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This low may form next week, but it being so large, not sure which part will consolidate, may be weak, but could drive a lot of rain/wind toward the Bahamas and potentially Florida or the Southeast. Rip Currents, coastal flooding may occur as well.
It has a 20% chance to develop over the next 5 days right now.
Edited by MikeC (Mon Nov 07 2022 11:37 AM)
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MikeC
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0z today is showing it more concentrated as it crosses over the Bahamas, and makes landfall near Miami as atrong tropical storm (weighted toward the north/right) and then crosses over to Tampa as a Tropical Storm.
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MikeC
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12z today showing a cat 2 landfall in south Florida next Thursday, other models keep it a bit more broad, but it's definitely worth watching the system near the Bahamas.
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MikeC
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18z hits the treasure coast with an even stronger cat 2 early thursday morning. Euro is weaker, but takes it over Florida Wednesday afternoon.
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MikeC
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0z is more in line with the euro, but a little slower, much weaker on this newer run.
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MichaelA
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It’s really interesting that the models are locking onto this so early and well before any signs of development. The current environment doesn’t look very conducive to development right now either. We’ll see what and if anything will materialize in about 48 hours or so. At any rate, keep an eye on it.
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TanukiMario
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This morning's models seem to be converging on a system of some sort impacting South Florida on Thursday.
I thought we were done for the year ...
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MikeC
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6z has a cat 2 (approaching 3) arriving in South Florida near Boca pre-dawn Thursday morning.
0z Euro has a weaker system (TS or Cat 1) arriving in S. Florida near Boca Thursday morning
0z Canadian has a cat 1 scraping the coast near Flagler Beach then heading out along the coast (nearly clipping the outer Banks)
6z Icon has a cat 1 landfall near Melbourne pre-dawn Thursday morning.
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kapSt.Cloud
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Mike, people need to pay attention to the cone this time. They didn’t with Ian and needless deaths were the result! As of now the models are all over the place. Skirting Florida’s east coast, crossing Florida and into the Gulf taking it into the big bend, or even into Mississippi/ Alabama, etc. This one is similar to & Jean.
I’m aware this is the Forecast Lounge, but Mike I have to write the following in order to warn against complacency. People have to realize these storms have a mind of their own when it comes to strength at landfall. Zeta in 2020, according to the Weather Channel was to hit Mississippi with a Cat 1, 74 mph winds. She shocked everyone when making landfall as a low Cat 3! I’ll never forget Jim Cantore on the WC saying “I can’t wrap my head around this one! Cold water on the bottom, cold air on top and it increased to a Cat 3 at landfall!â€
At the time I lived across the street from the Gulf, but happened to be in Florida. My daughter was in my house and experienced the frightening ordeal of hearing part of my metal roof peeling back, the house on 16†concrete piers shaking, objects hitting the house, storm rain coming through the front door as if there wasn’t a door! I was on the phone with her when it hit! She grabbed my Yorkie and ran for the interior pantry. Thank God my neighbor took them in for 6 days as they had a whole house generator.
U.S. 90 became part of the Gulf. Zeta also caused many interior tornadoes which did tremendous damage to structures. So folks, pay heed to the warnings. Keep your eyes on the cone. And…if told to evacuate…EVACUATE!! Those who survived Camille in Mississippi and didn’t evacuate during …didn’t survive.
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OrlandoDan
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Best to keep a constant watch on this one. It's too soon after Ian. East Central Florida is still underwater.
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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)
Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67
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CFHC
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Loc: East Central Florida
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Hurricane watches up, 12Z has it in coming as a tropical storm now, however, but the official forecast is a hurricane. It's probably going to be borderline. Sut still quite a strong wind gradient north of it regardless so coastal flooding/surge is going to be a big issue on the east coast (and maybe part of the NE Gulf around the Big Bend)
Edited by MikeC (Mon Nov 07 2022 06:07 PM)
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JMII
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Given its current structure its hard to believe this becoming at Cat 2 or even a Cat 1... but that's why I don't work for the .
As I said in the other post - late season storms always come from the SW not the E, so this is a very odd track but the models all agree. Being sub-tropical the TS wind field is massive, the has it 275 out from the center (all to the E right now). If accurate this means the nearly the whole E coast of FL will get TS winds. So our trailer in St James City got flooded now our condo in Vero is going to get it... UGH.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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kapSt.Cloud
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According to the Nicole is expected to “merge with a cold front by the middle part of this week.†IMO, not soon enough. Read above what I wrote about Zeta which hit LA & MS on Oct. 28-29, 2020. Never depend on weather forecasters’s reports as being gospel. Zeta became a Cat 1 and was not expected to intensify. Not much to be concerned about as we are Floridians and at the time living in Long Beach, MS across the street from the Gulf. Zeta proved to us hurricanes can be sneaky and she belied the “confirmed†reports by becoming a low Cat 3 at landfall!
