CFHC Talkback For News Story #93:
Newest Talkback: 10:30 PM 09-14 EDT

TD#11 Forms in Extreme Western Caribbean
11:20 AM EDT - 14 September 2000

2:30PM Mini Update:
Recon has placed the system a little to the north and east of the previous position, which makes the time that the disturbance is over land less. Things are becoming interesting with this system for sure. I think it's going to have a hard time staying together the rest of the day, but tomorrow we could see something entirely different. Speculation aside, everyone around the Gulf will want to watch it closely.

Original Update:
Nearly moving over the Yucatan Peninsula, this system will be on the minds of many in the Gulf states over the next few days. Predictions vary from West Gulf to Florida. With the history of this odd season behind us, I will say that anything could happen. We'll be watching it closely. Hopefully a better idea of what will occur will happen later.

Most questions come from the center of circulation's location. Will it move over the peninsula? Will the center shift about. It's moving toward the Gulf, which allows it to strengthen. A cold front will be closeby by the weekend, which adds to the complexity.

Where will it go, and how strong will it be is pure speculation at the moment. The models aren't up to par yet with it. (mainly because of the location of the center)

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

A nice animated Water Vapor Image
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]


Show All Comments | Show Previous 39 Comments

Displaying Talkbacks #29 - #49 (of 49 total)

MOVE?? (#29)
Posted by: Gerry Location: Venice Fl
Posted On 04:17PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (VSNQVNQRRNWP*)


GARY--WHERE DID YOU PICK UP THOSE NEW NUMBERS

Does anyone have the latest recon? (#30)
Posted by: Jim Mogle Location: Kissimmee
Posted On 04:21PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNRTRNRRXNW*)


Seems like the satellite derived products are bouncing a bit trying to find the center. I will say that if a stable llcc develops around Cancun, it does vastly improves the systems chance of survival. I also think that location increases the threat to Florida. The overnight hours could be very interesting.

Latest Recon (#31)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:25PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNSS*)


I have been trying to find it, without any luck. The latest report is on Flo...

Should be an interesting update at 5pm, ya think?

D11 (#32)
Posted by:
Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 04:26PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (QRNQSNRTXNQT*)


If the center is indeed at 20.9 and 87.6, my observations (based on the latest sat loop)are that the system as a whole is still moving slowly in a general NW to NNW direction.. and still off land, still looking pretty weak, but won't have to cross that much land to get to the Gulf.. what happens after that who knows?

Re: position (#33)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:29PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNSS*)


the last t#s given by NHC were at 1:45pm, 1/2 hour after Gary's find...

they were @ 20.3N/86.8W

according to that, it's not even over land.

Colleen (#34)
Posted by: Gary (
http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 04:34PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRQVNXUNRSU*)


NOAA SSD does not always get current info because they have to call and talk to someone who may have data thats 5min old LOL.

correction (#35)
Posted by:
Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 04:36PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (QRNQSNRTXNQT*)


I was looking at Gary's coordinates and meant 86.7 not 87.6. I'm not sure exactly where the center is but from what I see on the sat pixs it looks like that could be the general center area and it is still off the coast.

Gerry (#36)
Posted by: Gary (
http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 04:37PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRQVNXUNRSU*)


http://www.met.fsu.edu/Data/archive/weather/HURR/

11 OVER LAND (#37)
Posted by: Gary (
http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 04:44PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRQVNXUNRSU*)



TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL

5 PM EDT THU SEP 14 2000



VISIBLE IMAGERY AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE

CIRCULATION OF THE DEPRESSION IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN.


Over land (#38)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 04:51PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)


Looking at the latest pics, I could see a case being made for this...the center is somewhat elongated and diffuse.

IHS,

Bill

New discussion is interesting. (#39)
Posted by: Jim Mogle Location: Kissimmee
Posted On 04:53PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNRTRNRRXNSY*)


The llcc most be from recon or ground obs. If I had to lay down a buck, reformation of the llcc to the right under the mid level flow would be where I would lean. I guess I'll just have to wait and see how the next 24 hours pan out.

Martians Are Coming (#40)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:54PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNSQ*)


The martians are coming with this one, too. How can it be inland when the 2:oopm ...oh never mind. Who cares anymore.

INLAND??? (#41)
Posted by: Gerry Location: Venice Fl
Posted On 04:54PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRPNQPXNRTR*)


LATEST SAT WOULD INDICATE THAT ONLY A PORTION OF THE LLCC IS OVER LAND. MOST OF THE CENTER IS TO THE EAST OF THE NORTEASTERN MOST SECTION OF THE YUCATAN. THE

I Can't, I am Dumbfounded (#42)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:57PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNSQ*)


I can't respond, Gerry...too dumfounded...1st, it was at 2:00pm 20.3N/86.8W....now, they have it 20.3N/87.9W...it changed that fast in 2 hours

TRICKY (#43)
Posted by:
LONNY Location: HOLLYWOOD
Posted On 05:07PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNQUT*)


It does look like the surface center not the mid level center is over land in the sat loops. According to NHC when the two lows combine it should be out in the Gulf. This is definitely a tricky one and as I was reading everybodys post I realize it is changing by the hour.That is what makes this an interesting depression.We might wake up to Gordon or we might wake up to nothing.

Let's Finish the Statement by NHC (#44)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 05:09PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNSQ*)


VISIBLE IMAGERY AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION OF THE DEPRESSION IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN.HOWEVER...THE MID-LEVEL VORTEX IS NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER.

ASSUMING THAT THEY MOVE TOGETHER...THE MID-LEVEL CENTER WILL SPEND LITTLE TIME OVER LAND...AND THERE IS THE DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT A NEW CENTER COULD FORM TO THE RIGHT OF ONE WE ARE CURRENTLY TRACKING.

That's more like it..makes MUCH MORE SENSE.


I think I hurt my eyes.... (#45)
Posted by: Jim Mogle Location: Kissimmee
Posted On 05:21PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNRTRNRRXNTP*)


straining to see the llcc. I do see what they are talking about, though. Heck, this could be another Debby. Although, the midlevel circulation is looking a little better. IMHO, the to outcomes are either a complete loss of the system as the llcc disapates or the llcc reforms under the mid-level circulation. I really can't see the llcc remaining viable if it stays apart.

Mid Level (#46)
Posted by: on the coast
Posted On 05:24PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPWNQYQNQSNTY*)


I think we are getting thrown off by this mid level circ as we have been the last two days.


Bull cookies (#47)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: Palm Bay FL
Posted On 05:49PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNUT*)


If that TD is heading towards the western Yucatan I'll pack it in with this posting stuff...NO WAY. Vis imagery shows nothing to substantiate it. The banding features show that it is near the NE tip of the Yucatan. They must have taken this an hour before posting (the NHC). Sure doesn't look that way to me. Let me eat crow later, but I'll bet the farm it ain't headed into the BOC!!! Cheers!!

LLC (#48)
Posted by: Tinpusher
Posted On 05:54PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYVNSW*)


On the 3:50 pm central time update on The Weather Channel. The visible loop they had showed what looked like a circulation center southwest of Cozumel over land. What we are seeing east of Cancun is the mid level center.

Stand corrected (#49)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: Palm Bay FL
Posted On 06:30PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNQXR*)


There is a circulation over the Yucatan. Whether this will become the main feature is still the question. Again , a house divided cannot stand...unless the mid level circulation develops another LLCC. cheers!!


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