CFHC Talkback For News Story #93:
Newest Talkback: 10:30 PM 09-14 EDT

TD#11 Forms in Extreme Western Caribbean
11:20 AM EDT - 14 September 2000

2:30PM Mini Update:
Recon has placed the system a little to the north and east of the previous position, which makes the time that the disturbance is over land less. Things are becoming interesting with this system for sure. I think it's going to have a hard time staying together the rest of the day, but tomorrow we could see something entirely different. Speculation aside, everyone around the Gulf will want to watch it closely.

Original Update:
Nearly moving over the Yucatan Peninsula, this system will be on the minds of many in the Gulf states over the next few days. Predictions vary from West Gulf to Florida. With the history of this odd season behind us, I will say that anything could happen. We'll be watching it closely. Hopefully a better idea of what will occur will happen later.

Most questions come from the center of circulation's location. Will it move over the peninsula? Will the center shift about. It's moving toward the Gulf, which allows it to strengthen. A cold front will be closeby by the weekend, which adds to the complexity.

Where will it go, and how strong will it be is pure speculation at the moment. The models aren't up to par yet with it. (mainly because of the location of the center)

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

A nice animated Water Vapor Image
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]


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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #49 (of 49 total)

Anything is possible (#1)
Posted by: Brian Location: Hollywood, Florida
Posted On 11:25AM 14-Sep-2000 with id (QSWNURNRPPNRPP*)


The way things have been going this season, I wouldn't be surprised if this system just moved into Mexico and disipated. On the other hand, it could move right up into New Orleans or even Naples, FL. I would say, no one, including the TPC has a clue where or when this one might die, explode, or strike.


Agree (#2)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 11:58AM 14-Sep-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)


I agree brian, this system is in early growth stage, and after looking at he sat loops, I believe the NHC put it too far west. There is even the possibility that the mid level circulation could pull the LLCC further north, or that it could re-develop further north. Hard to say right now. But it doesn't look to me like it's moving 305....more like 320/330. comments?

Agree with Steve in general (#3)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 12:21PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)


Very disorganized for a 'well organized tropical disturbance' a few hours ago.

IHS,

Bill

New center (#4)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 12:31PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)


You know, the close up loops make it look like a new center is forming over the Yucatan Channel, but there still seems to be a center right over Cozumel, looks like it is getting absorbed, or combining with the Yucatan Channel center (mid-level?), so maybe the system is stacking up? NOTE: if so, it will be relocated further N and E.

IHS,

Bill

Typical of this season. (#5)
Posted by: Jim Mogle Location: Kissimmee
Posted On 12:39PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNRTRNRRXNTP*)


IE, anything can happen and probably will. At this point I would not be surprised to go to bed tonight and wake up to a storm that pulled an Opal like explosion. At the same time, to wake up to nothing seems just as likely. If TD 11 gets clear from the Yucatan, the models may get a hand on it. Probably another 24 hours before we really know.

td 11 (#6)
Posted by:
Doug Spangler
Posted On 12:54PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQTTNQNTR*)


Visible satellite displays SW-NE shear over the system caused by proximity of UL low in SW Gulf...if this persists the convection to NE of center will continue to be pulled to NE while center flounders over land...not a healthy system and many problems for it in development...

TD#11 (#7)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 01:16PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (QRNWWNQSSNXR*)


Hello All,
TD#11 is showing some very slow movement and that is going to be the biggest problem in forecasting what this system will finally do over time. There is southwesterly shear to the systems northwest which could inhibit developement along with the center of TD#11 being over land for the next 12 hours or so. I still see TS Gorden in about 24 hours but after the next 24 hours everything is up in the air. My biggest concern is the forward speed should decrease over the next 24-36 hours allowing TD#11 to strengthen. Exactly where this system slows down will be very important on its future path.. All this is dependent on the strength of TD#11. If TD#11 becomes stronger a more ne coarse could develope. If TD#11 remains very weak than a more nw track will develope. Along with it slowing down means we will have to watch this system for awhile. If TD#11 slows down enough it may miss the trough and continue moving very slowly in the central gulf allowing it to strengthen before it decides what it will do. The whole picture is still very cloudy so everyone in the Gulf needs to watch this system closely. At this time there is no other center trying to form so a repositioning is not likely. I feel the only way this may happen is if TD#11 falls apart and a new center forms and there is a possibility this could happen as it moves over land but as I said too cloudy too forecast just watch and wait.....

latest recon (#8)
Posted by:
alan Location: orlando
Posted On 01:17PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)


The latest recon put the center of the storm at 20.7N and 87.19W. That means that the center has reformed or is moving slightly E of north. That will keep it off of land or on land for a very short time.
The wind speed was 15kts. Not very strong.

latest recon (#9)
Posted by: Andy
Posted On 01:31PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPXNUXNSWNUP*)


Alan, thats 20 degrees and 7 minutes or 20.1 N and 87.3 west.

andy (#10)
Posted by:
alan Location: orlando
Posted On 01:49PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)


That's the great thing about this message board. When you are wrong, someone is quick to correct it and you learn something new everyday. Thank you sincerely.
Does that mean that minutes are always rounded out to the nearest ten to get the decimal point?
And why wouldn't 19 minutes equal 83.2?
Just trying to learn.
Even with those coordinates, it's still not moving NW as the NHC says, but slowly NE.

