Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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98L thoughts:
1. Convection is perdominant on one side of the low pressure area, this has been very common this year. We haven't seen too many low pressure areas with robust thunderstorm activity in all quadrants.
2. A *possible* subtropical start. Many systems have become tropical this year after going through subtropical stages. *If* this system remains hybrid/subtropical for more than 24-36 hours, a repeat of an Earl type storm will be possible. Why? On to number 3...
3. Subtropical storms tend to intensify more via high shearing environments. This is one of the reasons why these systems tend to have their strongest convection and winds on one side of the low. Earl was under high shear from Hurricane Isis in the Eastern Pacific-Earl strengthened to an 85-knot hurricane nontheless. Earl had more of an elongated structure even at peak itensity.
4. Broad wind structure typical of hybrid/subtropical systems. Earl had most of the convection on it's east side. It hit the Florida Panhandle but I remembr we felt heavy rains, tornadoes, and high winds here in Orlando despite the fact the Earl's center made landfall well north and west of here. Basically, subtropical and hybrid storms can be more potent than maximum sustained winds indicate.
We'll know a lot more by late tonight after recon flies in. All interests from Pensicola to Naples need to keep a close on the situation.
Kevin 
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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one big difference here.. earl didnt have subsidence nudging up against it quite so hard. got fairly well organized before the shearing started, too. 98L has neither of these conveniences.. if it can organize i'm thinking something like harvey '99 or josephine '96.
convection really slacked off this evening, too. what that probably means is we get another weak persistent system that maybe rains a lot but never develops much. big wonder here is how well it recovers and develops, not what its limits will be... they are pretty low.
earl.. i was near charleston at the time and remember a couple of good rain squalls. the system was as it came by, with all of the weather ahead of the low. earl was taken up in a pretty strong late summer amplification.. something that will miss 98L. thats another difference.
HF 2348z11september
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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At 12/00z, recon centered TD9 at 26.2N 86.7W. Core temp was 23C, so I think that this system will be considered tropical. Shear is still a problem, but lopsided systems are more the rule in the Gulf rather than the exception. TD9 is just about stationary and will likely stay that way for another 12-18 hours - it may wander some, but not much, after which a general northeast motion seems likely. Will be interesting to see if this one builds its convection during the afternoon rather than early morning. I think that it will slowly develop into Hanna, but I'd guess that its about 24 hours away, i.e., late Thursday afternoon, before it attains tropical storm strength. Initial recon found a central pressure of 1001mb. The analogy to Harvey seems like a good one.
Cheers,
ED
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