Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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TD 12, currently about 150 miles south of Apalachicola, is likely to become Tropical Storm Henri later tonight. The Depression has maintained good structure throughout the day and is showing signs of improved organization this evening. Rather than retyping my thoughts, here is what I distributed to my Weather Alert list earlier this evening:
"Yesterday evening Tropical Depression 12 formed in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The Depression will strengthen to a Tropical Storm within the next 12 hours as it moves slowly eastward at 7mph. The next name on the list is Henri and the probable path across the peninsula is from Tampa to Cape Canaveral. The storm will probably maintain tropical storm strength as it crosses Florida, but only as a minimal tropical storm. Winds late Friday night through early Saturday afternoon will be southwesterly at 25mph with some gusts in squalls to 40mph in the east central Florida area. Winds early Friday in the west central Florida area are likely to be at tropical storm strength from 40 to 50mph as the storm makes landfall near Tampa. The real threat from this system is heavy rain leading to flooding conditions across the central peninsula. Heavy rain is likely for the west central Florida area on Friday while the timeframe for east central Florida would be from Friday afternoon through late Saturday morning. I would expect rainfall amounts along the west central Florida area of 5 to 7 inches while amounts should be lower, 2 to 4 inches, in the east central Florida area. There is a possibility that the storm could stall off the east central Florida coast before the system resumes a northeastward track into the Atlantic."
Here is the analysis behind some of the comments. I realize that the 00Z model outputs take the system on more of a northeasterly course, no doubt based on the frontal system to the north capturing the cyclone as it moves across the peninsula. Satellite imagery suggests that this is not likely to happen - at least not for a day or two. Over the past 8 hours, TD 12 has been moving to the east (actually just south of due east) at about 6 or 7mph and this same motion can be observed in the seabreeze induced band along and just offshore of the Florida east coast. The west southwest winds over the storm are still there, although not quite as strong this evening so the shear is relaxing. An eventual east northeast track across Florida seems more realistic.
The core of the storm is small and continues to fluctuate in intensity so the time period for heavy rainfall should not be as great as some others are speculating. Don't misunderstand this though - even two or three inches over saturated ground will create a flood condition.
As Fabian approaches Bermuda on Friday - probably passing just east of the Island - and then pulls off more to the northeast, he is likely to build a ridge southward in his wake. This ridge could stall soon to be Henri off the Florida east coast. If this happens, I guess that I'll have to reserve my right to quickly change my thoughts on the rainfall amounts for east central Florida. If the stall is close to the coast, it could significantly extend the period of heavy rainfall over the east central peninsula. Right now I'm banking on the ridge not building quickly enough to put the brakes on the new tropical storm.
If some of you have rainfall or wind measuring equipment, it would be interesting to see posts from various locations across the state on what you measured or observed from this tropical system.
Cheers,
ED
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Steve H.
Unregistered
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Great analysis Ed...per usual. Yes it seems the TD is a bit further south than forecast, but looking at the movement during the day, its no surprise. So the winds should freshen up a bit here tomorrow. Will be interesting to see if Henri stalls offshore Brevard beaches. I guess that would bring the rain and wind up. But as you said that's probably a long shot, as it will likely move further NE than the immediate coast. What part of the day do you foresee landfall?? Noon tomorrow or later?? Cheers!!
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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youve more or less got my short term path. i was thinking cedar key earlier, but now it seems further south. long term i'm not so sure it will be going out past hatteras... might just linger off the east coast until the ridge builds back. keep in mind the storm is staying on the southern edge of the westerly flow and may never really get hung in them.. might just nudge along until the ridging builds back.
HF 0431z05september
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