CFHC Talkback For News Story #84:
Newest Talkback: 03:47 PM 09-08 EDT

Sure Shear
08:57 AM EDT - 07 September 2000

The system mentioned yesterday is having trouble developing because of shear. This is the story of the last few weeks. The shear in this area has killed several potential developing systems, and this one, along with fighting some dry air intake, is undergoing something similar .

Still, it should be watched.
New Development Chances bar: 

(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
           [--------*-------------]
The Caribbean will still need to watch it, but the Gulf system is not going to happen.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

StormCarib.com has reports from folks in the Caribbean islands themselves and is worth checking out when storms approach the Caribbean.
Ouragans.com Français -- L'information sur des ouragans comprenant beaucoup de liens.
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.

Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #14 (of 14 total)
Check this out (#1)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 09:53AM 07-Sep-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

Our disturbance is dying, but check out thge circulation developing and racing WNW of where the disturbance used to be. ANy thoughts on what this might do. It almost looks determined to take the ball and run> Cheers!

What do you think? (#2)
Posted by: David Location: Brevard/PSJ
Posted On 12:37PM 07-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNQQTNRRPNRTW*)

HI All,

Take a look at the wave working into the Gulf.


http://sgihss3f.wwb.noaa.gov/data4/images/TROPICAL/atl/gmex-ir4-loop.html


If you look around 20/89 there seems to be some action moving off of the Yucatan P. heading into the Gulf. Any thoughts if the conditions are ripe for developement?


Watch the Gulf (#3)
Posted by: Joe
Posted On 04:12PM 07-Sep-2000 with id (VTNRTTNQNYV*)

Lots of thunderstorms have been in the gulf for days now.This will have to be watch.There is a Low
pressure system just west of it.And in the atlantic nothing to worry about, I don't think.

Joe
Bahamas (#4)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: Palm Bay FL
Posted On 04:56PM 07-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYVNTS*)

The NCEP tropical desk and the NWS Melbourne are somewhat concerned again about the possibility of a low pressure developing from a tutt as the ridge to the north will divert polar energy south across the bahamas by 48 hours and continue to deepen thru 72 hours with a fairly strong surface reflection. This is the forecast anyhow, and the trough or low pressure area will move WSW toward the FL peninsula at 84 hours. Interestingly, the ECMWF takes the vortex left over from the tropical disturbance east of the Leewards and merges it with the tutt over the bahamas, developing a warm core system at 84 hours . HHMMM....we shall see. Weather could get nasty over E. coast of florida late this weekend. We'll see. The gulf should be ready to cook soon. Some of the models develop a system there next week and take it towards the Panhandle. Again it's a wait and see. That's what the models are saying, and you know how trustworthy they've been lately. Cheers!!
Ain't over till it's over (#5)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 05:18PM 07-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

oh oh...I see convection flaring, big time, just eat of the Leewards, and centering over the circulation of TD 9 wannabe...could it be?

And, look at the central Gulf...even if it doesn't develop, current flow paterns would bring a lot of rain up over the Fl Panhandle...

IHS,

Bill
Don't write the season off (#6)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 05:25PM 07-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

If you haven't already been following this, take a look:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/gparm/genesis.asp

The indicators have all become more favorable in the last day, and most significantly, Dr. Gray's own parameter has become positive for the first time this yr (read the explanations and you will understand).

These charts are telling us that the tropics appear to suddenly be becoming much more favorable for formation..as we near the peak of the season.

IHS,

Bill

New Test Runs... coming back to life? (#7)
Posted by: Gary Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 09:18AM 08-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNTNTSNQQX*)


DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.



.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....



NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION (AL9200) ON 20000908 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...

000908 1200 000909 0000 000909 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 19.0N 59.1W 19.8N 60.4W 20.7N 61.7W

BAMM 19.0N 59.1W 20.0N 60.8W 20.9N 62.4W

A90E 19.0N 59.1W 19.5N 60.2W 20.4N 61.4W

LBAR 19.0N 59.1W 20.1N 59.9W 21.6N 60.7W

SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS



...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...

000910 0000 000910 1200 000911 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 21.7N 63.1W 22.7N 64.2W 25.3N 65.7W

BAMM 21.9N 63.8W 22.9N 65.1W 25.2N 66.8W

A90E 22.1N 62.6W 24.5N 63.7W 27.9N 64.7W

LBAR 23.2N 61.4W 24.7N 61.8W 27.2N 61.2W

SHIP 47KTS 56KTS 71KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LAT0 = 19.0N LON0 = 59.1W DIR0 = 295DEG SPD0 = 5KT

LATM12 = 18.5N LONM12 = 58.4W DIRM12 = 310DEG SPDM12 = 4KT

LATM24 = 18.1N LONM24 = 57.9W

WND0 = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = -9NM RD34SE = -9NM RD34SW = -9NM RD34NW = -9NM



.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....



GULF (#8)
Posted by: NICK Location: ORLANDO ,FL
Posted On 09:44AM 08-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNQVQ*)

CHECK OUT THE GULF , LOOKS LIKE SHES COOKING UP A STORM
Here it comes (#9)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 09:52AM 08-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Hi all!

Remember the post I did yesterday about he factors becoming favorable for development, well , look at

1. the Gulf
2. our old friend by the Antilles

3.a new system coming in very far to the south, east of the Antilles

and there may be more yet.

