Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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An upper level low pressure system located about 1200 miles southwest of the Azores has been drifting slowly westward for the last couple of days and has developed a surface gale circulation near 26.4N 44.4W at 27/12Z. The gale center is currently stationary with good low level banding features, however , significant convection is removed to the north through east of the center. Wind shear is nil to light southwesterly in the area of the storm center and is expected to remain that way through Sunday evening.
Development of a late season subtropical storm is possible over the weekend.
ED
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Storm Cooper
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http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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I don't feel that the current storm will form anything, just not enough moisture to be synthesized. That seems to be the limiting factor in this scenario.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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I'm quite frankly surprised would even issue this invest. Suppose it needs to be monitored, but I'm calling it DOA.
Ed, can you post the "when will the last hurricane of the season be" thread...I can't seem to find it...thought it was in the Storm Forum...maybe I just missed it.
Cheers.
Post number 15197 by Cycloneye in the Storm Forum on June 10th.
Cheers,
ED
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Nov 28 2004 02:40 AM)
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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Looks like we could have Tropical or Subtropical Storm Otto later today
Atlantic satellite
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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rabbit is right about the status of our cutoff low. deep convection has been bursting near 93L's center since about 10 or 11z. right now it looks about as good as nicole ever did. i don't know if is going to bother, but this system does merit classification.
HF 1539z28november
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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Atlantic satellite image
looks very possible, if decides to do their jobs this time, that we will have Otto at 11 pm if not before
it is actually beginning to look very similar to the post analysis subtropical system of 2001
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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That can be taken two ways "If the does their jobs" they're not going to go crazy over a tiny disturbance, when we've had , , and Jeanne.
no need for anyone to go crazy.. just issue advisories if it's a tropical cyclone in their region of responsibility. that's what they do. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Sun Nov 28 2004 11:07 PM)
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Hurricane6
Unregistered
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Look at the ball of 80 minus convection...That is a over a well oreganized LLC. This system is moving west-northwestward.
A cold ld over a well defined . With Banding forming?=Tropical cyclone!!! http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html
This makes Tropical storm Matthew in Nicole to shame.
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Orlando, Florida
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28/1745 UTC 28.6N 45.0W ST2.5/2.5
Looks like we may have a subtropical cyclone out there by 11.
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James88
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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So it would seem. It appears that 2004 is about to draw its last gasp.
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Bloodstar
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Loc: Tucson, AZ
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Heh... Any idea what the SST's are in that region?
This is soooo not a case of "I told you so (cause I didn't *laughs*)," but as people have mentioned, stuff like this seems to happen. I'd be really impressed (not to mention suprised) if something serious developed (similar to Olga)
Yes, I'll beat the Olga example into the ground *grins*
Mark (9 - 2 Falcons ... woo!)
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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I was wrong...and I'll toast for that. "Never brag when right, but always admit to wrong when wrong" - Old chinese saying
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Bloodstar
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Loc: Tucson, AZ
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Quote:
I was wrong...and I'll toast for that. "Never brag when right, but always admit to wrong when wrong" - Old chinese saying
Nah, no apologies... it's still not going to become Otto 
Mark
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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What are you talking about, the storm should have been classified yesterday? It was physically 'Otto", at 11 pm, it had a , presistent convection, most likely an LLC, banding features etc. and the list goes on. Actually looks like it is going to perform an "Obi Wan effect"{tm JB}. Fortantely it's getting caught up in a trof, probably trigger a secondary low to form by Europe and affect them, nothing more...
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Bloodstar
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Loc: Tucson, AZ
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Quote:
What are you talking about, the storm should have been classified yesterday? It was physically 'Otto", at 11 pm, it had a , presistent convection, most likely an LLC, banding features etc. and the list goes on. Actually looks like it is going to perform an "Obi Wan effect"{tm JB}. Fortantely it's getting caught up in a trof, probably trigger a secondary low to form by Europe and affect them, nothing more...
Heh, I just think that the wasn't pervasive enough yesterday (or today) to really call it sub-tropical. though it's looking better as of last peek. Maybe I'm conservative, but I wouldn't have considered it to be strong enough to be called Otto ... though it's really close ...
(I'm just here to learn... and if i'm smoking some good c***k, well, don't mind me *grins*)
so, am I total c***k smoker by thinking that 93L isn't Otto yet?
edited to remove illegal substance reference-danielw
sorry bout that, just slightly self-denigrating humor -mark... ps... is there anyone who can edit the references in the actual poll?
Edited by Bloodstar (Tue Nov 30 2004 05:45 AM)
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Bloodstar
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Loc: Tucson, AZ
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I hope you don't mind me being a little silly there. It's nice to be able to have a (potentia)l storm out in the Atlantic and not have to worry about people dying from a monster.
(that and driving 1500 miles this weekend... I really am a little loopy... well more so than usal. *chuckles*
take care all
Mark
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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I voted yes. I can assure that post will be multilated by one of the RSVP's! That's fo sure! It had an area of very deep convection centered around the vort. max. , it has to have over 30 mph winds, that's a no brainer. Look how organized it was, with the banding features...
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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And not only that, but the also reognized it in their tropical outlook. My prespective has changed on this storm, while it may not be a strong storm like Olga, it will be there. It's odd to see something form that far west, within the subsidence of the Azores high but it does harbor a realitvely clam area of shear as opposed to some other areas.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Bloodstar
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Loc: Tucson, AZ
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*chuckles* really I promise I'll stop rambling one day... but I will say this:
If the doesn't declare this to be a Subtropical storm at 11PM, I'll be pretty shocked. the sucker still doesn't have a lot of convection, but it's getting there. wait for it...... wait for it....
heh
Mark
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