CFHC Talkback For News Story #89:
Newest Talkback: 05:43 PM 09-12 EDT

Tropical Storm Florence
02:31 PM EDT - 11 September 2000

Florence has formed already from TD#10. It's basically drifting at this point, and is a little stronger than I thought it would be (60MPH winds).

Since it is drifting somewhat westward right now, it will have to be watched. I still think it will eventually head out to sea without affecting land. But because slow moving storms are difficult to predict, we must be vigilant.

More to come...

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)


Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #33 (of 33 total)
Florence's Pressure (#1)
Posted by: clyde w. Location: orlando
Posted On 02:44PM 11-Sep-2000 with id (VSNWSNRQSNU*)

Colleen,

You asked earlier if the pressure would be lower than 1000mb in the center of Florence. It was posted at 998mb, but that was estimated. These hybrid storms are a bit tricky in that sometimes the pressure is much lower than you would see in a 60 mph storm that is forming in the deep tropics. Not exactly sure why, so anyone with theories, please feel free to help!

By the way, you are right on with Jim Cantore! Interesting side note: did you know he was once assaulted in St. Pete because a man decided it was his fault that a hurricane was threatening the area
Poor Jim! (#2)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 02:52PM 11-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNQTU*)

Clyde, I did not know that!! Poor guy...he's very straight forward, kind of like the ABC guy here, Dennis Philips...he says what his gut is telling him. I like John Hope and Steve Lyons, but basically they just read the advisories and that's it. So are you saying that the pressure could be lower or higher than 998mb? Is that what recon has found? Or is NHC estimating that is what they will find? Thanks for your help!!! Colleen
Latest T#'s (#3)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 02:58PM 11-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNQTU*)

Here are the latest T#'s:

Atlantic Ocean Basin:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM

11/1745Z 30.3N 72.6W T2.5/2.5 TS Florence


Recon (#4)
Posted by: clyde w. Location: orlando
Posted On 03:02PM 11-Sep-2000 with id (VSNWSNRQSNU*)

The pressure was estimated to be 998mb. It most likely will be around that. The only reason it might be higher is if the 1000mb reading was in a convective supercell, which would produce lower pressure readings than surrounding areas. However, Beryl this year had 50 mph winds and a 1008mb pressure, much higher than the 998mb that Florence has. I was just wondering why that might be, and if it had anything to do with Florence being a hybrid storm?

As for TWC, I personally think the Tropical Update is very weak this year. I used to love it in year's past, but it is not very informative any more. Now when I want good information, I go surfing ;)
florence and colleen,,,good job (#5)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER)
Posted On 04:04PM 11-Sep-2000 with id (VSNQQNQVUNW*)

great job on your sorces colleen,,,I'm looking forward to your perdictions on this system.

Florence in the mean time should slowly continue to get better organinzed. The pressure should continue to drop and a SW motion around 5-8pm should continue through tonight.
Most models indicated a turn to the NE tomorrow or that night,,but this is a wait and see feature as they have her already alittle farther N then the postion and she just jogged more SSW in the last 2-3 hours.
None the less,,,she might just go NE,,but lets just watch as she could move just n of Grand Bahama island then maybe go wnw towards the NE fl coast before the turn.
Lets all collect our data and try to get the path and strength of her. I do see her becoming a hurricane later tonight or tomorrow.

scottsvb
Thanks, Scott! (#6)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:08PM 11-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNQXW*)

Thanks Scott...I have learned a lot justfrom surfing the web...although, I have to admit, I am having a hard time finding her center right now. Maybe my eyes are just tired!!! As for a prediction? I am not really that good at predicting what I think will happen, and that's because I am not that good a reading shear maps, upper level winds, etc...but I can predict this: I will be watching her closely. Colleen
A Good View of Florence's Center (#7)
Posted by: clyde w. Location: orlando
Posted On 04:17PM 11-Sep-2000 with id (TNQWNRUPNU*)

Colleen,

This site may help with finding the center of Florence.

http://sgihss3f.wwb.noaa.gov/data4/images/TROPICAL/float/float-vis-loop.html
Florence Path? (#8)
Posted by: dieter Location: CT
Posted On 04:31PM 11-Sep-2000 with id (QUYNQPXNSQNRUS*)

Hi all, new poster to this board - I've been evesdropping for a while. Everyone does a top notch job, very professional. I'm not a meteorologist (am an engineer) so I tend to leave predictions to the experts - particuarly tropical systems. Just thought I'd pass along that Bastardi on accuweather had some interesting thoughts on this thing as of early this a.m. He felt it was a T.S. then and gives it a 25% chance of heading up coast and 25% of it heading harmlessly out to sea. The other 50% was all other possibilities. Interesting read as he noted the present situation as suspiciously similar to Carol back in 1954. Carol was eventually drawn up the coast.
Recon Report (#9)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:52PM 11-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNVS*)

Here's a recon report I found:

URNT12 KNHC 111954
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 11/1955Z
B. 30 DEG 05 MIN N
72 DEG 26 MIN W
C. NA
D. 55 KT
E. 300 DEG 045 NM
F. 044 DEG 51 KT
G. 298 DEG 044 NM
H. EXTRAP 997 MB
I. 20 C/ 370 M
J. 23 C/ 357 M
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134/1
O. .25/2 NM
P. AF980 0110A CYCLONE OB 16
MAX FL WIND 79 KT NE QUAD 1815Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.

