MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
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11:45PM Update
Recon flights have shown windspeed to be increasing in Jeanne.
You should not focus on the exact track within this map, the storm is a large area and the track may be off many miles. All areas in the warning area need to prepare.
Original Update
Hurricane Jeanne at 11 is moving at a brisk 12MPH westward, holdng its own, with a large eye right now.
The official track has moved left slightly, very close to West Palm Beach, which matches with the hurricane warning area. The strength at landfall is now projected to be category 3 strength at landfall.
A turn to the north is expected, but the question is how far west it will get before it does.
Event Related Links
You can find links to County Emergency Management offices at floridadisaster.org
Jeanne Color Satellite
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
All Current Hurricane Local Statements
Melbourne (East Central Florida) - Long Range Radar Loop
Miami (South Florida) - Long Range Radar Loop
Jacksonville (North Florida) - Long Range Radar Loop
Jeanne Models -- This image animated over time
Karl Models -- This image animated over time
Lisa Models -- This image animated over time
Jeanne Sphagehtti Model from BoatUS/Hurricane Alley
Jeanne Plots from Weather Underground
Jeanne Satelllite Image with track/radar Overlays
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Jacksonville.
Melbourne
General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps
Current Aircraft Recon Info (Decoded) thanks Londovir
Other Recon Info
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, , , JMA, , UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from Mid-Atlantic Weather
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Hurricanetrack.com (Mark Sudduth), HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
Edited by SkeetoBite (Sat Sep 25 2004 11:43 AM)
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Shalafi
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 123
Loc: Altamonte Springs
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I really don't like her...
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Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Pretty much what I expected. The new path bisects through Orlando. Looks like the landfall point on the coast did not shift much. Looks to be a tad bit south of Melbourne now. Looks to be another long day on Sunday.
I have to add that I am more concerned about flooding potential. More then a little worried that Reedy Creek may rise enough to take out Pleasent Hill Rd into Poinciana. That would make it impossible to get in and out of here becuase the only route out would be a two lane road to the south into Polk County.
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Jim
Edited by Rasvar (Sat Sep 25 2004 03:00 AM)
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tpratch
Moderator
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Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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Yeah, after this I might have to go find a Jeanne, date her and break her heart - you know? 
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Heather
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 91
Loc: Sebring, FL
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I'm looking at the Melbourne radar, something scary looking is on there. What is it??
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When it rains, it pours...
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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Jeanne has a large eye and the wind field is expanding. Last Air
Force reconnaissance plane in the area measured a minimum pressure
of 964 mb. Earlier a NOAA plane measured a peak wind of 107 knots
at flight level. Thereafter...an Air Force plane measured only 95
knots in the same area. T-numbers have not increased and remain at
5.0 on the scale. The initial intensity is kept at 85 knots
until new data comes from another plane currently approaching the
hurricane. The upper-level wind environment continues to be
favorable for strengthening as indicated by the hurricane's outflow
and raob data. This...in combination with a warmer ocean between
the Bahamas and Florida...suggests some strehgthening and Jeanne
could become a major hurricane before landfall.
The hurricane has been moving westward at about 10 knots. The strong
high north of the hurricane will continue to force Jeanne on this
general track for the next 12 to 24 hours. Thereafter...a gradual
turn to the northwest and north should begin as the high shifts
eastward. Althouh we are confident that the northward turn will
occur...only a few more hours of additional westward motion than
anticipated would bring the core of the hurricane farther inland
over the peninsula. On the other hand...the hurricane could also
make the turn earlier and slide along the East Coast of Florida. At
this time...all indications are that the hurricane will move inland
and will make the northward turn over the peninsula. This is based
on the latest available model guidance which in fact has shifted a
little bit westward. Even the which kept the core of the
hurricane over water is now keeping the huricane hugging the East
Coast of central and North Florida.
