CFHC Talkback For News Story #95:
Newest Talkback: 01:13 PM 09-09 EDT

Tropical Storm Floyd?
01:24 PM EDT - 08 September 1999

Now that we are reaching the peak of hurricane season (Sept. 10), the tropics are starting to fire up again. Tropical Storm Floyd is forecasted by the National Hurricane Center to go slightly north of the Leeward Islands and continue on its WNW track strengthening to a hurricane within 32 hours.
Lets hear the comments on where you might think Floyd will go..
Two other waves coming off the Africa coast bare watching.

Personal Reports from the Caribbean

For more information on TS Floyd see the Current Storm Spotlight for TS Floyd.
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Weather Channel Caribbean Sat Image
Intellicast Caribbean IR Loop
Intellicast Atlantic IR Loop

More Sat images: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.


- [jc]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #17 (of 17 total)
floyed (#1)
Posted by: scott Location: tampa,fl
Posted On 02:09PM 08-Sep-1999 with id (VSNRSNQXWNRQW*)

I found this site and would like to give you my best perdiction for this eventual major hurricane.
I have a high rate of forcasting the strength and
direction of 80% of the tropical storms that
develop over the last 3 years.

Now with Floyed,,,,,,upper level wind flow is
very favorible for devolopment,,also with warmer
waters underneath it,,Floyed should reach hurricane status as of late Thursday afternoon.
I see a possible quick strengthening with Floyed
over the thursday night period and thru friday Night,,,,,,some sharing will develop with a upper
level low over eastern Cuba, and a trough coming of the east coast on saturday,.
Now with the track its alittle bit harder,,,most models show the trough coming off the eastern US coast to lift this system up to the North ,,,,but when is the question?? But is
this the real question , or should the question
be how fast will the trough move out
Floyd and Movement (#2)
Posted by: Ronn Raszetnik, Jr. Location: Largo, Florida
Posted On 02:19PM 08-Sep-1999 with id (RPWNVYNTSNSY*)

Satellite and Water Vapor imagery over the past six to twelve hours strongly indicate that Floyd is well on his way to becoming the next major hurricane of the season. Although Floyd still has some wrapping up to do, I expect to see very rapid development increasing as time passes. The latest color-enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows and augmenting batch of shower and thunderstorm activity in the storm's western quadrant. With a high pressure system aloft moving in tandem with Floyd, this convective activity will soon fill all quadrants of the storm alongside intensification.

Now, I'll take a stab a Floyd's future movement. I think that the forecast track over the next 60 to 72 hours is rather clear for the most part. A west-northwest heading should persist through the period bringing the storm northeast of the Leeward Islands. The forecast after 72 hours becomes somewhat uncertain. Several key factors and questions in the future movement of Floyd are:

1. Trough over the Caribbean Sea

Will this propagate a northwest motion?

2. Trough exiting the U.S. east coast

Will this be strong enough/south enough to pull Floyd northward?

3. Upper low near Bermuda

How much of a weakness will this create and will this weakness be enough to generate a northwest movement?

4. Floyd's own environment

Will Floyd strengthen enough to create his own environment, hence decreasing the effects of the features mentioned above?

5. Atlantic ridge

How stubborn will the Atlantic ridge be?

It is impossible to answer these questions at this time, but I will conjecture a little and give you my opinion. In my opinion, Floyd will be hard-pressed to avoid the influence of the strong longwave trough that will exit the U.S. east coast. Coincidentally, I favor a northward motion over time. However, if Floyd instensifies to Category 4 strength, the possibility is open for him to generate his own makeshift steering environment--not atypical for violent storms--and diminish the effects of the steering features.

All in all, it is entirely too early to forecast the movement of this potentially violent hurricane. Past experiences show us that forecasting this far in advance is often futile.

God Bless You,
Ronn Raszetnik, Jr.
# 95 Floyd (#3)
Posted by: j noon Location: Lauderdale
Posted On 03:37PM 08-Sep-1999 with id (RQVNWWNRQQNQTQ*)

Floyd is out of here! Bet on this folks every storm which develops in the next 2.5 weeks in the Atlantic will recurve. Have a peek at
climatology. First Cindy, then Dennis now Floyd! The Atlantic ridge is going to be shredded!!! Check history, the tracks retro from west to east!

