CFHC Talkback For News Story #78:
Newest Talkback: 02:34 AM 09-02 EDT

No Development this Weekend
05:02 AM EDT - 01 September 2000

I don't see anything happening for this weekend, maybe into next week a little, but until then enjoy the weekend.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)


Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [jc]

Show All Comments
Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #40 (of 40 total)
Posting (#1)
Posted by: Mike (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Newport News, VA (Currently)
Posted On 05:14AM 01-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRNUSNVY*)

I disabled the last articles talkbacks because it degenerated into thoughtless namecalling. Please respect each others opinions and post constructively. And at the same time, please take criticism for what its worth and do not try to be confrontational. I know we have a few wave mongerers that post here, but it is a good discussion regardless.
I disabled the last talkbacks because someone was unable to see the valid criticisms of another and resorted to profane namecalling. (Hint: It wasn't "Tommy") If you want that type of thing please feel free to create your own hurricane site.

Thanks,

- Mike C. / CFHC
Central Atlantic Wave (#2)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 07:41AM 01-Sep-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

I still am aniticipating the wave in te Central atlantic to develop this weekend. Upper-level winds are beginning to become more favorable and the trough over the Leewards appears to be pulling out. This wave should be closely watched as I feel a westward track is possible, and high pressure will re-establish itself in the western Atlantic. during the next week. Cheers>
To Steve (#3)
Posted by: Gary Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 08:13AM 01-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNTNTSNXY*)

I will go out on a limb and agree with you and say TD by 11:00am today T#1.5 At 5:45am and will be T2 at 11am
Big wave i thinks (#4)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 08:47AM 01-Sep-2000 with id (QYYNRRWNRPNRST*)

Thats one big wave it would suckto let that thing have a chance to develop
Still Skeptical... (#5)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 09:23AM 01-Sep-2000 with id (QRYNQQUNUUNQQX*)

The disturbance in the central Atlantic does look a little better, but strong shear is still forecast to remain ahead of the system. If it does develop (which I refuse to guess about one way or another), it looks like another Chris. Maybe, just maybe if it can make it into the Caribbean west of the longitude of PR, then it'll have a better chance. Until then, I'll take a "wait and see" attitude.
Development? (#6)
Posted by: Richie Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Posted On 09:25AM 01-Sep-2000 with id (QVUNQVQNSNQT*)

HERE IS WHAT THE EXPERTS SAY TODAY:


SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
500 AM EDT FRI SEP 01 2000

A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL DISTURBANCE...ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER...IS LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST...OR 285 DEGREES...
AT 20 TO 25 MPH. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT NEAR
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION...WHICH IS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 44.5W. THIS
SYSTEM HAS BEEN NEAR TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY IF THE
THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.

THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE FAST FORWARD
MOTION OF THIS SYSTEM MAY INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION OR
STRENGTHENING TODAY.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE UPCOMING LABOR
DAY WEEKEND.
Dvorak Update (#7)
Posted by: Gary Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 09:44AM 01-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNTNTSNXY*)

Dvorak update at 7:15est shows no increase in last two hours with a partially exposed LLCC winds still at 25k

TPNT KGWC 011225

A. DISTURBANCE IN THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC

B. 01/1115Z (100)

C. 14.9N/4

D. 45.1W/0

E. SIX/GOES8

F. T1.5/1.5/STT:S0.0 2HRS -01/1115Z-

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI



49A/ PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. POSITION CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER AS A

RESULT OF MSI ANMTN AND VISIBLE LLCLS. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON THE LOG10

SPIRAL. FINAL T IS BASED ON PT.



MASSURA

I Was Just Going to Mention That.... (#8)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 09:44AM 01-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNQUS*)

I was just going to post on the fast motion of this storm...moving at 20-25 mph, it may be too fast for any impending development..however, they have also issued a statement that includes the T#'s mentioning "classification" posted by Gary on another site. I guess we will have to wait and see what happens between now and 5pm..but I would *guess* that we will see a TD form sometime over the weekend. They also mentioned in their TWD at 8:05am that the winds are now becoming less hostile for this system(low vertical shear)...anyone have any comments on the system that just exited the African Coast? Looked like a monster yesterday, but looking at it today, it's not nearly as impressive looking as it was...Colleen
What does this mean? (#9)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 09:47AM 01-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNQUS*)

CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON THE LOG10

SPIRAL. FINAL T IS BASED ON PT.