Definitely looks like the Gulf is cooking and seems like the system off the Leewards is coming together.

Will any develop? Stay tuned!

IHS,

Bill
This Will Be a Busy Day (#10)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 09:59AM 08-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNQXY*)

Well, we wanted busy, and we got it.....be careful what you wish for!!!! Colleen
GOM AT 25.9 89.7 winds 29 gust to 43 knots (#11)
Posted by: Gary Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 10:13AM 08-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNTNTSNQQX*)

Offshore Data at 13Z Sep 08
DAY/ ID Latit Longit Temp Dewp Wind Gust MaxGst Press PTend SeaT Wvht WvPd
HOUR (-degrees-) (---C---) (---degr/knots---) (millibars) (C) (m) (s)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
08/13 42001 25.9 -89.7 27.7 23.8 160 29 G 43 160 43 1010.9 0.4 29.4 1.5 6
08/13 42002 25.9 -93.6 28.5 24.2 150 16 G 17 150 17 1008.4 0.4 29.7 1.5 7
08/13 42003 25.9 -85.9 28.8 24.0 110 12 G 14 110 16 1013.3 1.4 29.3 1.0 6
08/13 42007 30.1 -88.8 28.4 23.2 140 12 G 14 160 16 1013.4 1.5 29.0 1.0 7
08/13 42019 27.9 -95.4 26.3 22.1 180 14 G 17 1009.3 0.8 29.0 1.0 6
08/13 42020 26.9 -96.7 26.6 22.4 010 12 G 14 1009.4 1.3 29.2 1.0 7
08/13 42035 29.2 -94.4 26.2 24.0 060 16 G 19 1010.2 0.6 29.2 1.0 5
08/13 42036 28.5 -84.5 27.7 23.4 100 10 G 14 1014.9 1.6 28.4 1.0 7
08/13 42039 28.8 -86.0 28.1 23.5 100 10 G 12 090 14 1015.2 1.6 29.2 1.0 7
08/13 42040 29.2 -88.2 28.4 24.2 140 14 G 17 150 17 1012.7 0.9 28.9 1.5 6
08/13 42041 27.2 -90.4 29.0 130 19 G 23 130 23 1009.5 0.0 29.7 2.0 7
08/13 42042 29.9 -88.3 27.1 140 19 G 21 140 23 1013.5 1.1 29.4 1.5 7
08/13 42054 26.0 -87.8 29.1 24.5 140 17 G 21 140 21 1012.1 0.9 29.1 1.0 7
08/13 BURL1 28.9 -89.3 27.3 24.0 100 11 G 15 160 24 1012.7 1.0
08/13 CDRF1 29.1 -82.9 24.2 050 10 G 12 060 15 1016.1 1.9
08/13 CSBF1 29.7 -85.2 23.4 22.3 050 7 G 11 060 12 1015.7 1.5
08/13 DPIA1 30.3 -88.0 24.6 040 12 G 14 050 13 1015.2 1.0
08/13 DRYF1 24.6 -82.7 28.9 100 9 G 10 1013.7 1.1 30.1
08/13 GDIL1 29.3 -89.9 26.5 24.6 090 2 G 4 090 6 1013.1 1.1 28.5
08/13 KTNF1 29.8 -83.5 23.7 22.1 070 8 G 10 060 11 1016.3 2.0
08/13 PTAT2 27.8 -97.0 24.9 23.5 360 15 G 16 360 29 1009.6 1.3 28.1
08/13 SANF1 24.1 -82.0 30.2 090 5 G 6 100 16 1013.3 1.3 30.0
08/13 SRST2 29.7 -94.0 22.2 21.2 030 9 G 12 020 14 1010.9 0.4
08/13 VENF1 27.1 -82.4 25.6 050 5 G 6 070 10 1015.2 1.3 29.9



Reports: 24



Things getting busy (#12)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 10:57AM 08-Sep-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

Any speculation about what and where these things are going If/When they develop. Hey, and what's up with that thing SE of the windwards? Looks like a circulation developing!!! I'm at work and can't stay on . Cheers!!!
Speculation (#13)
Posted by: David Location: Brevard/PSJ
Posted On 11:24AM 08-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNQQTNRRPNRTW*)

Hello again,

Looking at the loop of the WV:


http://sgihss3f.wwb.noaa.gov/data4/images/TROPICAL/atl/catl-wv-loop.html


19.5/59.5 (ish) It seems to have circulation, but it looks like the shear monster has it in its grips. Or do you-all think that is out flow?


The is a swirl at 12/52 (ish) It does not look like shear is affecting it.
The next 7 days should prove to be interesting.

once again.. (#14)
Posted by: Frank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 11:47AM 08-Sep-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)

so, they updated the outlook just now. this one sounds very different from recent outlooks.. i guess theyre looking at the current situation in a new light.. maybe considering the favorable trends described in the link bill posted last night. i seem to recall all of the factors being slightly to solidly positive for development. we're right around peak season, it would be silly for something NOT to develop in the next few days, anyway. the overall environment is improving right now (as weve heard many a time.. but this time it looks more real than some other times) and should generate something before too long. just for its proximity to the islands the nhc may decide to upgrade the 18n/60w wave/low complex, since theyll probably find borderline depression stats when the plane gets there.
take it easy folks.
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