CFHC Talkback For News Story #91:
Newest Talkback: 03:59 PM 09-13 EDT

Flo a Hurricane. Activity Picking Up.
04:50 PM EDT - 12 September 2000

As stated earlier, Florence is now a hurricane, but still is not threatening to land. However the West Caribbean System still bears watching as well as a system in the Central Atlantic.

More Later..

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)


Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

A nice animated Water Vapor Image
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

Show All Comments | Show Previous 32 Comments
Displaying Talkbacks #15 - #35 (of 35 total)
Colleen (#15)
Posted by: Gary Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 08:43PM 12-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVTNVNRTV*)

Have you seen any T#'s on 95L?
naval address (#16)
Posted by: William Location: Crystal River, Fl.
Posted On 09:00PM 12-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNRTUNVQNQQX*)

Thanks --Gary that address worked
Wow (#17)
Posted by: Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Newport News, VA (Currently)
Posted On 09:05PM 12-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRNUSNVY*)

I'm continued to be amazed by the quality of comments our site gets. Thanks all. These last few weeks have been busier than usual for me, so I hope you can forgive the lack of updates (or shorter updates).
Gary..Here's Your T#'s (#18)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 09:41PM 12-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNQXV*)

Latest:

Atlantic Ocean Basin:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM

12/2345Z 30.7N 73.6W T3.5/3.5 HR Florence
12/2345Z 17.6N 50.7W T1.0/1.0
12/2345Z 16.5N 82.1W T1.0/1.0

I don't think they update again until 06z.......
TWC Tropical Update (#19)
Posted by: clyde w. Location: orlando
Posted On 08:56AM 13-Sep-2000 with id (TNQWNRUPNU*)

OK, I was the one who made the reference to the TWC tropical update not being what it used to be. I want to clarify the statement (especially if Dr. Lyons or Dr. Hope visit). I still have the utmost respect for these two gentleman and the information that they provide, it is just that the production of those precious few minutes seems rushed and disjointed, which is likely no fault of their own. There are often times when they will point out a system of interest and then never refer to it again after the introductory statements. Ever since they changed from "Tropical Update" to "Storm Watch", it seems like a full overview of the tropical situation is what has been sacrificed. Not enough time to point out everything that may be happening. Just my humble opinion,I'd still take a job like theirs in a heartbeat!! Lucky guys :>)
GFDL Run 06Z Sep 13 (#20)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 08:58AM 13-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNTY*)

Here's what I found:

NCEP HURRICANE MODEL..GFDL MMM...FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION NAMELESS 95L



INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 13



FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 17.5 82.5

6 18.5 83.7 310./14.7

12 19.3 84.6 313./12.3

18 20.2 85.4 319./11.5

24 20.9 85.8 323./ 7.5

30 21.7 86.4 327./10.4

36 22.4 86.7 335./ 7.6

42 23.0 86.8 357./ 5.9

48 23.6 86.4 28./ 6.2

54 24.3 85.9 39./ 9.1

60 25.1 85.0 48./11.4

66 26.2 83.4 54./18.2

72 27.7 81.5 51./22.1

78 29.8 79.3 48./28.1

I plotted out these coordinates (and remember this is only ONE of the model runs--I am busy printing out the others, and I am not sure how reliable this one is, maybe someone could clue me in!!) and this run puts the storm directly over west central Florida in 72 hours...of course, the GFDL does not put out an intensity level, so I can't tell you that...I am now plotting out the other four and will let you know what I find.

Thois mornings perspective- and hindsight is 20/20! (#21)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 09:07AM 13-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Good Morning-

Guess I pulled the trigger too fast on the NW Carib system. I realized in looking at the satpics Tuesday afternoon that there probably was a potent mid-level circulation that was not on the surface. Even though earlier in the day it looked as if it was on the surface, the Hurricane Hunters found otherwise- that it was still at the m/l.

So, where are we today? The potent m/l circulation is still there, and convection is firing at the surface. I believe there is a good chance the circulation will form on the surface today and we will have a td.

I sometimes forget the 'rules' of this season:

1. Everything goes slower than you expect
2. Models are out to lunch
3. expect the unexpected

Also looks like the system east of the Leewards is getting it's act together.

Florence has a clearly defined eye and is still drifting.

The whole Atlantic basin is looking much healthier than it has in some time.

See ya later!