=
Now, this report is from 4:00pm so my question is this: I know before highest windspeed they found was se of the center, and now this is in the NE quadrant at 79knts. Is this report just giving them more information or does it change the actual strength of the storm? I guess it really wouldn't, but who knows..if YOU or some you know knows, please let me know!!!
Looks Like Flo is Strengthening Quickly (#10)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 05:00PM 11-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNVS*)

I guess I answered my own question:

WTNT25 KNHC 112042

TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1000

2100Z MON SEP 11 2000

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 72.7W AT 11/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.

I did not copy the rest of it because I figured you all would be able to read the 5PM discussion. This puts it at 69mph winds/ with gusts to 86 mph...which is 5mph below Hurricane 1 status...this is just simply amazing to me! She went from being non-tropical to just below minimum hurricane strenght in 12 hours...I guess Mother Nature has awoken. Colleen
Florence (#11)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 05:02PM 11-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRPXNSQNQXQ*)

Colleen and all-

Florence does not yet have the classic tropical configuration, but it is working on it. NHC decided the surface winds were 60 mph based on a 64 kt FL wind, so therefore, if they consider the 79 kt ob as 'real', the may pop Florence up to hurricane strength at 5. The only reasons they may hold off;
1. may not be representative
2. lack of classic signature
3. closeness to coast- in other words, if they are't sure, they'll hold off.
4. Pressure doesn't support

I'll be surprised if they don't at least raise the winds to 65-70 mph.

An interesting scenario. Florance probably was storm yesterday...at the peak of the season!

The Gulf is beginning to fire, and the system e of the Islands is holding together. Looks like the Carib system is trying too.
Here we go! As I observed the other day,the demise of the season is not yet upon us!

IHS,

Bill
oops (#12)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 05:04PM 11-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRPXNSQNQXQ*)

Well, as Colleen says, the questions are answered! I took too long typing.

IHS,

Bill

Note the more sw path .
How Far? (#13)
Posted by: David
Posted On 06:27PM 11-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRUNTV*)

Can anyone tell me how far (in miles) is Florence from Cape Canaveral?

Thanks
Distance (#14)
Posted by: Ed Dunham Location: Melbourne, FL
Posted On 07:03PM 11-Sep-2000 with id (VSNQVRNRRVNQYT*)

David:
Florence is roughly 475 miles from the Cape, but keep in mind that its still linked to its upper level origins so movement could be mighty slow for awhile. It really cranked up in the last couple of hours as the convection moved over the eastern edge of the surface low. Surface pressure is lower because of that origin as an upper level low. Think of that upper level low as a valley in the atmosphere and Florence built down to the sea surface starting at the bottom of that valley. The last visible pix were sure impressive.
Cheers,
ED
Thanks Ed (#15)
Posted by: David
Posted On 07:22PM 11-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRUNTV*)

Thanks Ed,

What are your thoughts on the movement and developement of this TS?
Latest Recon Flight Info (#16)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 07:28PM 11-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNXS*)

Look at this, I just found it:

274

URNT12 KNHC 112135

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 11/2135Z

B. 30 DEG 09 MIN N

72 DEG 26 MIN W

C. NA

D. 80 KT

E. 055 DEG 035 NM

F. 091 DEG 70 KT

G. 057 DEG 031 NM

H. EXTRAP 993 MB

I. 17 C/ 347 M

J. 23 C/ 346 M

K. 23 C/ NA

L. OPEN SW

M. NA

N. 1234/1

O. .25/1 NM

P. AF980 0110A CYCLONE OB 20

MAX FL WIND 70 KT NE QUAD 2123Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.

If I am reading this right (big question right there) this is already a hurricane. At 80knts or 92mph, this would already be a Cat 2 storm (I think) What a weird storm. Please feel free to correct me if I am wrong. Colleen


Objective Aids for Hurricane Florence (#17)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 08:43PM 11-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPVNQWX*)


HURRICANE FLORENCE (AL1000) ON 20000912 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...