Recon Coordinates (#11)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 01:55PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNRT*)


Yeah, I don't understand that either, Andy. How would 20.07 be rounded to 20.1N and 87.19 be rounded to 87.3? You would think it would be 87.2..in any case, this whole thing befuddles me. This morning they had it at 19N/85W at 1200 UTC...which had it directly in the Yucatan channel...how did it move so quickly and become so disorganized in 2 hours

Latitude and Longitude info (#12)
Posted by:
Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 02:10PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (QRNQSNRTXNQR*)


The latitude and longitude are input in degrees, so you might need to convert to degrees from
degrees:minutes:seconds. There are 60 seconds in 1 minute and 60 minutes in 1 degree. So, for
example:

65:45:36 south latitude converts to

-(65 degrees +
45 minutes * (1 degree/60 minutes) +
36 seconds * (1 minute/60 seconds) * (1 degree/60 minutes))

= -65.76 degrees latitude



Recon Coordinates (#13)
Posted by: Andy
Posted On 02:11PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPXNUXNSWNUP*)


the recon position was listed as:
20 DEG 07 MIN N
87 DEG 19 MIN W
This is approximately 20.1 N & 87.3 W
Its not being "rounded" to 20.1 it's being translated from Minutes to a fraction of a degree. Take the minutes and divide by 60 to get the decimal in degrees. For example 20 DEG & 30MIN would be 20 Deg & 30/60 deg or 20.5 deg. Hope I made sense......


Thanks (#14)
Posted by:
alan Location: orlando
Posted On 02:15PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)


But I still don't get it. I tried the formula and it didn't work out.
Keep trying. I'll learn eventually.

Now I get it (#15)
Posted by:
alan Location: orlando
Posted On 02:16PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)


Thanks Andy and Frank. Again this is what makes this web site so great.

Thanks Andy, Frank (#16)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 02:17PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNRT*)


Thanks...that makes more sense. BTW, TWC just confirmed that this is making a more NNW movement in the last 2 hours....taking it further from land in moving it more towards the Yucatan Channel (where it was orignally positioned this morning!!!) I don't think I will ever understand any of this. Colleen

Gordon heading to the Gulf...then....??????? (#17)
Posted by:
Rick Shade Location: Mobile, Al
Posted On 02:26PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNQRNQUNQPX*)


This thing will putz around down there...move north ever so slowly, and once it gets over the warm Gulf Waters..it will explode..or how about..dissippate? Who knows? One thing for sure...no one does..because if that front doesn't blow it out to the east...then it will have plenty of time to get it's act together. We shall see...I keep thinking the next 10 hours will tell the tale...but these things are better left to kindergarten kids to predict. The 'experts' can only guess. How are the upper level winds? Supposedly the outflow was going to improve over the next day...and then we could look for some possible rapid strengthening. It may well be that we will know what it does..after it does it. However, anyone in the gulf region...ought to be carefully monitoring this one.....I sure will be...

I Agree, Rick (#18)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 02:45PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNSV*)


I personally think there are several lows out there that are trying to come together...John Hope pointed to the area ABOVE the Yucatan tip as the llcc; was that a slip or where he believes it actually is? TWT...but everyone should be watching....Colleen

Can someone tell me? (#19)
Posted by:
David Location: Brevard/PSJ
Posted On 03:17PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNQQTNRRPNRTW*)


If you look at this loop:


http://sgihss3f.wwb.noaa.gov/data4/images/TROPICAL/atl/gmex-ir4-loop.html


What is making that huge mass of disturbance seperate and move to the East?
Only at the end of the loop does there appear to be circulation.

LATEST SATELITTE IMAGERY (#20)
Posted by: Gerry Location: Venice Fl
Posted On 03:19PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRVNRQTNYR*)


I THINK TD 11 IS A CLOSE RELATIVE TO DEBBY. IT NOW HAS LITTLE OR NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HER ALLEDGED LLCC. ALL OF THE CONVECTION IS OFF TO THE EAST, AND IF IT DOES TRACK OVER THE YUCATAN, CHANCES ARE IT WILL NOT SURVIVE. ON THE OTHER HAND THE GFDL MODEL HAS IT DOING EXACTLY WHAT IT IS DOING, DYING OFF OVER LAND, REDEVELOPING OVER THE GULF, AND HEADING FOR S.W. FLORIDA AS A CAT 1 STORM. I THINK DEBBY HAS ALL THE COMPUTER MODELS SCRATCHING THE BACK OF THEIR PROCESSORS.

latest GDFL (#21)
Posted by:
Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 03:19PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (QRNQSNRTXNT*)


The latest GDFL at 12Z 9/14 has this thing impacting land at 30.1N 87.4W (Al/Fla) line in 96 hours!!!