Nicole is expected to become a hurricane. How strong at landfall? Cat 1? Cat 2? or maybe another Zeta? Who knows for certain? You are more knowledgeable about the weather than I am so your statement about “late season storms always come from the SW not the E†could turn out to be a blessing with Nicole. At this time of year the Atlantic waters are cooler than the Gulf waters.
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MikeC
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One of the challenging things about this is the pressure gradient with the high around Virginia, which may drive up winds higher than typical for the TS pressure on the north side. Which is what I'm concerned about the most. I.e. pressure may be 990, but you still get cat 1 winds because of the gradient. If it dips to low 80s or mid 70s, cat 2 becomes possible, that added with the really wide wind field on the north means a ton of surge flooding along the coast.
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JMII
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Quote:
At this time of year the Atlantic waters are cooler than the Gulf waters.
Yes this storm 2 months ago would be 10X more worrisome.
Based on observations Nicole is trending south of forecast however this "S" approach is going to make figuring out landfall very tricky. Normally tropical systems will curve and you wait for that turn. With this projected path there are two turns, if either of these turns are early or late the center's exact location will be very different - so "watching the line" truly doesn't apply here - anywhere between Miami and Daytona doesn't matter as the weather will be similar however it will be stronger on the N side just due to onshore flow.
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Reef Road Rick
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As Nicole approaches the Florida east coast it crosses very warm Bahamian waters and don't forget about the Gulfstream and all the calories there. So just sayin - don't count out a late intensification before landfall.
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IsoFlame
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Quote:
One of the challenging things about this is the pressure gradient with the high around Virginia, which may drive up winds higher than typical for the TS pressure on the north side. Which is what I'm concerned about the most. I.e. pressure may be 990, but you still get cat 1 winds because of the gradient. If it dips to low 80s or mid 70s, cat 2 becomes possible, that added with the really wide wind field on the north means a ton of surge flooding along the coast.
What is most worrisome hear in Daytona Beach Shores (ground zero for Ian damage on Fla's east coast) is the compromised condition of the beach for what will likely be a very significant coastal erosion event from the gradient wind field north of where Nicole landfalls. We lost 3' depth x 50-75' westward of sand where sea walls collapsed or there were no sea walls.. In the absence of beach re-nourishment (which to my understanding is not an option where sea walls are in place per Army Corp specs), it may take several years of calm hurricane and nor'easter free conditions for significant sand accumulation sea ward of the sea wall. Irma (2017) actually deposited more sand, and dune vegetation had re-established, but Dorian (2019) obliterated the fledgling dune and vegetation.
This back to back onslaught is close to a worse case scenario for Volusia's beaches- the economic driver for the county's tourist-orientated economy. Beach driving- previously a politically charged issue- may ultimately be decided by Mother Nature.
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
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IsoFlame
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low level water vapor loop
mid level water vapor loop
Dry air surrounds Nicole in the lower and mid levels. Unless the atmosphere moistens up by mid-week, this could restrict convective consolidation and inhibit the transition to purely tropical over favorable 80+ SST's, keeping the system from becoming a hurricane prior to landfall.
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
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kapSt.Cloud
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The , , , HMON and HDRF models are definitely converging at this point and early on. It appears over Lake Okeechobee or over the northern part of the lake. Any farther south would be more devastation for Southwest Florida. I wasn’t aware your St. James City home was flooded. I thought just minor damage. Being flooded meant a high storm surge as yours is on piers.
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JMII
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Quote:
Dry air surrounds Nicole in the lower and mid levels. Unless the atmosphere moistens up by mid-week, this could restrict convective consolidation and inhibit the transition to purely tropical over favorable 80+ SST's, keeping the system from becoming a hurricane prior to landfall.
Agreed, it needs a lot of help to develop a tropical core. Today it moved faster then predicted and is forecast to accelerate a bit more so it might out run the main moisture bubble.
Quote:
I wasn’t aware your St. James City home was flooded. I thought just minor damage. Being flooded meant a high storm surge as yours is on piers.
We think it had maybe 12†of surge… mold took over so we didn’t go inside to verify. It was “minor†but not worth trying to salvage.
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