000912 0000 000912 1200 000913 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 30.3N 72.7W 30.1N 73.7W 30.0N 74.4W

BAMM 30.3N 72.7W 30.3N 73.5W 30.4N 74.1W

A90E 30.3N 72.7W 30.2N 73.3W 30.0N 73.6W

LBAR 30.3N 72.7W 30.3N 73.3W 30.4N 73.3W

SHIP 65KTS 73KTS 77KTS



...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...

000913 1200 000914 0000 000915 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 29.8N 74.7W 29.4N 74.4W 28.7N 72.3W

BAMM 30.5N 73.9W 30.4N 72.7W 30.6N 69.8W

A90E 29.4N 73.3W 29.1N 72.5W 29.0N 71.2W

LBAR 30.7N 73.0W 30.6N 72.5W 30.3N 71.1W

SHIP 80KTS 83KTS 83KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LAT0 = 30.3N LON0 = 72.7W DIR0 = 250DEG SPD0 = 4KT

LATM12 = 30.4N LONM12 = 72.1W DIRM12 = 240DEG SPDM12 = 6KT

LATM24 = 30.9N LONM24 = 71.0W

WND0 = 65KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 50KT

CENPRS = 992MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 75NM



NNNN

Looks like Hurricane Florence will be here at 11pm!!
Looks Like the Dry Air Will Kill Flo (#18)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 10:20PM 11-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPVNRPS*)

Been there, done that...see ya Flo...
Flo (#19)
Posted by: Rick Location: Mobile
Posted On 10:40PM 11-Sep-2000 with id (VTNQRNQPUNQWX*)

She isn't the only thing cooking out there. Even if it does...what will pull it West? There would have to be a strong high pressure ridge for her to slip under. Not in a good location to even think about. Now, if the Gulf starts to get some thunderstorm activity...or, if the flare up in the Caribbean starts to tighten up a little...or how about that wave half way to the Antilles? With the inability of any of the "experts" calling anything this year...it seems like a good time for something out there to surprise us. I was watching the history of Hurricane Andrew...and it intensified quick...a bunch of weather events all fell together. Even Joe Bastardi thinks the tropics are cooking..but I notice he isn't making any predictions. I can hardly blame him. Everything I have thought would happen, didn't...so why not keep making bad ones.
Brief Comment on Florence (#20)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 10:57PM 11-Sep-2000 with id (QRYNQQUNUSNQPU*)

Florence is not only experiencing moderate shear, it's also under a weak upper-level trough, and seems to be entraining a substantial amount of dry air in its western and southern flanks. Unless conditions change significantly, I think intensification, if any, will be slow. I pretty much concur with the forecast track as well, but I'll wait to see what kind of biases the models develop before commenting further.
Yeah..Take A Look At This (#21)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 10:58PM 11-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPVNRPS*)

Well, I know it's not looking good for Flo, you can clearly see the dry air she's sucking in on WV and the convection has almost died...but, I just pulled this up and I don't get it and maybe it's just me, but you would think the experts are smarter than me, and this just completely surprised me because I thought for sure it the T#'s would be down:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM

11/2345Z 30.0N 72.7W T3.0/3.0 TS Florence

However, it is still showing good signature on the loops, maybe that's why...my guess is as good as anyone's....Colleen
Steady State (#22)
Posted by: Ed Dunham Location: Melbourne, FL
Posted On 11:25PM 11-Sep-2000 with id (VSNQVRNRRVNTW*)

Flo will probably churn in place out there for a few days. It may have a diurnal cycle (like a normal cyclone often does) where it will flair up during the day and die down at night. If it doesn't move much (and it might not) it could eventually wipe itself out due to upwelling of cooler water beneath it - however, its upper level roots could hold it together for quite a long while. If it stays stationary, I'd be surprised if it intensified to hurricane strength.
Cheers,
ED
Advisory #5 (#23)
Posted by: David
Posted On 07:09AM 12-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRUNTV*)

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 12 2000

THERE WAS AN ENTRAINMENT OF DRY MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR INTO THE
CIRCULATION...WHICH DIMINISHED THE DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER RECENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THIS INFLUENCE MAY BE ABATING...
WITH AN INCREASE IN THE CENTRAL CONVECTION...ALONG WITH AN EYE-LIKE
WARM SPOT. EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEMS LACKS THE CLASSIC ANTICYCLONIC
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW PATTERN...VERTICAL SHEAR HAS BECOME
RELATIVELY WEAK AND IT IS SITUATED OVER 28 DEG C SST. THEREFORE
STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE IS LIKELY...IF FLORENCE IS NOT ONE
ALREADY. AIR FORCE RECON IS SCHEDULED FOR 12Z AND THIS WILL GIVE A
BETTER GAUGE OF INTENSITY.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE MOTION OVERNIGHT AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
ESSENTIALLY WEDGED IN BETWEEN TWO MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONES TO
THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. STEERING CURRENTS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
WEAK FOR A WHILE AND TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW LITTLE MOVEMENT FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN
AMPLIFYING 500 MB TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST...CREATING AN
INCREASING WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW FOR FLORENCE.
THUS...WE EXPECT ERRATIC MOTION...OR A VERY SLIGHT WESTWARD
DISPLACEMENT...DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO FOLLOWED BY AN EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFDL AND U.K. MET. OFFICE
GUIDANCE.