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/00091418

Then again, when has the models been right yet... Oh did I mention that ... NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS

td 11 (#22)
Posted by:
Doug Spangler Location: sarasota
Posted On 03:41PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQTTNQNTR*)


The WV loop shows the main plume of moisture streaming toward the Big Bend...the storm will remain east of that boundary...it is still a big question about where the main llcc will actually
stabilize if at all...the upper level flow is clearly sw-ne...the models taking this out to 90* are probably not going to hold up. EDS.

Seeing how..... (#23)
Posted by: Jim Mogle Location: Kissimmee
Posted On 03:47PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNRTRNRRXNW*)


recon relocated the center [I don't think it moved, just reformed] it seems to me that models run using the old inits are probably not going to be very useful. There appears to be some circulation in the visible. IR shots make it look like it has completely fallen apart.

New T#'s and Position (to the N and E) (#24)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:04PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNSY*)


Look at this my friends:

14/1745Z 29.2N 73.4W T2.5/3.0 TS Florence
14/1745Z 20.3N 86.8W T2.0/2.0


Link

This means that the center of TD #11 has moved NE of it's original position, putting it directly over Cancan (or somewhere there abouts), not on land at all. Whole new ball game. Watch for the NHC to move it's track a tad to the right at 5:00pm...It's not falling apart at all. it just wants to throw us off guard!!!

Colleen



Hats off to ya Colleen- you are a good 'data digger'! :) (#25)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 04:07PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)


IHS,

Bill

SURVIVE????? (#26)
Posted by: Gerry Location: Venice Fl
Posted On 04:13PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (VSNQVNQRRNWP*)


THIS ILL-DEFINED LLCC HAS TO TRAVERSE OVER APPROX. 65 KM OF LAND BEFORE RE-EMERGING OVER OPEN WATERS. IF IT WERE BETTER ORGANIZED, OR MOVING MORE QUICKLY, I COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL OF RE-DEVELOPMENT. BUT UNDER THE CIRCUMTANCES I FEEL THAT THE SYSTEM HAS LITTLE OR NO FUTURE. WHAT IS EVERYONES THOUGHT?

Did it move south or reform in 30 min. (#27)
Posted by: Gary (
http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 04:13PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRQVNXUNRSU*)


788

TPNT KGWC 141827

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SW OF CUBA

B. 14/1715Z (111)

C. 20.9S/1

D. 86.7W/1

E. FIVE/GOES8

F. T2.0/2.5/D0.5 25HRS -14/1715Z-

G. IR/EIR



38A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL. FINAL T

IS BASED ON DT AND PT.



MACHO




Jerry (#28)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:16PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNSR*)


That's according to the 11Am update..since then, it has been relocated several times...to the N and E away from land...so, yes, I think it will definitely survive.

MOVE?? (#29)
Posted by: Gerry Location: Venice Fl
Posted On 04:17PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (VSNQVNQRRNWP*)


GARY--WHERE DID YOU PICK UP THOSE NEW NUMBERS

Does anyone have the latest recon? (#30)
Posted by: Jim Mogle Location: Kissimmee
Posted On 04:21PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNRTRNRRXNW*)


Seems like the satellite derived products are bouncing a bit trying to find the center. I will say that if a stable llcc develops around Cancun, it does vastly improves the systems chance of survival. I also think that location increases the threat to Florida. The overnight hours could be very interesting.

Latest Recon (#31)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:25PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNSS*)


I have been trying to find it, without any luck. The latest report is on Flo...

Should be an interesting update at 5pm, ya think?

D11 (#32)
Posted by:
Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 04:26PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (QRNQSNRTXNQT*)


If the center is indeed at 20.9 and 87.6, my observations (based on the latest sat loop)are that the system as a whole is still moving slowly in a general NW to NNW direction.. and still off land, still looking pretty weak, but won't have to cross that much land to get to the Gulf.. what happens after that who knows?

Re: position (#33)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:29PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNSS*)


the last t#s given by NHC were at 1:45pm, 1/2 hour after Gary's find...

they were @ 20.3N/86.8W

according to that, it's not even over land.

