CFHC Talkback For News Story #99: Newest Talkback: 04:52 AM 09-17 EDT

Gordon
10:53 AM EDT - 16 September 2000

update 2:30: Tropical Storm Warnings in effect from Bonito Beach to Suwanee River.
update Noon: Recon has found Gordon's pressure to be 986mb. A drop of 6mb. Gordon is strengthening.

Sorry for the Headline mistake. Gordon is still a Tropical Storm with 65mph winds. Hurricane watches have been extended Suwanee River to Apalachicola. Intensification is expected and Gordon should be a Hurricane soon. The NHC still feels it will landfall around the Big Bend, but that is subject to change. I still feel the track will move more east. What do you think?

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for TD#11. From Michael Bryson.

Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports

Satellite images at: [Visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [Infrared] (infrared), and [Water Vapor] (water vapor)
Loops: Visible Loop - Infrared Loop - Water Vapor Loop

A nice animated Water Vapor Image
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)
StormCarib.com has reports from folks in the Caribbean islands themselves and is worth checking out when storms approach the Caribbean.
Ouragans.com Français -- L'information sur des ouragans comprenant beaucoup de liens.
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [jc]

Show All Comments | Show Previous 39 Comments

Displaying Talkbacks #36 - #56 (of 56 total)

GORDEN STILL A TS,,NHC NEEDS HELP.... (#36)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER)
Posted On 04:56PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRSNQXTNVT*)

Would anyone with no experience like to be head of the NHC

Current position (#37)
Posted by: Barbara (http://†ÿ€©@hè) Location: Mobile
Posted On 04:58PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRQTNTUNQXX*)

Ah Hah! 4 pm position confirms what I thought I saw.......more NORTH than East!! (24.8/85.7) NOW WHAT!

Scott (#38)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 05:09PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNTV*)

I think they are doing drugs at NHC. If this thing comes anywhere near me and they have screwed it up, I will personally drive down to Miami to tell Max exactly how I feel. This is absolutely irresponsible and incorrect...unbelievable to say the least. This thing is going to hit, and it may be a hard hit, and IMO, they are screwing around down there...

as for the jog to north, that is just what it is: a jog...it jogged to the east earlier, so beware.

I CANNOT ABSOLUTELY BELIEVE THAT THEY HAVE NOT UPGRADED THE WATCHES TO WARNINGS FOR THE GULF COAST (of course, unless I missed it)...Scott, great job, and I think you are right on.

Colleen (#39)
Posted by: John C. (http://www.flhurricane.com) Location: Cocoa, FL
Posted On 05:09PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRTNXY*)

Yes this is what they said in the 11am advisory, (could it have been a typo?: Rember this was the 11 am Governemet Discussion.

HOWEVER...INTENSITY GUIDANCE MAKES GORDON A HURRICANE AND SO DOES
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST

Go figure!

Govenment (#40)
Posted by: John C. (http://www.flhurricane.com) Location: Cocoa, FL
Posted On 05:11PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRTNXY*)

Now I had a few typo's myself in that last post ie
Remember

Government

tropical storm (#41)
Posted by: William Location: Crystal River, Fl.
Posted On 05:22PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNRQUNRUUNYW*)

If Gordon is still a Tropical Storm!!! Then im George Washington!!!!!!!!!! This is a Hurricane!!!!

Chat Tonight Starting At 9pm EDT (#42)
Posted by: John C. (http://www.flhurricane.com) Location: Cocoa, FL
Posted On 05:25PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRTNXY*)

Join in on the Chat tonight at 9 and lets talk about Gordon and Uncertainty of its track.
Everyone is welcome to join in from the Novice to the Hurricane Experts..

Northern Sheer... (#43)
Posted by: Debbie Location: PSJ, Florida
Posted On 05:30PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRTNSW*)

The local news (ABC) stated that the northern sheer of Gordon is hindering its strengthening (or slowing its development). I would like to know how the forcasters can point out the front's sheering powers but not its direction-pulling features

Statistics (#44)
Posted by: John C. (http://www.flhurricane.com) Location: Cocoa, FL
Posted On 05:37PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRTNXY*)

For those interested in who looks at this site:

These statistics are updated every hour and resets late every Sunday
night.

Click
here

Yeah, I Have A Comment (#45)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 05:37PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNQWX*)

They are inept. to say the least....if Flo is a hurricane with pressure higher than Gordon, how does Gordon stay a TS

bouy data (#46)
Posted by: ken Location: orlando
Posted On 05:49PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPWNVYNQQSNRSY*)

great site guys, been using it since last year and rec to everyone. Interesting data on the bouy data site. The 2 southernmost bouys in the gulf are reportin drastically different info. The bouy that is directly in line with Ft. Myers/Tampa seems to be indicating that
Gordon is headed in that direction.

