i looked at JB's stuff earlier... he showed some nice analogs to western gulf storms and how the ridging/surface weather there could combine to generate something. a couple of the models are tracking a vortmax/disturbance to the tx/mex border through thursday, so any pressure falls in the area will get the hype machine going.
just to pique other interests, i've got a hunch the next two may mention the wave at 45w. the 8am twd did, noting the swirl and modest increase in convection. i've been looking at it on vis closeup on the ghcc loop, and checking the upper charts ahead of it... if it can get free of the itcz, the ridging should move in tandem with it into the caribbean as a twin-vortex tutt feature swivels to a positively-tilted alignment. globals still ike that newly-emerged wave as well out near the cv islands.
really there is ridging from the boc up to east of hatteras.. any low level turning in the region can become suspect. watch for another low to run hatteras by mid week as well. any one of these little things can cause a stir.
HF 1609z27june