Colleen (#34)
Posted by: Gary (
http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 04:34PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRQVNXUNRSU*)


NOAA SSD does not always get current info because they have to call and talk to someone who may have data thats 5min old LOL.

correction (#35)
Posted by:
Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 04:36PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (QRNQSNRTXNQT*)


I was looking at Gary's coordinates and meant 86.7 not 87.6. I'm not sure exactly where the center is but from what I see on the sat pixs it looks like that could be the general center area and it is still off the coast.

Gerry (#36)
Posted by: Gary (
http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 04:37PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRQVNXUNRSU*)


http://www.met.fsu.edu/Data/archive/weather/HURR/

11 OVER LAND (#37)
Posted by: Gary (
http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 04:44PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRQVNXUNRSU*)



TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL

5 PM EDT THU SEP 14 2000



VISIBLE IMAGERY AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE

CIRCULATION OF THE DEPRESSION IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN.


Over land (#38)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 04:51PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)


Looking at the latest pics, I could see a case being made for this...the center is somewhat elongated and diffuse.

IHS,

Bill

New discussion is interesting. (#39)
Posted by: Jim Mogle Location: Kissimmee
Posted On 04:53PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNRTRNRRXNSY*)


The llcc most be from recon or ground obs. If I had to lay down a buck, reformation of the llcc to the right under the mid level flow would be where I would lean. I guess I'll just have to wait and see how the next 24 hours pan out.

Martians Are Coming (#40)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:54PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNSQ*)


The martians are coming with this one, too. How can it be inland when the 2:oopm ...oh never mind. Who cares anymore.

INLAND??? (#41)
Posted by: Gerry Location: Venice Fl
Posted On 04:54PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRPNQPXNRTR*)


LATEST SAT WOULD INDICATE THAT ONLY A PORTION OF THE LLCC IS OVER LAND. MOST OF THE CENTER IS TO THE EAST OF THE NORTEASTERN MOST SECTION OF THE YUCATAN. THE

I Can't, I am Dumbfounded (#42)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:57PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNSQ*)


I can't respond, Gerry...too dumfounded...1st, it was at 2:00pm 20.3N/86.8W....now, they have it 20.3N/87.9W...it changed that fast in 2 hours

TRICKY (#43)
Posted by:
LONNY Location: HOLLYWOOD
Posted On 05:07PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNQUT*)


It does look like the surface center not the mid level center is over land in the sat loops. According to NHC when the two lows combine it should be out in the Gulf. This is definitely a tricky one and as I was reading everybodys post I realize it is changing by the hour.That is what makes this an interesting depression.We might wake up to Gordon or we might wake up to nothing.

Let's Finish the Statement by NHC (#44)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 05:09PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNSQ*)


VISIBLE IMAGERY AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION OF THE DEPRESSION IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN.HOWEVER...THE MID-LEVEL VORTEX IS NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER.

ASSUMING THAT THEY MOVE TOGETHER...THE MID-LEVEL CENTER WILL SPEND LITTLE TIME OVER LAND...AND THERE IS THE DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT A NEW CENTER COULD FORM TO THE RIGHT OF ONE WE ARE CURRENTLY TRACKING.

That's more like it..makes MUCH MORE SENSE.


I think I hurt my eyes.... (#45)
Posted by: Jim Mogle Location: Kissimmee
Posted On 05:21PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNRTRNRRXNTP*)


straining to see the llcc. I do see what they are talking about, though. Heck, this could be another Debby. Although, the midlevel circulation is looking a little better. IMHO, the to outcomes are either a complete loss of the system as the llcc disapates or the llcc reforms under the mid-level circulation. I really can't see the llcc remaining viable if it stays apart.

Mid Level (#46)
Posted by: on the coast
Posted On 05:24PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPWNQYQNQSNTY*)


I think we are getting thrown off by this mid level circ as we have been the last two days.


Bull cookies (#47)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: Palm Bay FL
Posted On 05:49PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNUT*)


If that TD is heading towards the western Yucatan I'll pack it in with this posting stuff...NO WAY. Vis imagery shows nothing to substantiate it. The banding features show that it is near the NE tip of the Yucatan. They must have taken this an hour before posting (the NHC). Sure doesn't look that way to me. Let me eat crow later, but I'll bet the farm it ain't headed into the BOC!!! Cheers!!

LLC (#48)
Posted by: Tinpusher
Posted On 05:54PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYVNSW*)


On the 3:50 pm central time update on The Weather Channel. The visible loop they had showed what looked like a circulation center southwest of Cozumel over land. What we are seeing east of Cancun is the mid level center.

Stand corrected (#49)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: Palm Bay FL
Posted On 06:30PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNQXR*)


There is a circulation over the Yucatan. Whether this will become the main feature is still the question. Again , a house divided cannot stand...unless the mid level circulation develops another LLCC. cheers!!


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