IHS,

Charles
GFDL (#22)
Posted by: StormHound (http://www.stormhound.homestead.com) Location: O-Town
Posted On 09:09AM 13-Sep-2000 with id (QRNSUNQWNR*)

Great job again, Colleen! As far as intensity in 72 hours, the models seem to point to a weak hurricane (80mph or so) in that time frame. Given the systems very slow development to this point, that would seem fairly accurate. Of course, we all know this can change quickly! My eye keeps getting drawn to the system in the Central/Western Atlantic. A bit smaller but it appears to have the opportunity to develop more quickly.
Colleen's find (#23)
Posted by: alan Location: orlando
Posted On 09:20AM 13-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)

Once again Colleen you have proven your worth as a storm watcher. That's a great find. Could you post the other models or direct us to where we might find them. Just remember, Orlando is about 28.5N 82W, so if I'm not mistaken, it has the storm entering south of Tampa, crossing Orlando and leaving north of Daytona. Wow.
Objective Aids for TD (AL9500) (#24)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 09:23AM 13-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNTQ*)

Here's some more:
.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION (AL9500) ON 20000913 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...

000913 0600 000913 1800 000914 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 17.5N 82.5W 19.0N 84.4W 20.4N 86.1W

BAMM 17.5N 82.5W 19.1N 84.7W 20.5N 86.9W

A90E 17.5N 82.5W 18.7N 83.8W 19.7N 85.1W

LBAR 17.5N 82.5W 18.8N 84.0W 20.2N 85.6W

SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS

...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...

000914 1800 000915 0600 000916 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 21.8N 87.6W 23.1N 88.5W 25.5N 88.3W

BAMM 21.9N 88.8W 23.1N 90.3W 24.5N 92.4W

A90E 20.9N 86.3W 22.3N 87.1W 24.9N 86.7W

LBAR 21.6N 87.1W 22.7N 87.8W 24.1N 87.0W

SHIP 51KTS 59KTS 73KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LAT0 = 17.5N LON0 = 82.5W DIR0 = 315DEG SPD0 = 9KT

LATM12 = 16.3N LONM12 = 81.2W DIRM12 = 310DEG SPDM12 = 10KT

LATM24 = 15.0N LONM24 = 79.5W

WND0 = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = -9NM RD34SE = -9NM RD34SW = -9NM RD34NW = -9NM

Ok, so you can see that most of these models have it either in the western gulf, middle of the gulf, eastern Gulf or southeastern Gulf in 72 hours, and SHIPS has it as a 73knt (83mph) hurricane...given that if it does move that slowly, I would think that by it sitting over the extremely warm waters of the Gulf could give it a higher intensity, but I am only speculating at this point. Time will tell....and yes, Stormhound, you can't help but notice the system out in the Atlantic ... looking very good this morning. Colleen

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....



Alan (#25)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 09:25AM 13-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNTQ*)

Yes, you are right about Orlando...GFDL does have it crossing the state near/around Daytona/Jax in 78 hours. I should have mentioned that on my original post!! Sorry!!!
GFDL (#26)
Posted by: Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Newport News, VA (Currently)
Posted On 09:37AM 13-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNRTVNRRPNRUP*)

This link shows what they were discussing quite well:

http://www.essc.psu.edu/rhart-cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2000091306-nameless95l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

- mac
test message update at 1200 utc (#27)
Posted by: Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 09:43AM 13-Sep-2000 with id (QRNQSNRTXNQR*)

Lastest test message at 1200 UTC looks like it has it going just a litle more to the west but farther south than the 0600 message

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/00091312
GFDL more (#28)
Posted by: Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Newport News, VA (Currently)
Posted On 09:45AM 13-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNRTVNRRPNRUP*)

The animation shows it entering around Sarasota and if projected a bit more, exiting the east coast around Cape Canaveral. Travelling through Sarasota, Manatee, Hardee, Polk, Osceola, and Brevard Counties.

Of course, this is all early speculation. But interesting none the least.
NWS melbourne (#29)
Posted by: alan Location: orlando
Posted On 09:59AM 13-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)

From the NWS office in Melbourne at 3:30 am
FRI-SUN...THU'S WX DILEMMA CARRIES WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. WHATEVER
DOES OR DOESN'T FORM OVER THE CARIBBEAN...THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF
IT'S ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELD IS IN SERIOUS QUESTION. MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS POINT ANYWHERE FROM THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE
BEING CARRIED WESTWARD INTO WESTERN GOMEX TO A SERIOUS SOAKING FOR
THE STATE. SCENARIO WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE EVOLUTION OF THE
RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE CONUS AND HOW FAST/STRONGLY THE
EASTERN CONUS LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES. IN ANY EVENT...A COOL FRONT
WILL BE DRIVEN SOUTH TOWARDS NORTH FLORIDA BY EARLY SATURDAY...AND
SOMEWHERE INTO NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA BY SUNDAY. THIS...IN AND OF
ITSELF...FAVORS GENERAL TREND OF INCREASING CLOUDS/PRECIP CHANCES.
SINCE A MAJORITY OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A
MORE WESTWARD SCENARIO WITH THE CARIBBEAN DISTURBANCE...WILL FAVOR
AS SUCH.