I can read the rest of the report, but I am not sure exactly what this means...thanks for helping me out! Colleen


Colleen (#10)
Posted by: Gary Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 10:27AM 01-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNTNTSNXY*)

Final T is based on PT (pattern type- banding,cdo,shear...) not IR temperature between the eye and surrounding cloud tops
Thanks, Gary! (#11)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 10:51AM 01-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNQUS*)

Thank you! You are always so helpful when I have so many questions! Colleen
Anyone Have the Latest T numbers? (#12)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 11:52AM 01-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNSS*)

This thing has become very well organized in just a matter of hours...wondering if someone can find the latest T#'s on this system...
Shear (#13)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 12:12PM 01-Sep-2000 with id (QYYNRRWNQSQNRRT*)

Ernesto is headed right toward a monumental wall of shear if that shear doesent deminish i doubt ernesto will make it to the islands. And how acurate are the models that predict shear


shear (#14)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 12:23PM 01-Sep-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

The wall of shear Currently over the WIndward islands is being caused by an upper level trough well north of the islands that is quickly opening and filling. Our wave is still miles away from it, but the LLCC is racing out ahead of the convection, so it will be interesting to see what happens when it approaches this area over the weekend. I believe this will not be a Debby in that it should slow it's forward speed somewhat as it approaches the islands. This slowing should give it plenty of time for the trough to lift out/diminish and spell a continued westward-slightly north of west path. Keep in mind the models are beginning to validate, but are lagging behind (relaxation of shear)a day or so. If the wave continues at it's present speed it could suffer some of the effects of shear, but not be totally obliterated. My opinion on that for what it's worth. Should be fun to watch for the time being. Cheers!
Shear/LLCC (#15)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 01:27PM 01-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPVNQYR*)

Steve is right about the shear, it will be gone (or should be!) by the time this wave reaches that area. However, based on the way this storm is rapidly developing, I don't believe the LLCC is racing ahead of the main area of convection; if it was, it wouldn't be able to develop as well as it has so far this morning, and if this trend continues, I say by 5pm we have TD#8 and TS Ernesto sometime over the weekend.
Ernesto Soon (#16)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 03:40PM 01-Sep-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

If currnet development continues, the NHC should declare Ernesto today, and skip the TD part. 18:45 UTC loop shows good circulation developing, despite a little shear. And it is a little further north, or at least it's initial point will be if declared tonight, from what was previously thought. Even though the trough to it's west should relax in the next 24 hours, it is still hanging tough, and may hinder explosive development of this system, at least until it bypasses this tutt. Will be interesting to see the effect of this trough, whether it be in hindering development or changing the "waves" heading. But looks like Ernesto to me on the latest sat pix. If it weren't for this trough, I'd say ernesto would develop rapidly. WE'll see. Cheers!.
New TD (#17)
Posted by: Bruce Location: Palm Bay Florida
Posted On 04:09PM 01-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNQS*)

I think we will see Ernesto form into a TD at any time. I also feel we will see rapid development of this system over the weekend. The shear will ease over the early part of the weekend. PR watch out!
Cold water (#18)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 04:17PM 01-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Sorry to throw some but if you look at the last few pics you can see that the (probably already) td is already experiencing shear, and the model forecast is for a closed upper low near PR to shear the system and shunt it off to the north. However, the system has been undergoing a diurnal variation, and like many tropical systems it flares up in the late night, early morning hours, and flares 'down' in the afternoon.

So, the question is (as it seems always to be this season)- will the shear relax, or not.

In the meantime, it seems like a system is trying to sneak through the shear zone on the south. If it gets through, it may develop.

Looks like the proto-TD 8 has maxed for the day, but don't be surprised if the NHC upgrades it at 5. You have to realize that often their analysis is about 2 hours old when the advisory or outlook is issued...and the sytem peaked right about 3 pm.

We will see!

