CFHC Talkback For News Story #97:
Newest Talkback: 10:09 AM 09-10 EDT

Hurricane Floyd Forms East of the Leeward Islands
07:22 AM EDT - 10 September 1999

Interesting changes have been happening since yesterday. It appears the chances for a US landfall are going up, but it is still not certain. People from here in Florida up to southern New England will have to watch this storm as it moves westward. A threat to Florida is still somewhat unlikely, but it will become more clear in about 3 days or so.

Once again it depends on a weather trough moving out and a ridge taking its place. Some models (GFDL) move it dramatically westward, while others (NOGAPS) Keep it off the coast, but move it closer to New England. Indeed some people have noted a similar setup to some of the big storms that have hit the Northeast US. But that seems to be mostly speculation at this point. The Leeward islands will get clipped, but I don't think they will deal with the eyewall effects. For intensity, I think we'll see a major hurricane out of Floyd. At least a mid-range category 3. If landfall occurs it won't be until 4-5 days from now (assuming it does not stall). Once again, the entire southeast coast, from Florida all the way up to New England should be watching this one.



Personal Reports from the Caribbean -- Caribbean Hurricane Page

For more information on Hurricane Floyd see the Current Storm Spotlight for Hurricane Floyd.
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
GFDL Model & Plot
Weather Channel Caribbean Sat Image
Intellicast Caribbean IR Loop
Intellicast Atlantic IR Loop

More Sat images: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.


- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #2 (of 2 total)
Thanks (#1)
Posted by: mary Location: Lakeland
Posted On 07:49AM 10-Sep-1999 with id (QRNWWNQVRNUS*)

I wanted to just say thanks for the new site from the Caribbean Islands. It is a marvelous tool for seeing and learning about the attitudes and preparations being made for Floyd. Also is there any way you could print any other model locations?
I tend to avoid any that you have to down load to a file, since I am barely computer literate. But any other readable models would be appreciated if there are any. I am finding that the computer satellites and upddates start to lag when there is a real threat, and I would like to test my ability to predict against what is said officially. It is the way I learn. Again, thanks for all the effort that is put into this web site.
A HARD FORECAST TO MAKE (#2)
Posted by: Mike Anderson
Posted On 01:09PM 10-Sep-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNQVR*)

Well good afternoon i have been looking at all kind's of thing's since last night, im really not sure i want to make this call but im going to go out a bit and if i hang my neck well ill just live with it, Based on what i have been seeing FLOYD is undergoing a bit of tug of war right now, this trend should lesson later today with the northward jog's, As i stated last night a rather strong ridge is going to be building in the ATLANTIC at 72, this ridge is the classic set up to move FLOYD due west, an upper level low parked in the southern gulf will also play a roll, last but not least FLOYD will have a lot to do with his own movement later in time, As strong as the system is forecasted to be i can only think it will follow the least path of resistance, everything im seeing would indicate that FLOYD will pose some kind of threat to south central FLORIDA, this is not carved in stone but it may be later in time, As for the secound late trough it should not really do all that much to FLOYD as he will at that time be a classic major Hurricane, I feel strong in what im seeing and saying that i do feel FLOYD is likley to take a track across the sunshine state and on into the Gulf of mexico, I would want all partys intrested to please keep an eye on this system untill more clear information comes in , but for now thats what i think will happen twith FLOYD, Two weeks ago i forecasted a brush with DENNIS while others did notsee that, well indeed a brush was felt in florida but just a bit farther than i forecasted, i really dont want to scare anyone i just want you all to be ready it this forecast comes intio play later in the week, As for TWC forecasting N.C.well i think they go that way because the last few systems have, well i need to run ill post again later and if i see a change ill post it, again please dont take what im saying as GOD because it's not have a great day Mike Anderson Florida WX.
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