cieldumort
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A healthy tropical wave and associated surface low that rolled into the far eastern Atlantic a few days ago has acquired sufficient organized convection tonight to be classified a tropical depression.
FOUR is expected to become Tropical Storm Dorian, and it is likely to continue moving in a general west-northwest motion for the next few days. After that, models begin diverging some more, but not altogether significantly.
This is where to put mid to long range forecasts on TD4's potential for further development and forecast track. TD4-related longer range model output discussions are also appropriate here.
Edited by MikeC (Wed Jul 24 2013 02:38 PM)
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ftlaudbob
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I see the keeps it as TS through the forecast period.Their thinking must has changed about the conditions ahead of the system.
It is looking very healthy right now: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/98L/imagery/rbtop-animated.gif
Edited by ftlaudbob (Wed Jul 24 2013 10:46 AM)
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MikeC
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TD#4 is pretty small area wise, so it's more susceptible to intensity swings, but right now it seems to be strengthening quite a bit more rapidly than normal, but I doubt it can hold this look for long.
Very interesting day for this storm, regardless.
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danielw
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I'm seeing model output for TS Dorian on Clark's website. No update on page, yet.
System looks well organized on visible sats.
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MikeC
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It's true, the models initialized the system as a 45MPH tropical storm, so it's more than a little likely it'll be at least that at 11AM. The satellite photos also go along with that.
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MichaelA
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Another one with a relatively high translational speed. I wonder if this will be the trend throughout this season, or will it relax some in August/September? At any rate, doesn't that high speed hinder development somewhat?
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Michael
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LoisCane
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Because of the low water temperatures and poor presentation ...until last night... of the system they went conservative with their forecast intensity. Must remember that many of the models yesterday didn't recognize it and few kept it alive more than a very short period.
When you looked at her yesterday visually w/o relying on the models you could see the structure setting up and the long tail dipping down into the ITZ which is a classic Cape Verde signature.
If you looked at the WV loop you could see that darkest, driest air was moving to the West.
Sometimes we rely too much on models. Then again the models insisted she was forming back when we couldnt' even see her and ... continuity in modeling means a lot even though they dropped it yesterday.
He is going into dry air and lower water temperatures. And, he is small. The stronger he gets now before he hits the worst of the negative conditions will help it down the road.
Now the models are intensifying it near PR into a Hurricane.
With models it's best to watch the patterns vs anyone model run.
Compelling storm to watch ... and yes I would say it's a sign of things to come.
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MikeC
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The models with Dorian this afternoon suggest more chance of a recurve before the US than earlier, and with how far north this system is already I'd probably lean toward that ultimately at this point.
It'll be close, and may go back and forth, but climatology and the currently globals *slightly* lean toward a recurve before getting to the US coast, although the NE islands and Bahamas are still to close to call.
The other storm, 99L, will be something for Bermuda to watch, but it will likely stay well east of the island.
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ftlaudbob
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If she can survive the next three days or so,we COULD have our first hurricane of the season.Right now she is starting to feel the effects of lower SST's and higher wind shear.You can see that here: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/imagery/rbtop-animated.gif
And she will also have to survive a lot of dry air just ahead of her.You can see that here: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-animated.gif
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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MikeC
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12Z curves it to the north just after approaching the Northeastern Caribbean islands (but never crossing the islands) and then turns it to the north no US landfall, EURO doesn't keep it together, The Canadian Gem is the most interesting has it going through keys, then back over Ft. Myers and up the I-4 corridor around August 1st . (ala ), but this is one of the weaker models as far as accuracy go,.
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doug
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Trying to recall, but I think the Euro out performed the in the last storm. Still early on the models.
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doug
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panhandler
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It looks like it get get much larger considering what it is pulling up from the south and the clouds that appear to curve back into it from the north west. That is a hellish looking swath of drier air just ahead, not to mention windshear currently coming from the SW across the Caribean.
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Ed Dunham
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The 25/00Z run of the does ramp up the intensity after the five day point and the extended run brings Dorian well into the Bahamas before the turn to the north begins. Models are likely to bounce east or west from run to run on how far to the west Dorian will get. It looks like the upper level low near 23N 66W could become a major player in determining the eventual track of Dorian. It could pull up what might remain of the dry air to the north while fortifying a firm narrow ridge between the upper low and the tropical cyclone. At the 5-day point the puts the upper low near Bermuda at 300MB.
ED
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MikeC
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The 6Z animation) weakens Dorian a bit as it gets halfway to the Caribbean islands, but then regains as it goes just north of the Caribbean islands, through the southern Bahamas, and keeps it moving west, eventually into Southeast Florida and then turns it up the spine of Florida. Main feature causing this is the ridge north and misses a trough that would turn it more north early. This is a long time to keep it going west like that, possible, but I'm sure this will change over the next few days.
The euro loses dorian, around the same time the weakens it. As small and "healthy" as this storm is now, the Euro may not be a good indicator currently.
Climatology still suggests Dorian will curve before making it to the US, but currently there is enough evidence to support that it may not, so it will need to be watched this week and next. That said, odds are, that it will recurve before getting that far west. That said, those in the cone, Florida, and Southeast up through North Carolina will want to check back in next week.
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ftlaudbob
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I hope the is wrong on that one Mike.That would bring it right into my beach here.Looks like this storm will get a lot of attention in a few days.It certainly has my attention now. Looks like it will make it through to just north of PR,where it will have nice and warm SST's and low shear.Still a lot of time to watch this.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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MikeC
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12Z run of today keeps Dorian further south, and moves it over Puerto rico and Plows itself into Hispaniola and dies.
This run may be a bit too far south, but at the same time Dorian appears to be weakening today. With,based on visible satellite photos, the low level center possibly decoupling from the mid levels, which would allow for a further south track.
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doug
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Agreed, the RGB seems to represent the effects of shear. All convection now is being generated on the east half only. I bleieve the effects of this shear were part of the anticipated forecast for Dorian.
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doug
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ftlaudbob
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Yes,this was expected.Really just have to wait a few days to when it gets around PR and see what happens then.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Ed Dunham
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Actually I think that its suffering a little from some self-induced shear created by its rapid movement to the west. The low-level center has picked up some speed and is more or less racing ahead of the convection that is building through the mid and upper levels. Because of that separation from the primary convection and the strong ridge that continues to build to the north of the cyclone, the movement has become due west or more in line with the low-level easterlies. The outer feeder band to the west has actually become better formed in the past few hours and that would probably not happen if increasing westerly shear was hitting the system. With the rapid movement likely to continue for awhile, I suspect that Dorian will stay rather weak for a few days with its primary convection displaced just east of the low-level center.
ED
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ftlaudbob
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She now has completely recovered,and is looking very good.She has survived the cool SST'S and the shear.She will now be entering warmer SST'S and low shear.I think we will have our first Hurricane of the season in a few days.The 5PM forecast track remains the same.By the middle of next week SE Florida COULD be under the gun.This is still 3,000 miles away so there is plenty that can happen and plenty of time to watch her.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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