Forecaster Avila
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 25/0300z 26.5n 74.9w 85 kt
12hr VT 25/1200z 26.6n 76.8w 95 kt
24hr VT 26/0000z 27.2n 79.1w 100 kt
36hr VT 26/1200z 28.0n 81.0w 75 kt...inland
48hr VT 27/0000z 29.5n 81.8w 45 kt...inland
72hr VT 28/0000z 33.5n 80.5w 30 kt...inland
96hr VT 29/0000z 37.5n 75.0w 30 kt...over water
120hr VT 30/0000z 42.5n 66.0w 30 kt...over water
$$
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tpratch
Moderator
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Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
Pretty much what I expected. The new path bisects through Orlando. Looks like the landfall point on the coast did not shift much. Looks to be a tad bit south of Melbourne now. Looks to be another long day on Sunday.
Now that's really bad news.
South of Melbourne means Melbourne gets the "right" side of the storm again.
Fortunately, the only trees left in my yard are less than 10 feet tall - nothing left to blow over but the fence 
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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Heather,
That is probably false echos immediately around the radar that you are seeing.
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eva
Unregistered
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Go cast your vote for your favorite hurricane site HERE
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h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 91
Loc: South Merritt Island, FL
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Hey AngB...
oh yeah, I go running by there....you can see the back of our house as you are driving up S. Tropical - we are at the southernmost part of the subdivision. That one poster said 20k (maybe that was for the expensive rolldowns), we have over 20 windows and it was around 6k and we did the more expensive armour screen for the entire patio.
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Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station
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tpratch
Moderator
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Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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Sorry - I should've clarified. Yes it was for rolldowns - it seems that some of the local guys in that line of work are in it to get rich, rather than simply provide a good service at a fair price
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clueless
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 23
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Is Skeeterbite around to grace us with one of his way too cool maps?
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Web3
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 2
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Hi. I'm here in Vero Beach, boarded up, and considering getting out of town. Wife & stepdaughter already in Tampa.
I was about 7 miles due west of the in Miami when Andrew struck, I was listening to Bob Sheets when the radar dome blew off the building! here was a pretty intense experience. Enough is enough! I think I'll leave ..... unless this westerly track holds. OUr house did well in , and the trees got a free pruning. We'll see.
But: This is a great board, wonderful info, great links and a good bunch! Glad you are here.
Here is a link to a summary of the wind, gusts and pressure at Grand Bahama Island:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_wind_pres.php?station=spgf1&uom=E
As you can see, something is coming!
Once again, thank you all for your presence now, and during .
Web
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lilyv
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 31
Loc: Utah
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Nearly every house in Germany has the roll downs- rolladens. They don't cost nearly as much there, probably because they are planned into the house construction. It would be great if they were more available in Fla at a relatively reasonable rate. Seems like you should get a break on ins. if you have them.
As an alternative, I've know folks who use the professionally installed window film and feel it affords some level of protection. (And they make it in lots of nicer shades than the somewhat ugly mirror reflective type.)
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h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 91
Loc: South Merritt Island, FL
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Hey tpratch...yeah the roll-downs are very expensive...a house close to ours had an estimate of 35k! They are very nice if you can afford it or if you are not physically able to put up panels, but a couple hours of work to put up the panels (the heavier .063) is no problem. I love the armour screen on the patio...we can go out there during the height of the strorm and still see out to see what is going on...and it is rated WAY past the Miami-Dade standards.
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Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
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Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Had to stop for a minute to post this. This thing has exploded in size over the past 6 hours. Hurricane force winds extend 70 miles from center and Tropical storm force winds extend 205 miles from center (was 45/140 respectively).
About half the total land area of the state of florida will feel tropical storm force winds before the eye even reaches land. Follow all instructions of your local news and emergency management personnel!
New "close up" map in production...
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Web3
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 2
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Here is the bouy site:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SPGF1
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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I have the 3M Hurricane Protection Film on my house. I have over 62 windows in my house and some of them are on the third floor of a pretty pitched roof. So far the windows have held up to 125 MPH winds.. Not saying this is the best approach to protecting yourself, just saying that for me, until I can get enough funds to have automatic shutters, this has to do.. At least the glass wont go flying ..
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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I don't know about Skeet, but I really like the :
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ATL_11L.JEANNE_ssmi_gif_full.html
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danielw
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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P. AF968 1911A JEANNE OB 08
MAX FL WIND 110 KT SW QUAD 0233Z.
MDT TURBC IN EYEWALL
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