TD#11 Over Land or Not?
05:23 PM EDT - 14 September 2000
An interesting occurance is happening with Tropical Depression Eleven. Mainly the fact that its Low Level Circulation Center (LLCC) is over land, but the mid level circulation is over water. Since its a relatively weak depression, this brings out some interesting possibilities. Officially the low level center is over land, and surface observations verify this.
1. It could die out over night over land. This is possible, and from Debby earlier in the year it can be shown to happen. Not a likely solution, but possible none-the-less.
2. It could keep its circulation center and move back over land and eventually form into a tropical storm. (Slightly more likely).
3. Most interesting of all, it could reform its center under the much better defined mid-level circulation out over the water now and slowly work its way into the central Gulf. This possibility allows it to become a hurricane. And the official statement from the NHC has it somewhere between 2 and 3, and calls for a hurricane to form later on.
Therefore, tomorrow will be an interesting day to watch this system. Folks along the Gulf could see anything from a damp rainstorm, to hurricane force winds sometime next week. I'm tending to think this will be a slow mover, and taunt us for a while. Expect the unexpected with this system. Models are virtually no help at the moment because the center is questionable. The entire Gulf needs to watch it.
Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.A nice animated Water Vapor Image