IHS,

Bill
We will all See (#19)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:17PM 01-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNRV*)

We will all see at 5 what NHC decides to do...the 2pm T numbers were still 1.5, so unless they got some other ones in that I cannot locate (CALLING GARY) I am betting on TD status at 5pm...of course, gambling is always a dangerous game, so I am not putting any money down!!! Colleen
Dvorak Current Intensity Unchanged (#20)
Posted by: Gary Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 04:19PM 01-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNTNTSNQQV*)

No increase in sat derived winds past 9 hrs. No storm yet.

TPNT KGWC 011931

A. DISTURBANCE IN THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC

B. 01/1831Z (100)

C. 15.7N/3

D. 46.0W/0

E. SIX/GOES8

F. T1.5/1.5/STT: S0.0 09HRS -01/1831Z-

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI



40A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION MEASURES .30 DEGREES ON LOG10. FT

BASED ON DT. PT SUPPORTS ANALYSIS.

Thanks, Gary!!! (#21)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:34PM 01-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNRV*)

no message, except of course, THANK YOU.
Dvorak (#22)
Posted by: Jerry Location: Bonita Springs
Posted On 04:48PM 01-Sep-2000 with id (SXNQWWNQWVNR*)

Check out the 20:15UTC Dvorak
Dvorak (#23)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 04:58PM 01-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Would love to Jerry, where is it?

IHS,

Bill
Please? Jerry? (#24)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 05:00PM 01-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNQVX*)

Give us a hint...up/down/gone/ what? LOL!! From what I just read, the NEW thinking is that this system won't make it...call it the Debby Lesson. Jees, when will I ever learn!!!!
Movement (#25)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 05:01PM 01-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

And looking at the Dvoraks seesm storm is moving NW already, or is just reforming further to the NW. look at the two posted on here so far.

IHS,

Bill
New center? (#26)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 05:13PM 01-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Looks like "TD 8" is trying a new strategy to deal with the shear...a new center seesm to be forming near 16/46, and it is looking (at least on the short-term) on the upswing, but either it is moving NW/NNW or it is just a relocation.

The cloud signature suggests it is moving NW. If the new intensification/reorganization trend continues, even if it isn't upgraded momentarily, it may be tonight.

We will see!

IHS,

Bill
Uh, Bill? Did you TAKE my Crystal Ball? (#27)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 05:20PM 01-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNTY*)

I think you should read the new TWO from the NHC...YOU ARE RIGHT ON. Do you work there? Are you a plant? A fern? What?

You are GOOD.
Thank you Colleen! (#28)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 05:23PM 01-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Just reading my satpics ma'am..been doing it for a LONG time..btw, I am looking all over for the TWO, where do you get it so early, if you don't mind my asking, ma'am.

IHS,

Bill
Found TWO on UM site (#29)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 05:27PM 01-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Colleen-

you just read faster than I do!

Again, thannks.

A TD is forming, we will see how long it takes NHC to formalize that.

If it is heading NW, doubt they will do anything until the next TWO/11pm.

IHS,

Bill
Bill, Now I Am LOL!!! (#30)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 05:28PM 01-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNTY*)

Bill, my dear friend, read the top of the page here...it was out about 20 minutes early!!!! I am not laughing at you, just everything!!! Read my post to you on Mike's site...I think you will like it...by the way...anyone (CALLING GARY, AGAIN) have the 20:15 Dvorak's yet
Dvorak and other satellite pics (#31)
Posted by: Jerry Location: Bonita Springs
Posted On 05:33PM 01-Sep-2000 with id (SXNQWWNQWVNR*)

The Dvorak can be found at www.hurricanewarning.net/satellite.html in the GOES 8 floater section, but you have to come back here for the good conversations (that's a plug for John and Mike...good site!)
DUH! (#32)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 05:39PM 01-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Well, I was so busy looking FAR AWAY at the satpics, I didn't think to look at the top of the page!

The forest for the trees...:)

IHS,

Bill
Hmmmm (#33)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 05:45PM 01-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

This is the third time I have posted a message thanking Jerry, and every time I look after posting it is there, when I come back it is gone..alert, C bros!

IHS,

Bill
Yes, and Mine too! (#34)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 05:58PM 01-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNQVV*)

I just posted a reply thanking Jerry for the link (which I still don't know how to read..help please) and it didn't post either....Jerry, could you tell me what the T's are please
Reading Dvorak T #s (#35)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 06:12PM 01-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Colleen-

the explanation of how to read the numbers is at the link Jerry cited, under the Goes Floater section.

