hispaniola never to recover. Head scratching, indeed, but definitely a small miracle that it did this.

I don't see anything happening this week as far as named storms go. I'm pretty much willing to write off the storm off the east coast, and if the one in the east Atlantic develops into a named storm, it won't be in August. So we go out of August almost as quietly as we went into it.

We've got a new
webcam: Barb & Wendy in Winter Springs have set one up.

Also Joseph Johnston in Mobile has redone his page and added a very nice collection of photos on Mobile, Alabama's hurricane history.

JimF has added some impressive lightning photos and Irene photos to his webcam page.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)


Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]


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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #13 (of 34 total)

On to your method! (#1)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 10:01AM 30-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)


Aha, brothers C-

I see a method in your madness! You say no system will develop anytime soon, and then one develops!

Seriously, looks like we have a td in the EastLant, altho a bit skinny on convection at this time, good circulation and banding coming along, no CDO yet. Probably upgraded at 11, or, if convestion is use as the determining criteria,a s it has a few times this season, 5pm.

Off the east coast, who knows, what a mess!

And finally, something is happening in the Central Gulf. Anyone, thoughts?

IHS,

Bill

Re: August (#2)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 10:05AM 30-Aug-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)


Hate to disagree, but I think we will see Ernesto before the clock strikes 12 EDT tomorrow. CHeers!

Bill's got us figured out. (#3)
Posted by:
Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Newport News, VA
Posted On 10:10AM 30-Aug-2000 with id (RPVNRTVNRRPNRUP*)


I didn't say a TD wouldn't form. :)

Way things have been going this season, Ernesto could be a Hurricane at 11AM tomorrow. I'll stick with what we said for now, though.


gulf (#4)
Posted by:
Rick Shade Location: Mobile, Al
Posted On 10:57AM 30-Aug-2000 with id (RPYNQRNRSXNRTT*)


It was 105 degrees in Mobile yesterday...hottest ever recorded for us....so here's what I think...I HOPE some sort of tropical system develops to remove all this heat. I wonder what the SST's in the gulf are now? If man could tap that energy..wow...

The developing thunderstorms in the gulf from that funny low pressure system off of Florida may spin its own circulation today. With the heat being what it is...plenty of energy, and I don't think there are any upper levels to blow the roof off. So...I think this area has a good chance...anyone else?

Atlantic (#5)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 11:00AM 30-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNUV*)


I am going out on a limb here (I always do) but I have to agree with Steve and Bill in saying there is already a TD out there...NHC is saying that there is a 1009mb low centered at 11N/29W and you can clearly see it on sat and ir imagery this morning. Wouldn't be surprised at all if we see TD#8 at the same times mentioned above (depending on how the NHC decides to play their hand with this one, maybe wanting to see if it holds together for the next 8 hours or so), and Ernesto by 11:00pm or earlier tomorrow night. That's just my own opinion, however, it could be way way off...(call it the "Debby Lesson") LOL...Colleen

TD#8?? (#6)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 11:18AM 30-Aug-2000 with id (QRNWWNQTUNWQ*)


Hello All,
Well I agree there is a Tropical Depression or very close to being one well out in the atlantic. I feel the only reason there holding back on making it a TD is thunderstorms have decreased in the past few hours. Though I think its going to happen over the next 6-12 hours its hard to understand the NHC's reasoning on why name a swirl off of Florida a TD and not this one. I feel its due to where it developes as much as anything else. This one is very far away where the TD off the Florida east coast was close too shore but realy who knows?

11:30 Advisory (#7)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 12:05PM 30-Aug-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)


Wave in the East Atlantic is slowly organizing, but should continue despite the subject advisory on this system. Strange how they state at 5:30 "conditions are favorable for development" and when they don't get rapid development, They say 6 hours later "upper level winds have become less favorable for development" . Don't they monitor and forecast the upper level winds? Anyhow, I see slow development of this system during the next 24 hours, but shear continues off the north coast of south america to NE of the Windwards and Leewards. If this doesn't abate during te next 72 hours, Ernesto (should he be born) will get torn up. If winds relax he will continue WNW beyond 72 hours. See that Anti cyclone over the Bahamas and SE of there? Huge swirl with it. Interesting to see if that plays into future weather. cheers!

Models (#8)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 12:28PM 30-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPUNVX*)


Well, as well as I can read models (and I can't really read them well) the only one who even initially recognizes this system is AVN..which puts it at TS strength in 72 hours with a 1004mb low (at least from I what I can see)..UKMET and NOGAPS don't even have it initialized yet, so I can't believe what they see. As far as wind shear goes, I can't even begin to read the models on those, because Idon't know how to read them...but the latest sat loop and IR images really doesn't show much of a change, except it does not look as well organized as it did earlier. Could be going through some shear right now, like Steve said, but from what I have read, that shear is supposed to relax in about 2 days or so....anyone else? This season has been so strange, who knows what will happen.

