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Fabian
For the moment, Fabian seems to have reached his peak and declined a bit. Perhaps he is going through an eyewall replacement cycle because the eye is no longer well defined on visible imagery. Winds down a notch to 105 knots and pressure up a notch to 956mb. Models initialized Fabian at 18.0N 51.6W at 31/12Z and I would have placed the storm at 18.0N 52.3W at 12Z - fairly close and probably indicates a slight increase in forward speed. Past history and current model output suggest that Fabian will attain a northwest motion late in the forecast period, thus removing the threat of landfall. From my perspective this makes Fabian the best type of major hurricane to track - fascinating to watch but remaining out of harms way. It is also worth noting that the magnitude and starting point of any eventual turn is still unknown - depends on the development of a weakness in the Atlantic ridge and on the extent of that development.

Added: At 15Z the eye has reformed and the previous intensities are maintained by .

Using the model output can sometimes be an interesting exercise to detect potential trends. I've selected the LBAR (for no particular reason) and its forecast coordinates for 04/12Z. Here is what I'm looking at:

30/12Z 120hr position forecast: 23.2N 66.2W
31/12Z 96hr position forecast: 23.8N 66.5W
01/12Z 72hr position forecast:
02/12Z 48hr position forecast:
03/12Z 24hr position forecast:
04/12Z Actual position report:

This will not only give you an idea of how the model is performing, it will hint at the model interpretation of trends, i.e., faster vs slower and/or more to the right or to the left of track.

One added afterthought: The 15Z forecast places the center at 19.3N 57.3W at 01/12Z. It will be interesting to see what the actual center location is at 12Z Monday morning, i.e., north or south of that latitude.

Grace:
Tough to comment on something that you can't find the center for. I can't recall when a named system was actually removed from the list as a result of post-season analysis, but this one would certainly seem to qualify as a reasonable candidate. At 12Z the obscured center (assuming that it has one) was somewhere within a 75 mile radius of 27.5N 94.5W. Grace is more than likely a strong open wave that will bring blustery winds and heavy rain squalls to the northern portions of the Texas coast and at least the western portions of the Louisiana coast. Movement of the wave appears to be more to the north northwest.

Added: At 15Z downgraded Grace to a Tropical Depression.

As always, your thoughts and counterpoints are encouraged.

ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Aug 31 2003 03:04 PM)

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