Crazy Stuff (#24)
Posted by: David Location: Brevard/PSJ
Posted On 09:20AM 12-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNQQTNRRPNRTW*)

http://sgihss3f.wwb.noaa.gov/data4/images/TROPICAL/atl/catl-wv-loop.html
Brief Comment II (#25)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 09:49AM 12-Sep-2000 with id (QRYNQQUNUUNQPQ*)

My, what a difference a few hours can make! Florence indeed looks much better; banding is strong, and *perhaps* there are hints of a partial eyewall trying to form. I eagerly await the recon observations.


flo (#26)
Posted by: gary Location: jacksonville
Posted On 10:22AM 12-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQURNVUNR*)

it looks like it may indeed be forming an eye, pressure is where it needs to be, and the convection is much better.
Any thought
Carribean (#27)
Posted by: Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 11:39AM 12-Sep-2000 with id (QRNQSNRTXNT*)

The activity in the Carribean right now is as impressive as any I've seen this season on an IR pix for not being classified... This system may turn into the seasons big event... stay tuned...
Western Caribbean (#28)
Posted by: Tom Location: Melbourne
Posted On 11:43AM 12-Sep-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

Over the last few hours it apprears that the thunderstorms are definitely becoming more concentrated. According to the NHC conditions are "quite" favorable for development. It slo appears that Flo is getting better organized, but I think that we should shift our attention to the Caribbean. I looks like its moving North or North West toward the gulf or the Florida Straits.

What do you guys/gals think
Something spinning (#29)
Posted by: David Location: Brevard/PSJ
Posted On 11:54AM 12-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNQQTNRRPNRTW*)

Check out this loop:


http://sgihss3f.wwb.noaa.gov/data4/images/TROPICAL/atl/nwatl-wv-loop.html


Up around 36/58 there seems to be a swirl sucking in some of the moisture from the North.
Any chance of it building and closing the dry air pocket?
Caribeban is the next hot spot-Flo will be Hurricane, too (#30)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 11:58AM 12-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

WE may have another storm form in the Caribbean this afternoon. There is already a circulation there and things look to be heating up pretty fast.

This could potentially be much more dangerous to us than Florence. Don't be surprised if a tropical storm is found down there by recon his afternoon.

IHS,

Bill
Western Carib (#31)
Posted by: Steve h.
Posted On 12:39PM 12-Sep-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

The western Caribbean should get our attention now, Flo will get picked up by a cold front eventually. As I posted this morning on ECTWC, this area concerns me greatly, and the forecasters didn't buy the ETAs output on this this morning(bringing winds up in the florida straits later in the period). They will change their tune in the afternoon forecast I'm sure. The same cold front that will pick up FLO may take this developing system north into the gulf and possibly NNE into the keys and points N and E ala Irene, but has the potential to become much stronger than Irene. I don't even like the name (i believe Gordon) of this potential system. Thunderstorms are blowing up rapidly in this area, and I agree with previous posts that, as a minimum, a TD will be found depending on the TOA of recon. Anyone in the gulf region and Florida needs to pay attention to this system. I'm sure more will be revealed later today. I don't see it heading west due to an upper level low (albeit weak) near the Yucatan, and the trough forecast to dig into the SE. Stay tuned!!! cheers!!!
Recon Report (#32)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 01:24PM 12-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNQWW*)

From what I could garner from the last recon report (not a vortex data message) Florence now has an eyewall (I think that's what they said)...would not be surprised to see her upgraded at 2 or 5; however, I am more interested in seeing what recon finds with the area in the Caribbean. That's closer to home, and Florence looks like she will head back out to sea. Colleen
Caribbean Disturbance (#33)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 01:43PM 12-Sep-2000 with id (QRYNQQUNUUNQQX*)

Agreed--this should require more attention than Florence. Indeed, this disturbance is more impressive as an unclassified system than Florence is as a named storm--though the latter clearly is much more organized.

However, I'd be wary of thinking this is going to be a big event. Many storms that develop from large, impressive disturbances turn out to be only weak to moderate systems. Likewise, just because the SSTs are high doesn't mean a major hurricane is a given. For now, let this current disturbance rest as an interesting low which has potential to become a classified system in the very near future.
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