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Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued for area in the East-Central Atlantic, only with 10% chance for development, not expected to do much.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 238 (Idalia) , Major: 238 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 238 (Idalia) Major: 238 (Idalia)
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Archives 2010s >> 2010 Forecast Lounge
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Joeyfl
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Posts: 133
Loc: St.Pete,FL
GFS Long Range Outlook
      #89603 - Sun Sep 19 2010 09:26 PM

With Igor moving into Bermuda as we speak thankfully as a minimal Cat 1, Julia is on her way out, and looks like we will have Lisa in 12-24 hours near Cape Verde islands, but as has been the case for this season so far it looks like early model runs on it will keep it likely out to sea. Of more interest and I hate to even speculate about something so far in the future but I have been looking at the GFS for the last few days and it continues to show a significant hurricane forming in the central/northwestern Caribbean. The model has flipped back and forth on the possible timeline from week from now to 10 or so days. This is of coarse understandable with a system thats not even there but the GFS usually does a half way decent job when it shows something that large forming 7-10 day range. It is also interesting to note that pressures are forecasted and are low in the caribbean through the next week and time will tell what comes of it. Other models hint at is as well so lets watch and see as this busy season rolls on...

(Post moved to the appropriate Forum.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Sep 19 2010 10:06 PM)

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