FLOYD (#4)
Posted by: Mike Anderson
Posted On 06:13PM 08-Sep-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNTS*)

Good afternoon all i have read some of the postings and some are right on and others , well you know, Lets get into FLOYD , the center is still hard to locate but i think in time this will change, Floyd has started to respond to the middle level cutoff low near bermuda and the upper level trough extending south into the central caribbean, I think this will be enough to pull the system north of the lesser antilles.the WNW motion will hold, however BAMM models indicate a rather sharp turn to the north after 72, As far as the east coast and FLOYD, well the biggest player will be the very major trough that will be expected to move off the east coast, the forecast package has been shifted to the left of the Guidance between the LBAR and the GFDL, In short im not expecting FLOYD to get any farther than 70 west before a turn does take place, in a nut shell FLOYD will be a fish, thats it ill post later tonight Mike Anderson Florida WX.
WSW? (#5)
Posted by: SirCane
Posted On 10:17AM 09-Sep-1999 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNWT*)

This morning it looks like Floyd is moving WSW and getting close to the islands.
Apology to the masses (#6)
Posted by: Richards
Posted On 10:56AM 09-Sep-1999 with id (RTNYUNRTSNUW*)

A few days ago I posted a message on this site that generated quite a stir amoungst some of you. I would like to take this opportunity to apologize to everyone here; particularly Mr. Anderson. There was absolutely no intent to insult you, question your qualifications or, for that matter, create any hard feelings. To be quite honest, I thoroughly enjoy reading the commentary and best-guess forecasting.

Keep up the good work!





floyd`s left turn. (#7)
Posted by: duke
Posted On 11:21AM 09-Sep-1999 with id (RTNRXNUXNVS*)

Lets hope the latest IBAR&GFDL models are wrong!
Floyd moving left? (#8)
Posted by: Bill
Posted On 11:37AM 09-Sep-1999 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNUQ*)

Hey Duke...

what do LBAR and GFDL say!:)

Bill
floyd moving west (#9)
Posted by: clyde w Location: orlando
Posted On 11:38AM 09-Sep-1999 with id (TNQWNRUPNU*)

Yes, the latest statement shows Floyd moving west towards the islands, although the general track should remain WNW for a while. The latest LBAR is rather ominous in turning the storm back to the west just north Puerto Rico. I know it's too early to say for sure, but this storm may be a major story late next week for the east coast. Does anyone have any ideas on how strong this hurricane might get ( I say hurricane b/c I can't believe it isn't already one looking at the latest sattelite imagery. This is a very impressive storm!
W Floyd (#10)
Posted by: SirCane
Posted On 12:45PM 09-Sep-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNST*)

The way I see it anyone from Texas to Carolinas better keep a close watch. From what I se at 11 AM its all changing!
GFDL and LBAR (#11)
Posted by: Ronn Raszetnik, Jr. Location: Largo, Florida
Posted On 12:55PM 09-Sep-1999 with id (RPWNVYNTSNYU*)

Hello everyone. The situation with Floyd has indeed changed with more separation among computer models--namely the GFDL and LBAR. The LBAR moves the storm west-northwest and veers it west during the end of the forecast period. The GFDL swiftly moves Floyd northwest and then rather sharply turns the storm due west. NHC has also noted in their discussions that the trough developing over the eastern U.S. may not be strong enough to re-curve the storm.

Well, time is short so I will post later with my thoughts.

God Bless You,
Ronn Raszetnik, Jr.
FLOYD (#12)
Posted by: Mike Anderson
Posted On 01:50PM 09-Sep-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYVNUX*)

Good afternoon we need to get right in to it with FLOYD, First to Mr Richards thank you and i need to say you did no harm this is america and you have that right to question anything you like, im not angry with anyone on this site at all and i would like to say sorry if i sounded that way it's just not me, again sorry to all. now looking at FlOYD today i do not see the turn as sharp as i thought yesterday so im taking back the fish forecast, i do however think a watch shopuld be needed for the islandes later today or tonight, as for the US it now does look that FLOYD will get under the trough and could impact the south east later in time, i will be going over all the new information later tonight and will have a better pick on just where i think he will go thats it for now Mike Anderson Florida Wx.
Almanic (#13)
Posted by: SirCane
Posted On 02:55PM 09-Sep-1999 with id (QURNQVSNQYUNQWV*)

The Alminac says somthing about Florida being hit by a Hurricane second week of September, just something to think about.