We are all on the same wavelength (#9)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 12:37PM 30-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)


Please pardon the pun above, don't get depressed about it, or storm off in a whirl>

Sorry, that just happened!Serendipity?!:)

Steve literally took the words out of my mouth about the NHC and their flip flops...one can laugh or cry, I guess.

Anyone notice the little swirl off St. Augustine that is gaining momentum? Check out the GOES close-up. Now, there have been/are so many swirls, I am not forcasting anything fromt hat system or the mess!I haven't looked at the S. Aug CMAN, might be interesting!

I did notice very interestingly that there was a three hour lull at the Fryinb Pan Shoals this morning and the winds switched 180 degrees from the beginning to the end of the lull, and were much stronger before and after. What is that system? I'd say hybrid does best describe it.

Little miniswirls are all over the place within the larger envelope. It'll be interesting to see if the Gulf convection develops there, or moves into the ATL and something materializes there.

RE: "TD 8"..yes, I agree, it is (a td), and it doesn't look much different from this morning..we could still have a td by the end of the day.

And finally---can anyone say EMILY? (from last yr)...look east of the islands at, I think it was about 12 N(I forget) 50W (fer sure)..there is a low developing, a circulation, looks much more together than Emily ever did, and in about the same place. Think something might be happening there? Course there is a lot of shear, but, small systems can spin up (and down) just like Emily did, on the drop of a hat, or should I say isohyet?

It's getting busier here folks, if the upper troposphere will heat up (it is) and shear will relax (could), things will pop. There is so much going on right now, I think God is just protecting us froma plethora of tropical cyclones!
Debbie was more than a MINOR miracle by the way..I think that was the power of prayer definitley at work! Thank God!

IHS,

Bill

Funny you Should Say that Bill (#10)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 01:03PM 30-Aug-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)


When Debby was getting organized in the Atlantic my Brother-in-Law asked me what the chances were of being affected by the storm (he lives in Stuart) and I said "nothing but devine intervention would keep us from seeing this storm affect florida, start praying". Literally, that's what I said to him. Yes, I did notice that little bit of convection east of the islands and something could form out of that also. I'll have to look at St. Augustine. The last (16:15) loop showed our "TD" pulling together a little better. I think it will be on the upswing from now through at least 72 hours. Cheers!

prospects (#11)
Posted by: Frank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 01:08PM 30-Aug-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)


everyone has pretty much covered the bases when it comes to spotting all the little potent spots out there.. but im hesitant to think any of them have more than a slim chance. the upper air patterns for the atlantic on vapor look to me rather like the suds in a washing machine. there are breaks and relative calm spots in the mid latitudes.. but what seems to be tearing the heart out of the hurricane season is that persistent jet of upper shear that crosses the caribbean and low latitude atlantic.. it's keeping the cape verde area rather mellow. with the weak la nina still hanging on.. why all the shear, i wonder? well, i dont expect any floyd-like storms this year (knock on wood), at least. if anything big comes at the u.s. this season, id expect it to originate in the w. carib, gulf, maybe just off the east coast. keep eyeballing this broad low off the s.e., watch the edges and secondary vorticies.. i think it has the best chance of starting something, still. as for the eastern atlantic, i think that shear is going to strangle anything that fires off anytime soon.
heart of the hurricane season, and things are a lot quieter than they could be. didnt expect this.
have a good one everybody.

Uh oh! hey NHC, look off Myrtle Beach...it's not going west... (#12)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 01:32PM 30-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)


And, it is getting better organized, there is solid convection all around the central 'clear spot".....


the odd season continues....

IHS,

Bill

St. Augustine rotation (#13)
Posted by:
Gary Location: Jacksonville
Posted On 01:40PM 30-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQURNVUNR*)


Not only is that rotation off of nc not moving, but Bill was right about the swirl off St Augustine, the boey is reporting wind around 14 to 18 mph, but we are getting winds close to 30 on shore.

Developing 33.9N 77.7W (#14)
Posted by: Gary Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 01:57PM 30-Aug-2000 with id (RPYNRQVNXUNXW*)



TPNT KGWC 301727

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE EAST OF FLORIDA

B. 30/1632Z (97)

C. 33.9N/5

D. 77.7W/1

E. THREE/GOES8

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0 24HRS -30/1632Z-

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI



19A/ PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN SHEARED 52NM FROM LLCC.

FINAL T BASED ON DT, PT SUPPORTS. MET YIELDS 1.5.




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