IHS,

Bill
Dvorak #s? (#36)
Posted by: Andy
Posted On 07:45PM 01-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRQXNUVNQPX*)

Okay I see where you find out how to read the Dvorak #'s but where does one find the #s? Sorry if I've missed the obvious. -Thanks.

-Andy
Dvorak Numbers (#37)
Posted by: Ed Dunham Location: Melbourne, FL
Posted On 09:04PM 01-Sep-2000 with id (VSNQVRNRRVNUU*)

Andy et al:
From Dr Chris Landsea's FAQ on Hurricanes

CI Number Maximum Sustained One Minute Winds (kts) Central Pressure (mb)
Atlantic NW Pacific
0.0 <25 ---- ----
0.5 25 ---- ----
1.0 25 ---- ----
1.5 25 ---- ----
2.0 30 1009 1000
2.5 35 1005 997
3.0 45 1000 991
3.5 55 994 984
4.0 65 987 976
4.5 77 979 966
5.0 90 970 954
5.5 102 960 941
6.0 115 948 927
6.5 127 935 914
7.0 140 921 898
7.5 155 906 879
8.0 170 890 858


Note that this estimation of both maximum winds and central pressure assumes that the winds and pressures are always consistent. However, since the winds are really determined by the pressure gradient, small tropical cyclones (like the Atlantic's Andrew in 1992, for example) can have stronger winds for a given central pressure than a larger tropical cyclone with the same central pressure. Thus caution is urged in not blindly forcing tropical cyclones to "fit" the above pressure- wind relationships. (The reason that lower pressures are given to the Northwest Pacific tropical cyclones in comparison to the higher pressures of the Atlantic basin tropical cyclones is because of the difference in the background climatology. The Northwest Pacific basin has a lower background sea level pressure field. Thus to sustain a given pressure gradient and thus the winds, the central pressure must accordingly be smaller in this basin.)

The errors for using the above Dvorak technique in comparison to aircraft measurements taken in the Northwest Pacific average 10 mb with a standard deviation of 9 mb (Martin and Gray 1993). Atlantic tropical cyclone estimates likely have similar errors. Thus an Atlantic hurricane that is given a CI number of 4.5 (winds of 77 kt and pressure of 979 mb) could in reality be anywhere from winds of 60 to 90 kt and pressures of 989 to 969 mb. These would be typical ranges to be expected; errors could be worse. However, in the absence of other observations, the Dvorak technique does at least provide a consistent estimate of what the true intensity is.

While the Dvorak technique was calibrated for the Atlantic and Northwest Pacific basin because of the aircraft reconnaissance data ground truth, the technique has also been quite useful in other basins that have limited observational platforms. However, at some point it would be preferable to re-derive the Dvorak technique to calibrate tropical cyclones with available data in the other basins.

Lastly, while the Dvorak technique is primarily designed to provide estimates of the current intensity of the storm, a 24 h forecast of the intensity can be obtained also by extrapolating the trend of the CI number. Whether this methodology provides skillful forecasts is unknown.

Cheers,
ED
gary's kid (#38)
Posted by: Missina (http://theflbettaroom.homestead.com/) Location: Hernadobeach
Posted On 09:22PM 01-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRPXNUNRSX*)

hi all, Im gary's daghter and over this weekend if you would like to get a hold of him you can email me and I will drag him over to my home were I have the internet, but soon he will have the internet to. I dont know much about weather but thats what my dad if for:)

missina
Dvorak #s (#39)
Posted by: Andy
Posted On 09:40PM 01-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRQXNUVNQPX*)

Actually I was hoping for the site (URL) that would show the Dvorak #s for the current entities in the Atlantic. Sorry for the confusion. Thanks Again.

-Andy
TD #8 (#40)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 10:34PM 01-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYVNRV*)

Tropical Depression #8 has finally been declared at 10:30 EDT. Advisories will begin at 11pm. This should have been done at 5pm, but time will tell where he is going and if he will move WNW through the shear, which at last look appeared to be lessening.
Show All Comments

Return to Central Florida Hurricane Center Main Page