SirCane.
Floyd Recon (#14)
Posted by: Bill
Posted On 03:13PM 09-Sep-1999 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNUQ*)

I was looking over the recon returns and I notice two interesting things. One is, to this point, they have only found max FL winds of 50Kts, max 39 kts surface winds! But, at least one of the fixes also has 997 MB surface extrap pressure. Seems like Floyd's outflow is being interefered with in some ways, also looks like a little NW-W shear is impinging on the system.
Second, it seems they have relocated the storm somewhat northward (latest fix about 18 N, 56.4 W), but it also looks like Floyd may be jogging a bit to the NW.

Bear in mind the foregoing are based only only what I can access, not all ther recon data appears publicly all the time! I agree the models are beginning to show a bit of a westward bend, we will have to watch this.

Got to go now, here in Tally our own severe weather is kicking up, I have no desire to be fried by lightning!

IHS,

Bill
Floyd (#15)
Posted by: scott Location: tampa
Posted On 03:17PM 09-Sep-1999 with id (VSNRSNQXWNUR*)


Well as I stated with the first add in here on
Floyd, theh intensity level is on schedule and the
movement is right on also,,,,,,I have a 80% accuracy rate over the past 3 years so how I
forcast storms are really kinda simple to..As of now alot of forcasters are seeing what I said over 36 hours ago,,,a west-northwest path,,,slowly
slowing with a slight nudge to the northwest and north of the islands and giving them Tropical storm force winds in the squall bands. Central pressure of the storm now is 997,,,and a readjustment is around 18 deg n, 56.5w. This is
not a northwestward track in the recent 6hrs,,this is just confirmed position of the
center. a west-westnorthwest pattern for the next
12-18hours is expected with a more northwest component on friday expected,,,,,,now with his direction he should be just east and north of the us-british virgin islands on friday, and friday night. Now the strom should make hurricane status by 11pm tonight,,,,I feel it will be close as off 5pm but only 70mph. Hurricane watches should be post to a few islands near the path as of 5pm.

Now with the US question ,,,I will stay with what
I see and forcast(which many are now picking up on. First the upper level low by bermuda is moving out as expected,,,,,floyd is soon interacting with the carribean trough and bumping it north of west,,,,,,now the first object in the
way of Floyd is the first trough exiting the US...this should slow him down on friday Night and into Saturday,,,,,,he should be around 90-100mph byt then with some sharring,,,,but this trough is weakening and moving out by satn. and sunday,,,,,,the turn to the west again should take place sat night and continue thru sunday night,,,,intense strengthing should occur most
likely sunday night,,,before the west turn Floyd should be around 22n-24n,,,64-67w,,, and 90kts,.
Floyd should increase in strength with winds of
140mph by Monday morning,,being around the Bahamas
or around 24-26n and 75-77w...This track could be alittle farther south or north by 2-3 deg,,,or even alittle back or say 73-75w. A turn to the westnorthwest will take place with the 2nd trough on monday and turn northwest by tuesday,,,it could enter the gulf orthreaten up to South carolina,,,but that's way too far out still,,we all have to wait to see how much affect the first departing trough will have to see how far up or down in latitude it will be by the west turn,,,,,,next update for me is 9-10-99 scott
Recon update (#16)
Posted by: Bill
Posted On 03:36PM 09-Sep-1999 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNUQ*)

2:50 pm...68 kts found about 60 miles N of the center, roughly.....

Bill
Huh? (#17)
Posted by: Bill
Posted On 04:13PM 09-Sep-1999 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNUQ*)

34 N, 40W...take la look, maybe a depression forming far north...nice CDO expanding, water is warm there ....for something completely different!

Bill
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