Future Gordon (#30)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 10:01AM 13-Sep-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

Thw western carib will have Gordon soon, probably later today. I am not buying the NNE track of the GFDL like I thought yesterday, although it it still possible depending on the EAsT coast long wave predicted to develop. It appears on vis sat pix to be moving a bit more west. But if it doesn't hit the yucatan peninsula, i also disagree with the GFDL intensity. This could be a much stronger system then the model is giving credit for, particularly if the longwave doesn't set up and it gets into the central gulf. TBD still, but the turn to the NE isn't as likely at this time IMO. CHeers!!
20/50 (#31)
Posted by: David
Posted On 10:27AM 13-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNQQTNRRPNRTW*)

The action going on at 20/50 I don't think is going to make it.


http://sgihss3f.wwb.noaa.gov/data4/images/TROPICAL/atl/catl-wv-loop.html


It looks like it is coming under shear, or is that "outflow".


My guess on the Caribbean is that we may see some rain and that all. Thats great cause, we are behind on the wet stuff.
NWS Forecast Discussions (#32)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 11:18AM 13-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNUS*)

This is from the after midnite discussion out of Key West
A TROPICAL WAVE SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NW AND REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. THE WAVE MAY DEVELOP INTO A DEPRESSION. AFTER THE WAVE REACHES
THE GULF...IT SHOULD TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST...AS THE WESTERLIES ALOFT BUILD SOUTHWARD. THE 00Z MODELS LOOK TOO QUICK
WITH THE WAVE AND DEVELOP IT TOO QUICKLY. THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THEIR TRACK WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...WITH THE ETA MODEL THE
SLOWEST. THE AVN HAS THE TIGHTEST CIRCULATION WITH THE SYSTEM. ACROSS THE FL KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS AND MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHEST WINDS AND PRECIP AMOUNTS WITH THE WAVE SHOULD BE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE STEERING FLOW FOR T-STORMS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT
FROM THE SE-S TODAY...AND NOT AS LIGHT FROM THE S-SW ON THURSDAY.

This is from the Tampa Bay Forecast Discussion this morning:

MARINE: NO CHANGES ATTM. PENDING NHC COORD CALLS...ESP AFT THE
RECON IS COMPLETE...MAY ELECT TO REMOVE THE DISCLAIMER IN THE
ZONE TEXT ITSELF. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE IT ALONE.

Ok, I looked, didn't see any disclaimer in the zone text, so I have no clue as to what they are talking about. I guess it's either good or bad LOL!!!


Animation (#33)
Posted by: StormHound (http://www.stormhound.homestead.com) Location: O-Town
Posted On 11:25AM 13-Sep-2000 with id (QRNSUNQWNR*)

Cool animation Mike! I continue to be amazed at the info that is available on the web. Sure makes storm tracking a whole lot more interesting than it was 10 years ago when all we got was new coordinates from the TV every few hours.
td#11 (#34)
Posted by: gary Location: jacksonville, fl.
Posted On 11:25AM 13-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQURNVUNR*)

From what I can see on the new sat pics. It looks like the disturbance in the carr. is growing stronger.
Does anyone else have any thoughts?
Carib and Atlantic (#35)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 11:59AM 13-Sep-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

We will have Gordon later today. Where it goes still TBD, but someone's going to get it, and it could be rather strong. The wave approaching the windwards is actually looking better now than it did this morning. Again, the focus shouldn't be on the convection, as it had none this morning, with the LLCC well west of the cloud cover. It seem's to be rebuilding convection again, and should be in an area more favorable for development. Don't write this one off, it may just be getting it's act together as it has now passed the area of shear to the north. I expect this to develop if upper level conditions stay favorable as they are forecast to. But the focus now should be on the Caribbean, as I see the potential for strong development later today and thru the next 84 hours. CHeers!!
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