Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2003/aug2003/
Interesting report from the doc who says that we can expect a more normal season after the active june and july.Also the landfalls at the US coastline will be above average from the past centurie.If you want to comment about what Dr Gray said please do so to see what all here think.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Well I don't quite know what to make of Dr Gray's latest update. He maintained the total number of named storms at 14, but reduced the number of named storm days from 70 (in his May update) to 60 in this latest update. He also noted that he expected storms to generally be of shorter duration but forecasted a higher than normal probability of risk for the Caribbean islands. When you consider that the Caribbean islands are normally at risk because of CV systems, and that CV systems are long duration systems (although not necessarily at TS strength or greater for their entire journey across the pond), I'm a bit perplexed at his new 'storm day' numbers.
His statistical analysis indicated 55 storm days and a total of 11 named storms - which is still an above-normal season. Normally, 60 storm days would equate to 12 (or perhaps 13) named storms, but not 14. The now hints at what could become yet another significant factor, i.e., wind shear - or rather a significant decline in wind shear over almost all of the tropical Atlantic basin - and all of that in the next two days!
Atlantic 48-hour Wind Shear Forecast
If this forecast becomes reality, and the reality of lower wind shear becomes a trend for the remainder of the season, the likelyhood would be for an increase in the number of named storm days rather than a decrease. You could still end up with fewer storms, but with an aggregate increase in the number of named storm days due to longer storm duration at TS strength or greater.
As a side note, TSR updated their forecast for the season a few days ago:
Tropical Storm Risk
Cheers,
ED
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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I'm not sure what TSR is doing. They're making the same mistake that everyone else is. From what I could tell, they're using wind currents as primary prediction tools. But this year, things are being driven by Atlantic Ocean water temperatures in absence of other overriding factors and the NAO. They're missing the boat, but since they're using objective reasoning, their numbers are FAR LOWER for landfalls than what we will see before this season is through. We've had 2 of 4 named storms already make landfall - a Cat 1+ or 2- and a fairly strong tropical storm. Unless I'm mistaken, almost every system (except 1 or 2) that formed in the Western Pacific has made landfall in the islands and/or mainland of Asia. And while there's no clear-cut direct relationship between the Western Pacific and Western Atlantic, if one looks at the landfall pattern over there, it's not much of a jump to conclude that the SE should be under the gun. The coast of Japan is usually considered a teleconnection to North Carolina. If you consider the Philipines somewhat analagous (sp?) to S FL and the Greater Antilies, then put 2 and 2 together. You guys are going to get smacked before the season is out. So will the NE Gulf Coast. And I'm pretty sure Louisiana has a few body shots to take before mid-October. We got dumped on for Bill and a band from Claudia, but my money says the season is far from over for LA and MS.
Cyclone-I,
I didn't read Dr. Gray's August updates, only his numbers (as reported on the web). Although he reduced named storm days (presumably because of an anticipated shorter duration/liefspan for storms), I'll bet the season finishes within his range (60-70). A cautionary note is that if there are fewer named storm days within our current pattern, that even indicates number of storms that form pretty far west leading to a US Landfalling rate that could rival last year's.
We shall see.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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