Colleen for NHC !! (#47)
Posted by: David
Posted On 05:55PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNQQTNRRPNRTW*)

I vote for

Colleen

for the new leader of NHC. :)

Good Link (#48)
Posted by: David
Posted On 06:00PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNQQTNRRPNRTW*)

http://www.intellicast.com/LocalWeather/World/UnitedStates/Southeast/Florida/Sarasota/1kmStormWatchLoop/

nhc reasoning (#49)
Posted by: Frank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 06:06PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)

hey, quit knocking the nhc. colleen, usually i complain about little quirks they have too, but you guys are getting a tad rough. those guys are the pros, after all. pressure/wind relationships arent always going to work out the same way, if you adjust for a flight level wind of 70 kt, take 90%, youre still a strong tropical storm. yeah, the pressure is low, but remember josephine in '96? it had a 981 and wasnt quite a hurricane. its some baroclinic effect..
yes, there should be hurricane warnings up by now, but some models are having the trough shear to the north butcher gordon.. having considered previous storms this season it should be taken as a serious mitigating factor in gordon's development. the pressure curve is shallowing its descent for now it seems, so gordon may stay right around min. hurricane strength for a while.. but if it doesnt entrain dry air from the trough to the north of have its outflow disrupted, it could go up a category. the 100mph by tomorrow morning scott calls for strikes me as an overestimate, considering that an eye feature isnt present and the cdo is only quasi symmetric.. and the outflow is pretty much one sided as well. this storm is organized but not yet a very dangerous system. it only has the potential to be one. if it slows and deepens again like it did this morning we may be looking at a major hurricane landfall early monday. otherwise expect a minimal hurricane late sunday. location should be dixie county, near cross city and cedar key, either way. instead of complaints, i wanna hear what you all predict.
have a good one, folks. enjoy the breeze.

Gordon and the NHC (#50)
Posted by: BillD Location: Miami
Posted On 06:16PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNXVNQXSNVV*)

For what my comments are worth, I think everyone is overreacting to the NHC forecast. They are professionals that have been doing this for many years. It is just not one individual sitting there making up whatever they feel like saying. And this system, for anyone that has been watching it all day, has been wobbling all over the place. There are differences of opinion on the future track even on this discussion list.

As far as the 11:00 AM information, the reference to hurricane status was in the "discussion" not in the public advisory. I could see where dropping one word from that statement could change its meaning, from statement to speculation. Were they considering classifying Gordon as a hurricane then? Most likely. Did they? No. Did they screw up in publishing that statement? Yes. Should they have published a correction? Yes. Should they have classified Gordon as a hurricane at 5:00 PM? Maybe, its still borderline in my novice opinion.

But for everyone thinking that Gordon is going to plow across central Florida.. the latest visible, and even the latest IR from NWC, look to me like Gordon is now taking an almost due north track... just like the NHC has been saying all along.

But of course by the time I hit "Post" on this message, it will all have changed again...

Thank you (#51)
Posted by: Jonathan
Posted On 06:21PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RTNYUNRSUNRPU*)

Thank you Frank!!!
I know that you all mean well but the NHC guys are some of the best metrologists in the country! They went through years of collage to earn there degrees in Tropical Forcasting so stop hitting them so hard! There is alot of Physical Vectors and Thermal Dynamic's that go into a forcast. There are alot of different wind levels that influence the overall steering patterns of tropical systems. Think about these factors and then make your predections!

Frank (#52)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 06:24PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNQWX*)

Sorry I ticked you off..but, they are inept. Now, at 6:oopm it is a hurricane, and the local forecasters here in Tampa are calling for a hurricane in the 120-130 mph range. Take it or leave it...they have screwed up big time. Sorry you don't like what I say, but that's ok. We all have our own opinions. In the end, someone will be right or wrong....in the meantime, go back and take a look at the NHC'S RECORD...they have screwed up big time with Florida storms...no offense taken, no offense given...just giving it straight from my gut.

120-130 mph????? (#53)
Posted by: nick
Posted On 06:53PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNQWS*)

which local forecasters said that

PEOPLE AND NHC (#54)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER)
Posted On 07:44PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRSNQXWNS*)

Some of us are meteorologist on here,,,and now it is a hurricane,,,,but the reason some of us are upset at the NHC is cause they know its going to be a hurricane any time,,which it was upgraded,,but the fact remains,,,for only 5mph they might as well made it a 75mph hurricane to give people alittle more scare and warning to get ready since it will be around 100mph by morning.,
scottsvb

Nick (#55)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 09:23PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNTY*)

They said it on the TB 8 channel....120-130mph...believe it or not...that's your decision.

Mandatory Evacuations? (#56)
Posted by: Mike Location: Valrico
Posted On 12:52AM 17-Sep-2000 with id (RTNYRNRQWNX*)

Long time viewer of this site and I value the different comments from all the contributors ranging from weather buffs to weather pros. My question is why didn't they order mandatory evacuations with the posting of Hurricane Warnings at 11:00 P.M.? If Gordon comes ashore say, just north of Tampa Bay (i.e. Tarpon Springs which is in warning area) even as a cat 1 storm, a lot of people would be under water in Pinellas and Hillsborough Counties. So far they have only given voluntary evacuation orders for zone 1 areas and we are less than 24 hours from expected landfall. I know they are expecting actual landfall farther north but this seems to be dangerous and can mislead people into a false sense of security that they are not in danger.

Show All Comments | Show Previous 39 Comments

Return to Central Florida Hurricane Center Main Page